MONEY DEMAND DURING HYPERINFLATION AND STABILIZATION: BOLIVIA, 1980–1988

This paper examines the demand for money in Bolivia during the 1980s, a decade of extreme instability with annual inflation rates reaching over 20,000 percent, and a subsequent stabilization, with annual rates falling to less than 25 percent and remaining so for more than five years.
Our empirical analysis makes use of error-correction approaches, time-varying-parameter estimation with Kalman filtering, and GARCH models of expected inflation and inflation variance. We find that expected inflation and inflation uncertainty both matter for money demand. Time-varying estimates show that the reaction to monetary disequilibria was significantly faster during hyperinflation.     

ON THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE SAMPLE MEAN AND TRANSLATION-INVARIANT STATISTICS FOR MATRIX NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

We present an explicit characterization of the joint dependency structure of an n×p matrix normal random matrix such that the p-dimensional sample mean vector is independent of all translation invariant statistics.     

QUESTION WORDING AND PARTISANSHIP: CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PARTY LOYALTIES DURING THE 1992 ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Gallup macropartisanship varies more over time than aggregatemeasures of partisanship employing the standard Michigan SurveyResearch Center (SRC) party identification measure, but previousanalyses do not provide direct evidence about why Gallup macropartisanshipis more variable. Although these differences could result fromthe short-term focus of the Gallup party affiliation question,aggregate-level analyses cannot test the effects of questionwording directly. Between March and October 1992, we conducteda series of question-wording experiments, employing six statewidecomputer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) surveys of Michiganadults, including a four-wave panel study. Our analyses stronglysuggest that the Gallup measure responds more to short-termpolitical conditions and clearly demonstrate that the Gallupmeasure is less stable over time. These individual-level resultshelp explain why Gallup macropartisanship varies more over timethan aggregate measures of partisanship employing the standardSRC measure and raise questions about the degree to which onecan generalize from analyses using the Gallup data to the researchliterature on party identification.     

The Canadian syndrome of regional polarities: an obituary

Les études dans lesquelles il est question des différences entre les régions du Canada mentionnent souvent un phénomène appelé le «syndrome des polarités»; il s'agit de la tendance à l'augmentation, d'est en ouest, des taux de plusieurs indicateurs sociaux, dont le divorce, le suicide et la criminalité. L'auteur de cette communication, estimant que ce syndrome appartient plutǒt à l'histoire, démontre que les taux de suicide et de divorce convergent dans toutes les régions canadiennes depuis 1921 et met cette tendance en relation avec les résultats d'une analyse récente des taux de criminalité régionaux. The ‘syndrome of polarities’ whereby rates for social indicators such as divorce, suicide, and crime rise from east to west is often noted in studies of Canadian regional differences. There are, however, reasons to view this polarity as an historical remnant, and the paper shows a convergence in regional suicide and divorce rates since 1921. The trend is tied in with a recent analysis of regional crime rates.     

WHO GETS THE NEWS? ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF NEWS RECEPTION AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH

This article investigates patterns in audience reception of16 news stories that received prominent media coverage in thesummer and fall of 1989. Using a national sample of Americanadults, it compares education, self-reported rates of mediause, interpersonal communication, and prior levels of generalpolitical knowledge as predictors of individual differencesin recall of current news events. Results indicate that respondents'background level of political knowledge is the strongest andmost consistent predictor of current news story recall acrossa wide range of topics, suggesting that there is indeed a generalaudience for news and that this audience is quite sharply stratifiedby preexisting levels of background knowledge. Thus, in surveyresearch applications that require estimates of individual differencesin the reception of potentially influential political communications,a measure of general prior knowledge—not a measure ofnews media use—is likely to be the most effective indicator.The article further concludes that the tendency of individualsto acquire news and information on a domain- or topic-specificbasis fails to undermine the value of political knowledge asa general measure of propensity for news recall.     

RESPONSE-TIME MEASUREMENT IN SURVEY RESEARCH A METHOD FOR CATI AND A NEW LOOK AT NONATTITUDES

The paper introduces a methodology for measuring accuratelythe time it takes respondents to answer questions in computer-assistedtelephone surveys. The methodology, which is completely invisibleto respondents, comprises a computer "clock," capable of timingresponses with millisecond accuracy, and a "voice-key" thatconverts sounds emitted by respondents into signals capableof triggering the computer clock. Response times to questionson a range of attitude questions, including stable and unstableattitudes, were measured. The results revealed orderly normsin the latencies associated with various types of survey questions.The latencies associated with the expression of stable and unstableattitudes are discussed in the context of the notion of "nonattitudes"and shed new light on this controversial thesis. Overall, ourresults demonstrate that response latencies can be measuredprecisely and reliably in telephone surveys and that the datafrom such measurement open new windows on the cognitive dynamicsof survey responses.     

IDENTITY POLITICS, PARTISANSHIP, AND VOTING FOR WOMEN CANDIDATES

In 1992 a record 14 women sought statewide office by running"as women" and as representatives of women. In this articlewe examine whether their appeals led to widespread vot ing onthe basis of gender identity. We find evidence that the sexof the voter is significantly related to voting for female candidatesin eight of 13 states, and among partisans of both parties aswell as Independents. Further, we find that these effects areamplified by Democratic female candidates who are rated as mostfeminist, and that this is especially the case for those withno partisan attachments.     

The Consequences of Validated and Self-Reported Voting Measures

This paper reports on the results of validation of the self-reportedregistration status and voting behavior of respondents in the1976 and 1978 American National Election Studies. The resultsindicate about one in seven of the respondents misreported theirregistration status or voting behavior. Comparative analysesare conducted using simple regression models to see if differencesin their explanatory power arise using validated and self-reporteddependent variables. The results show that there are no majorchanges in the fundamental nature of basic relationships thathave been observed since the first surveys were conducted. Analysisof the effects of overreported participation on estimates ofthe partisan division of the vote in three sets of subnationalcontests reveals a likely "bandwagan" effect. . Portions of the data utilized in this article were made availableby the Inter-university Consortium for Political and SocialResearch. The data for the 1976 and 1978 American National ElectionStudies were originally collected by the Center for PoliticalStudies of the Institute for Social Research. The Universityof Michigan, under a grant from the National Science Foundation.Neither the original collectors of the data nor the Consortiumbear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretationspresented here. The comments of an anonymous reviewer, whichresulted in a fruitful extension of the analysis, are gratefullyacknowledged.     

WHICH JOURNAL RANKINGS BEST EXPLAIN ACADEMIC SALARIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

The ranking of an academic journal is important to authors, universities, journal publishers, and research funders. Rankings are gaining prominence as countries adopt regular research assessment exercises that especially reward publication in high‐impact journals. Yet even within a rankings‐oriented discipline like economics there is no agreement on how aggressively lower‐ranked journals are down‐weighted and in how wide is the universe of journals considered. Moreover, since it is typically less costly for authors to cite superfluous references, whether of their own volition or prompted by editors, than it is to ignore relevant ones, rankings based on citations may be easily manipulated. In contrast, when the merits of publication in one journal or another are debated during hiring, promotion, and salary decisions, the evaluators are choosing over actions with costly consequences. We therefore look to the academic labor market, using data on economists in the University of California system to relate their lifetime publications in 700 different academic journals to salary. We test amongst various sets of journal rankings, and publication discount rates, to see which are most congruent with the returns implied by the academic labor market. (JEL A14, I23, J44)