Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Cross-state variation in Medicaid programs and female labor supply

Using a pooled cross-section data set from the 1980 through 1993 Current Population Survey March Supplements, we test if different Medicaid benefit levels across states impact the labor supply behavior of female heads of households. The ordinary least square (OLS) results support the prediction that Medicaid expenditures reduce labor supply. Controlling for state fixed or random effects alters the effect of both AFDC and Medicaid on the decision to participate as well as the number of hours worked. We also find that while the effects of program generosity are sensitive to the inclusion of state effects those of variation in eligibility thresholds are not.     

Teaching and research in quantitative methods in university management schools

Much has been written and said about the education and development of operational researchers and management scientists from a specialist departmental viewpoint. Considerably less attention has been devoted to the role of management schools in this process and, more importantly, in their provision of a general education in quantitative methods for all their postgraduate taught course students. This paper aims to make a contribution towards rectifying this relative neglect. Moreover, it specifically contrasts the two sets of activities and argues that they are largely fulfilling different purposes and satisfying in the main different job markets. The paper also addresses some of the problems of management science researchers within a management school milieu.     

Modelling and measurement in retailing practice

The retailing sector has traditionally attracted the attention of economists and marketing specialists but only comparatively recently, at least in the UK, have management scientists become involved. Yet there is much of a measurement and modelling character in retailing to which the management scientist can contribute most usefully. This paper examines two areas of major practical importance to retailers: labour productivity, store location and size. Basic measurement and the establishment of standards can lead to considerable performance improvements in the first area. The second problem area is strategic rather than operational in essence and lends itself to either mathematical modelling or empirical techniques or to a combination of the two approaches.     

The chief executive and his information system

The authors examine the attitudes of British chief executives towards their information systems using recent survey evidence. They discuss the chief executive's individual computation needs and the extent to which he satisfies these personally, his attitudes towards computer-based information and corporate models, and his general informational and analytical requirements. Of particular interest, is the relative contribution as judged by chief executives of intuitive judgement, computer-based analysis and manual analysis respectively to strategic decision-taking; comparative valuations of formal and informal information systems are also ascertained. On the evidence provided by the chief executives, future prospects for computer systems and modelling techniques at strategic level are generally sound although it is difficult to see them achieving the dominance at top managerial level once envisaged by the more optimistic and imaginative management scientists and cyberneticians.     

Designing a capital budgeting system that works

Conventional capital budgeting systems do not fully reflect or adequately respond to the way in which capital expenditure decisions are actually made. Evidence also exists that the nature of this decision process is dependent on the type of the organization. This paper describes an empirically developed understanding of how capital expenditure decisions are being made, identifies ways to support and improve these decisions, and proposes an approach to linking the design of capital budgeting systems with the type of organization in which they are to operate.     

Evaluating the benefits of formal planning systems

While empirical studies indicate that formal planning influences corporate effectiveness, no systemic understanding exists regarding how and why formalization of the planning activity affects corporate performance. This article proposes a framework for analyzing the impact of formalization on the quality of the planning exercise.It is suggested that by formalizing the planning activity, certain benefits accrue which cannot result from informal planning. Also, the intrinsic purposes of planning are furthered in several ways by formalization. However, there are also disadvantages resulting from formalization, some inherent and some arising from faulty design. The consequences of formalization with respect to the generally accepted purposes of planning are examined and a checklist intended to help designers develop more effective formal planning systems is proposed.     

Children with disabilities and disaster preparedness: a case study of Christchurch

An estimated seven million children with disabilities worldwide are affected by disasters annually. This significant figure emphasises the particular vulnerability of these children in facing natural hazards. However, their needs as well as their capacity and role in disaster risk reduction have largely been overlooked by researchers and policymakers. This paper draws on a case study in Christchurch to identify insights, realities, possibilities and obstacles in relation to the involvement in disaster preparedness of children with diverse disabilities. It reports on findings from focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with children who have disabilities, their teachers and caregivers to explore children's preparedness and potential responses to a disaster. The findings indicate a considerable variation in how children with disabilities access available resources and perceive, face and cope with natural hazards. This paper shows their potential contribution to disaster preparedness and provides further suggestions for policy and practice.     

Planning models in the UK: A survey

This paper presents the results of a survey on the use of computer-based models in the broad areas of planning and strategy formulation in UK companies. This survey updates and complements other recent surveys, which exclusively considered the use of corporate models, and shows a continued increase in the numbers of these models in use. In particular, models in the following broad categories were examined: forecasting, marketing, personnel, production and models of ‘one-off’ situations, as well as corporate and financial models. For such models the paper includes details of: frequencies of occurrence and relationship to company size; professional roles of the model-builders and users respectively; frequencies of use. In these and more subjective ways, the survey attempts to assess the place and value of computers in planning.