Dose‐Response Models Incorporating Aerosol Size Dependency for Francisella tularensis

The effect of bioaerosol size was incorporated into predictive dose‐response models for the effects of inhaled aerosols of Francisella tularensis (the causative agent of tularemia) on rhesus monkeys and guinea pigs with bioaerosol diameters ranging between 1.0 and 24 μm. Aerosol‐size‐dependent models were formulated as modification of the exponential and β‐Poisson dose‐response models and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood methods and multiple data sets of quantal dose‐response data for which aerosol sizes of inhaled doses were known. Analysis of F. tularensis dose‐response data was best fit by an exponential dose‐response model with a power function including the particle diameter size substituting for the rate parameter k scaling the applied dose. There were differences in the pathogen's aerosol‐size‐dependence equation and models that better represent the observed dose‐response results than the estimate derived from applying the model developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP, 1994) that relies on differential regional lung deposition for human particle exposure.     

Disaster Management from a POM Perspective: Mapping a New Domain

We have reviewed disaster management research papers published in major operations management, management science, operations research, supply chain management and transportation/logistics journals. In reviewing these studies, our objective is to assess and present the macro level “architectural blue print” of disaster management research with the hope that it will attract new researchers and motivate established researchers to contribute to this important field. The secondary objective is to bring this disaster research to the attention of disaster administrators so that disasters are managed more efficiently and more effectively. We have mapped the disaster management research on the following five attributes of a disaster: (1) Disaster Management Function (decision‐making process, prevention and mitigation, evacuation, humanitarian logistics, casualty management, and recovery and restoration), (2) Time of Disaster (before, during and after), (3) Type of Disaster (accidents, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, terrorism and wildfires etc.), (4) Data Type (Field and Archival data, Real data and Hypothetical data), and (5) Data Analysis Technique (bidding models, decision analysis, expert systems, fuzzy system analysis, game theory, heuristics, mathematical programming, network flow models, queueing theory, simulation and statistical analysis). We have done cross tabulations of data among these five parameters to gain greater insights into disaster research. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

A state-of-art survey of static scheduling research involving due dates

This paper provides a guided tour of those scheduling techniques in which the performance measures bear in one way or the other on job due dates. The classification is based on scheduling objectives. Within each category the theoretical developments and computational experiences have been reviewed.     

Some approaches to statistical analysis of a weather modification experiment

Data from a weather modification experiment are examined and a number of statistical analyses reported. The validity of earlier inferences is studied as are the utilities of various statistical methods. The experiment is described. The original analysis of North American Weather Consultants, who conducted the experiment, is reviewed. Data summarization is reported. A major approach to analysis is through the use of cloud-physics covari-ates in regression analyses. Finally, a multivariate analysis is discussed. It appears that the covariates may have been affected by treatment (cloud seeding) and that their use is invalid, not only reducing error variances but removing treatment effect. Some recommendations for improved design of similar future experiments are given in a concluding section, including preliminary trial use of blocking by storms.     

Market‐based Price‐risk Management for Coffee Producers

Coffee is characterised by high levels of price fluctuation, which exposes producers to price risk. Its wide trading in international commodity futures markets offers scope for producers to manage the risk by hedging on these markets, the mechanism for which is based on the use of put options. This article uses historical data of actual put‐options contracts to estimate the costs of the mechanism, the benefits being inferred from field evidence. It emerges that the costs are relatively low and outweighed by the benefits for most producers. The article then looks at the operational feasibility of the mechanism for producers and compares it with other hedging mechanisms.     

Weak Monotonicity Characterizes Deterministic Dominant‐Strategy Implementation

We characterize dominant‐strategy incentive compatibility with multidimensional types. A deterministic social choice function is dominant‐strategy incentive compatible if and only if it is weakly monotone (W‐Mon). The W‐Mon requirement is the following: If changing one agent's type (while keeping the types of other agents fixed) changes the outcome under the social choice function, then the resulting difference in utilities of the new and original outcomes evaluated at the new type of this agent must be no less than this difference in utilities evaluated at the original type of this agent.     

Elwood Buffa's Pioneering Contributions to Production and Operations Management

Elwood Spencer Buffa, a pioneer in production and operations management (P/OM), passed away in the summer of 2005, leaving his legacy behind. During his academic career Buffa made lasting contributions to teaching and research of P/OM. We review those contributions and their impact on the evolution of the P/OM discipline.     

An Integrated Logistic Model for Predictable Disasters

In the aftermath of a disaster, the relief items are transported from temporary warehouses (Staging Areas, SAs) to the Points of Distribution (PODs). Reducing the response time to provide relief items to disaster victims and cost minimization are two important objectives of this study. We propose an integrated optimization model for simultaneously determining (1) locations of staging areas, (2) inventory assignments to these SAs, (3) selecting sizes and numbers of trucks, and (4) routing of trucks from SAs to PODs. We also introduce another variable, a value function, which forces the model to reduce the logistics response time. We study the interactions among these variables through extensive sensitivity analysis. The time horizon for supply of relief items to disaster areas is usually limited to six days after the disaster occurs. Therefore, we use the proposed optimization model in a rolling‐horizon manner, one day at a time. This reduces daily demand uncertainty. We analyze three disaster scenarios: (1) a low impact disaster, (2) a medium impact disaster, and (3) a high impact disaster. We conduct 720 experiments with different parameter values, and provide answers to the following questions that are useful for the logistic managers: (i) What are the right sizes (in terms of storage capacities) of SAs closer to the PODs? (ii) How should the budget be allocated in a disaster scenario? (iii) What mix of different types (in terms of sizes) of trucks should be selected in a given scenario? The most important managerial insights include: (i) operational budget beyond a limit does not improve the operational efficiency, (ii) when the budget is very low, it is essential to select smaller SAs close to the PODs in order to carry out operations in a feasible manner, (iii) when the impact of disaster is high, it is always beneficial to select larger SAs close to the PODs (as long as the budget is not very low), (iv) when the budget is high and the impact of disaster is not very high, the emergency management administrators need to select SAs prudently based on the tradeoff between the operational cost and the humanitarian value, and (v) the cost of operations is higher when all the trucks are of the same type compared to the case when there is a mix of different types of trucks. Also, we find that the optimal selection of SAs is not impacted by different combinations of the types of trucks. The focus of this study is on disasters that can be forecasted in advance and provide some lead time for preparations, for example, hurricanes. In order to understand the disaster management process of such disasters and develop our model, we (i) interviewed several emergency management administrators, and (ii) studied the disaster management processes available in documents released by various government agencies.     

Dose‐Response Model of Coxiella burnetii (Q Fever)

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by the intracellular gram‐negative bacterium Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii), which only multiplies within the phagolysosomal vacuoles. Q fever may manifest as acute or chronic disease. The acute form is generally not fatal and manifestes as self‐controlled febrile illness. Chronic Q fever is usually characterized by endocarditis. Many animal models, including humans, have been studied for Q fever infection through various exposure routes. The studies considered different endpoints including death for animal models and clinical signs for human infection. In this article, animal experimental data available in the open literature were fit to suitable dose‐response models using maximum likelihood estimation. Research results for tests of severe combined immunodeficient mice inoculated intraperitoneally (i.p.) with C. burnetii were best estimated with the Beta‐Poisson dose‐response model. Similar inoculation (i.p.) trial outcomes conducted on C57BL/6J mice were best fit by an exponential model, whereas those tests run on C57BL/10ScN mice were optimally represented by a Beta‐Poisson dose‐response model.