伸展构造背景下倾角资料的构造解释

系统总结了在伸展构造背景下，导致反映构造特征的地层倾角模式复杂化的多种因素。沉积相的不同、岩性变化、井眼状况和测井作业时间等多种因素都可能使地层倾角资料复杂化。进一步指出在拉张盆地中，进行倾角资料的构造解释，必须了解其构造样式的多样性和复杂性，解释存在的多解性。重点解剖了铲式断层在横剖面情况下，对于不同构造位置下的倾角模式。详细分析了一个倾角模式对应多种构造样式的倾角构造解释实例。倾角资料的构造解释应是综合解释，既要综合井筒的相关地质资料，又要综合测井与地质知识，还必须考虑综合地震资料。     

用科学发展观指导新时期机关党建工作

党的十七大报告对科学发展观的时代背景、科学内涵和精神实质进行了深刻阐述,对贯彻落实科学发展观提出了明确要求.科学发展观不仅对我国经济增长、政治进步、文化繁荣、社会和谐有巨大的指导作用,而且对加强党的自身建设具有重大的现实意义.     

一次计数抽样检验的风险分析

利用抽样检验特征曲线 ,分析了一次计数抽样检验中N ,n ,Ac3个参数的改变对生产者风险和消费者风险的影响     

智慧导向型知识管理的一种分析框架

本文在剖析知识、智慧的概念及其内在关系的基础上,从知识和智慧有机结合角度提出了一种分层次的智慧导向型知识管理分析框架。该框架反映了知识与智慧之间相互补充、相互促进的内在统一性,并分别将知识管理和组织智慧看作手段和导向,给出了知识和智慧两个层面的集成管理策略,体现了一种全新的系统知识管理思想。其目的是使组织更加有效地实施知识管理战略,更好地发挥知识的效能,从而使组织适应环境的变化,达到与环境长期和谐共存。最后指出了本文观点对组织实施知识管理的影响和借鉴作用。     

城镇化视角下的土地流转影响因素研究——基于安徽5个市的农户调研数据

影响土地流转意愿的因素主要包括制度因素、经济因素、政策因素等.本文在城镇化背景下,基于农户角度,通过入户调查和logistic回归模型,研究家庭所在区域、城市购房打算等社会化因素,和土地收入、土地社会保障等土地功能因素对土地流转意愿产生的影响.研究结果表明,农户的社会化因素和土地功能因素对土地流转意愿均产生显著影响.     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

环境行政处罚能以儆效尤吗?——同伴影响视角下环境规制的威慑效应研究

环境规制是促进企业实施环境保护策略的主要推动力,本文应用犯罪经济学中的威慑理论,分析环境规制发挥治理作用的内在机理,实证研究目标企业环境行政处罚对同伴企业环保投资的影响,验证了环境规制发挥威慑效应的重要途径:同伴影响.以上市公司为样本,结合手工收集的2007年～2015年间企业环境行政处罚数据,实证结果显示:目标企业环境行政处罚增加了同伴企业的环保投资,即通过同伴影响路径,环境规制产生威慑效应.此外,企业规模、处罚性质以及媒体报道等因素影响环境规制的威慑效应,具体体现为被处罚企业规模大、处罚严厉以及媒体报道,对同伴企业的威慑效应更强;行业竞争作为一种外部机制,有助于强化环境规制的威慑效应.研究结论表明政府实施环境规制中提高处罚确定性、典型性、严厉性,以及舆论监督与行业竞争能够增强同伴影响,提高环境规制威慑力.     

疫情之下数字经济发展对经济的影响研究

2020年,我国第一季度GDP同比下降6.8%,消费、投资两大引擎均呈现显著的负增长,新冠肺炎疫情对国民经济和居民生活造成了巨大的冲击。文章通过对“非典”时期与新冠肺炎疫情时期我国经济发展状况的比较分析,研究数字经济发展对经济的影响。结果表明,现阶段我国产业结构和互联网发展程度相比“非典”时期有显著变化,在线医疗、在线教育、电商送货、在线办公等数字经济产业是我国应对疫情不利影响、实现产业转型升级并稳定就业的新引擎。加快推动数字经济和各行业的深度融合,是我国数字经济发展的重点方向。