Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.     

Political Experience and Fundraising in City Council Elections

Objective . Despite lack of attention from urban scholars, candidates' fundraising is a critical component of electoral politics in cities. In this research I evaluate the degree to which candidates' political experience is related to fundraising in city council elections. Methods . Multivariate regression is used to test models of city council fundraising in Chicago and Los Angeles. Results . In both cities, fundraising is a function of incumbency and prior experience as a political staff aide. Political endorsements are also important, especially those that come from incumbent politicians. The competitive environment also matters, as nonincumbents in open seat contests raise more than those who challenge incumbents. Conclusions . Fundraising in city council elections is shaped most notably by a combination of political experience and elite endorsements. For nonincumbents, the importance of prior experience on a political staff suggests a certain career trajectory for those seeking city council seats.     

STENO:an expert system for medical diagnosis based on graphical models and model search

Causal probabilistic models have been suggested for representing diagnostic knowledge in expert systems. This paper describes the theoretical basis for and the implementation of an expert system based on causal probabilistic networks. The system includes model search for building the knowledge base, a shell for making the knowledge base available for users in consultation sessions, and a user interface. The system contains facilities for storing knowledge and propagating new knowledge, and mechanisms for building the knowledge base by semi-automated analysis of a large sparse contingency table. The contingency table contains data acquired for patients in the same diagnostic category as the intended application area of the expert system. The knowledge base of the expert system is created by combining expert knowledge and a statistical model search in a model conversion scheme based on a theory developed by Lauritzen & Spiegelhalter and using exact tests as suggested by Kreiner. The system is implemented on a PC and has been used to simulate the diagnostic value of additional clinical information for coronary artery disease patients under consideration for being referred to coronary arteriography.     

Clinical Care of Gambling Disorders: Training, Experience, and Competence Among VHA Psychologists

Problem gambling is a common, highly destructive disorder which is often overlooked by clinicians. Levels of clinical training, clinical experience, and professional competence for providing clinical services for problem gambling were examined in a survey of 181 clinical psychologists working in the Veterans Healthcare Administration (VHA). The results suggest that the majority of clinical psychologists have little or no formal training and little or no past or current clinical experience in the treatment of disordered gambling, nor do they see themselves as competent to evaluate or treat patients with disordered gambling. Most have not referred patients for treatment of problem gambling and do not know of a competent provider to whom they can refer. There is an identifiable subgroup, representing 9% of respondents, who do have more training, provide services, and see themselves as competent to provide care for patients with problem gambling. The amount of formal training is positively correlated with care provided and self-ratings of competence. Despite the lack of training and experience, most respondents expressed interest in receiving additional training. These data suggest that to improve rates of diagnosis and treatment of patients with problem gambling in mental health settings, additional training needs to be made available for mental health providers as a group, with specialized training for clinicians interested in specializing in this area.     

A visual narrative analysis of children’s baby loss remembrance drawings

Children experiencing the death of baby brother or sister have reported individual, familial, and communicative challenges. Siblings also have indicated that the loss of a baby in their family enriched their lives despite their pain. The present study extends this work by focusing not only on siblings but also other children enmeshed in the family system. Additionally, we heed the call for the use of arts-based methods in family communication by performing a visual narrative analysis of children’s baby loss remembrance drawings. This analysis of 131 drawings completed by children ages zero to 18 yielded three main themes, including narration of identity, narration of life and death, and narration of growing sense-making. Two continua capture these themes, including the subject of narrativization and the mode of narrativization. In presenting these findings, we provide a unique (means of) understanding children’s experience of baby loss in the family.     

Scale direction effects in agree/disagree and item-specific questions: a comparison of question formats

The effect of the response scale direction on response behavior is a well-known phenomenon in survey research. While there are several approaches to explaining how such response order effects occur, the literature reports mixed evidence. Furthermore, different question formats seem to vary in their susceptibility to these effects. We therefore investigate the occurrence of response order effects in Agree/Disagree (A/D) and Item-Specific (IS) questions. We conducted an experiment among n = 930 students in which we varied the scale direction (decremental vs. incremental) within A/D and IS questions and asked respondents to evaluate the questionnaires. The results reveal response order effects within the A/D but not within the IS question format. Furthermore, respondent’s evaluations suggest that completion of the IS questionnaires requires more consideration than the completion of the A/D questionnaires. Altogether, our findings indicate that IS questions are more robust against response order effects than A/D questions.     

Life feeling scales for use in German and American samples

This paper describes an effort to construct social life feeling scales (self-determination, trust, future outlook, and so forth) for use in both American and German samples. Unidimensional scales (as defined) based on American respondents were modified as required to meet the same criteria in a German sample. Scales based on the German sample were modified as required to meet the same criteria among the American respondents. These modified scales were combined in order to meet given criteria of unidimensionality in both samples. Although combined scales meet (approximately) criteria of unidimensionality in both samples (German and American), the question of whether the feelings underlying these scales are identical in both populations remains.Financial support for this project was provided by Zentrum für Umfragen, Methoden und Analyzen, and Office of Research and Development, Indiana University.     

Disclosure of sexual assault experiences among undergraduate women at historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs)

ABSTRACT

Objective: To document the sexual assault disclosure experiences of historically black college or university (HBCU) students. Participants: A total of 3,951 female, undergraduate students at 4 HBCUs. Methods: All women at the participating schools were recruited in November 2008 to participate in a Web-based survey including both closed- and open-ended questions. Survey data were weighted for nonresponse bias. Results: The majority of sexual assault survivors disclosed their experience to someone close to them, but disclosure to formal supports, particularly law enforcement agencies, was extremely rare. Nonreporters had concerns about the seriousness of the incident and their privacy. On the basis of qualitative data, strategies identified by students to increase reporting included more education and awareness about sexual assault, more survivor services and alternative mechanisms for reporting, and better strategies for protecting the confidentiality of survivors. Conclusions: Official sexual assault victimization data are of limited utility in conveying the extent of sexual assault among HBCU students, and efforts to increase reporting, such as peer education and enhanced confidentiality procedures, are needed.     

A Bernstein inequality for exponentially growing graphs

In this article, we present a Bernstein inequality for sums of random variables which are defined on a graphical network whose nodes grow at an exponential rate. The inequality can be used to derive concentration inequalities in highly connected networks. It can be useful to obtain consistency properties for non parametric estimators of conditional expectation functions which are derived from such networks.