Characteristics of a central change programme within a governmental bureaucracy: a grounded theory study

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to present a theory of organisational change within the setting of a governmental bureaucracy. Design/methodology/approach Orthodox grounded theory is employed in the setting of a change programme in 12 Audit departments of the Dutch Ministries (public-sector). Findings The examined organisational change has specific characteristics. The Dutch ‘ministerial autonomy’ and the clearly recognizable role types of the key figures involved have a strong impact on the change programme and the realisation of its goals. Research limitations/implications Findings are derived on the basis of a substantive case study of the change programme of the Dutch Departmental Audit function. The research sheds new light on characteristics related to the occupational group of Chartered Accountants and characteristics of a governmental bureaucracy and it helps to understand change programmes within this bureaucracy. Practical implications The grounded theoretical model draws attention to the impact of key figures and circumstances on a change programme within the central government. Originality/value The paper builds on theories of organisational change but applies them in the typical context of the Dutch civil service where ministerial autonomy, on the one hand, and a move in the direction of more centrally organised activities (concern idea), on the other, require a difficult balancing act of all players in the change arena.     

Rolling with the shakes: an insight into teenagers’ perceptions of recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes

Natural disasters are harmful worldwide events that inflict multiple psychosocial impacts on disaster-exposed individuals. A significant proportion of affected individuals are teenagers (13–18 years old) who, compared with adults, have been historically overlooked in disaster research. The literature is particularly sparse concerning teenagers’ recovery from natural disasters, specifically what recovery means to them and the contributing factors towards their positive recovery. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to gain deeper insight into this largely unexplored area by conducting five focus groups with teenagers (16–18 years) who experienced at least one of the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes since and including the initial September 2010 earthquake. This study directly asked teenagers about their recovery over the three years after the initial earthquakes, with data being analysed using thematic analysis. Two main themes were identified: (1) perceptions of recovery, with three sub-themes (i) knowledge and being less frightened, (ii) talking about the earthquakes and (iii) shift in perspectives; and (2) contributing factors to recovery, with three sub-themes (i) participation in the community response, (ii) returning to school and (iii) the rebuild of Christchurch. These factors provide insight into how we can better support the recovery process for disaster-exposed teenagers to reduce long-term distress.     

Forecasting in conditions of uncertainty

Has the business environment grown in uncertainty? In this paper the authors suggest that the root problem is not uncertainty but the malevolence of events these past few years. In turn, this has made uncertainty and the techniques developed to cope with its consequences all the more important to the firm. But while improved forecasting may take the difference between a potentially profitable project and corporate disaster, good forecasting by itself is not enough. Most firms would benefit from examining their forecasting performance in relation to strategic decisionmaking and the various options available. The authors conclude that only in an organization where integration between expert forecaster and forecast user has been achieved can the full benefits of improved forecasting be realized.     

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Restrictiveness and guidance have been proposed as methods for improving the performance of users of support systems. In many companies computerized support systems are used in demand forecasting enabling interventions based on management judgment to be applied to statistical forecasts. However, the resulting forecasts are often ‘sub-optimal’ because many judgmental adjustments are made when they are not required. An experiment was used to investigate whether restrictiveness or guidance in a support system leads to more effective use of judgment. Users received statistical forecasts of the demand for products that were subject to promotions. In the restrictiveness mode small judgmental adjustments to these forecasts were prohibited (research indicates that these waste effort and may damage accuracy). In the guidance mode users were advised to make adjustments in promotion periods, but not to adjust in non-promotion periods. A control group of users were not subject to restrictions and received no guidance. The results showed that neither restrictiveness nor guidance led to improvements in accuracy. While restrictiveness reduced unnecessary adjustments, it deterred desirable adjustments and also encouraged over-large adjustments so that accuracy was damaged. Guidance encouraged more desirable system use, but was often ignored. Surprisingly, users indicated it was less acceptable than restrictiveness.     

Use of a case study in sequencing/scheduling research

This paper describes a study of an industrial sequencing/scheduling problem. The study contains the definition of the problem, data requirements and examination of solution technique. Definition of the problem is discussed from the aspect of uniqueness of the specific system. Discussion of data requirements includes availability and accuracy, while examination of solution technique considers limitation of time, computer capacity, etc., as well as the possibility of imbedding available algorithms into the solution procedure. Conclusions are presented relative to the use of the case study approach in sequencing/scheduling research.     

Human dynamics: A new approach to human behavior

This paper presents a new approach to analyze human behavior and more precisely human performance. It calls upon a system dynamics methodology to develop a general framework for looking at human beings. As an illustration of the approach, one subsystem is described. The global human system is also briefly presented. The contribution of such an approach is illustrated with an example dealing with the study of a worker performance subject to different types of control.     

What's an Oscar worth?

This article examines the impact of an Academy Award nomination and award for best picture, best actor/actress, and best supporting actor/actress on a film's (i) market share of theaters, (ii) average revenue per screen, and (iii) its probability of survival. The model is estimated using weekly box-office data for a matched sample of nominated and non-nominated films. The results indicate substantial financial benefits for a nomination and award for best picture and best actor/actress. The structure of rewards is consistent with that found in two-stage, single-elimination tournaments.     

Spouse selection and earnings: evidence of marital sorting

This article investigates economic bases for individuals'selection of marriage partners. Its central focus is matching of spouse pairs based on unobservable components of hourly earnings. Using a data extract from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we have observations of individuals'wages before and immediately after marriage, along with their spouses'earnings after marriage. We exploit the data to estimate the relation between spouses'wage residuals. The evidence supports positive marital matching on the basis of earnings. The results are robust with respect to variations in the statistical framework of the model.     

Impact of information exchange on supplier forecasting performance

Forecasts of demand are crucial to drive supply chains and enterprise resource planning systems. Usually, well-known univariate methods that work automatically such as exponential smoothing are employed to accomplish such forecasts. The traditional Supply Chain relies on a decentralized system where each member feeds its own Forecasting Support System (FSS) with incoming orders from direct customers. Nevertheless, other collaboration schemes are also possible, for instance, the Information Exchange framework allows demand information to be shared between the supplier and the retailer. Current theoretical models have shown the limited circumstances where retailer information is valuable to the supplier. However, there has been very little empirical work carried out. Considering a serially linked two-level supply chain, this work assesses the role of sharing market sales information obtained by the retailer on the supplier forecasting accuracy. Weekly data from a manufacturer and a major UK grocery retailer have been analyzed to show the circumstances where information sharing leads to improved forecasting accuracy. Without resorting to unrealistic assumptions, we find significant evidence of benefits through information sharing with substantial improvements in forecast accuracy.