A diagnostic statistic for functional-coefficient autoregressive models

In this paper, functional coefficient autoregressive (FAR) models proposed by Chen and Tsay (1993) are considered. We propose a diagnostic statistic for FAR models constructed by comparing between parametric and nonparametric estimators of the functional form of the FAR models. We show asymptotic properties of our statistic mathematically and it can be applied to the estimation of the delay parameter and the specification of the functional form of FAR models.     

康定市吉居藏语所属问题

本文针对分布在四川甘孜州康定市吉居乡的藏族语言进行分析。吉居话的语言所属在以往研究里没有共识,有属于扎巴语的意见和属于康巴藏语的意见。通过与藏文的对比,可见该语言为一个属于康巴藏语崩波岗方言群的土话,并非木雅语或扎巴语。基于与吉居话周边土话的比较,我们提出吉居话属于崩波岗方言群雅砻江组的假设性结论。本文的分析方法亦能作为识别康巴藏语中方言所属的参考。     

An Empirical Assessment of Households Livelihood Vulnerability: The Case of Rural Ghana

The recent years witnessed a sharp drop in China’s demographic dividend; therefore, some reform measures about China’s fertility policy have been adopted to optimize population structures and to maintain demographic dividend. However, our simulation results reveal that the new two-child fertility policy cannot effectively deal with population ageing, and that China’s fertility policy needs further adjustment. Specifically, we find that the new two-child fertility policy will deteriorate demographic dividend before 2050, through combination of simulation results and formula derivation. Aiming to stabilize demographic dividend at ideal range all the time, we build nonlinear integer programming model to propose an appropriate reforming path for China’s fertility policy. Then, we simulate and compare demographic developments under the proposed reforming path with those under three possible fertility policies: one-child, two-child and no fertility restriction, verifying that the proposed reforming path has better performance on stabilizing demographic dividend than these three fertility policies have. Finally, sensitivity analysis of upper bound of research interval is conducted to evaluate the effect of the upper bound on proposed reforming path. Based on these results, we suggest that China should continue to execute current strict fertility policy before 2032, then begin to relax it gradually especially during 2036–2041, and completely cancel fertility policy after 2065.     

Study on workloads of human care worker with the introduction of IT system - the characteristics of work loads by observational research and the suggestions for KAIZEN

The purpose of this study was to clarify the characteristic of workloads on human care worker with the introduction of IT system, and suggested the support measures for KAIZEN in Japan. The investigation method is workflow line and hearing with a focus on work observation. The objects were 8 human care workers of the acute hospital that introduced an electronic system. By the introduction of the electronic chart, the nurse station sojourn time decreased, sickroom sojourn time increased, and time about direct nursing care to a patient increased. In addition, access to patient information became easy, and the offer of the health care service based on correct information came to be possible in real time. By The point of workflow line, it was effect that moving lengths decreased in order to install the electronic chart in patients' rooms. Though, it was a problem that it hasn't formed where to place the instruments such as sphygmomanometer, clinical thermometer and others.     

藏语方言学研究与语言地图：如何看待“康方言”

本文介绍藏语方言学研究中的地理语言学的研究方法,并利用此方法对所谓的藏语“康方言”进行分析,探讨其具体语言现象,并提出在以往藏语研究中常见的“康方言”并不成立,应将其理解为“语言复合体”之见解.由于方言学研究涉及的领域除了语言本身之外,还需要考虑地理关系及历史关系,其研究不同于普通的方言研究.本文主要讨论有关“康方言”的三个问题,通过实际问题的讨论了解到,方言学研究中绘制语言地图是一种不可回避的过程,通过地图能了解到各个方言群的分布地域,并加上地理、历史等人文信息探讨方言的形成,才能得到可信的方言分类.     

Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?

The monetary policy targets the short rates; however, during zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the short end of the yield curve cannot serve as a policy instrument. Relying on the joint yields-macro latent factors model, this study empirically examines the effect of monetary policy stances on term structure and the possible feedback effect on the real sector using the Japanese experience of ZIRP. The analysis indicates that it is the entire term structure that transmits the policy shocks to the real economy rather than the yield spread only. The monetary policy signals pass through the yield curve level and slope factors to stimulate the economic activity. The curvature factor, besides reflecting the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, acts as a leading indicator for future inflation. In addition, policy influence tends to be low as the short end becomes segmented toward medium/long-term of the yield curve. Furthermore, volatility in bond markets is found to be asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks and long end tends to be less sensitive to stochastic shocks than the short maturities. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure does not hold during the ZIRP period.     

Japanese Children's Reasoning about Conflicts with Parents

Ninety-five Japanese children (aged 6–12) were interviewed using hypothetical stories to examine their reasoning about parent–child conflicts. Participants were most likely to reject parental authority and to support child's discretion in conflict situations where the parent interfered in the child's personal choice and gave the child commands that violated moral and conventional principles. However, participants were most likely to accept parental authority when the child's wish conflicted with the parent's moral concern. Participants' reasoning was more varied when the child's wish went against the parent's conventional demand. Consistent with their cultural values, participants considered harmonious relationships in evaluating conventional and personal conflicts, but not moral conflicts. Age differences were observed in the endorsement of personal choice. Results suggest that children do not simply act upon their cultural values but also show resistance to parental authority for reasons beyond meeting selfish needs and form differentiated judgments about parent–child conflicts.     

Ecological Risk – Benefit Analysis of a Wetland Development Based on Risk Assessment Using "Expected Loss of Biodiversity"

Ecological risk from the development of a wetland is assessed quantitatively by means of a new risk measure, expected loss of biodiversity (ELB). ELB is defined as the weighted sum of the increments in the probabilities of extinction of the species living in the wetland due to its loss. The weighting for a particular species is calculated according to the length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree that will be lost if the species becomes extinct. The length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree is regarded as reflecting the extent of contribution of the species to the taxonomic diversity of the world of living things. The increments in the probabilities of extinction are calculated by a simulation used for making the Red List for vascular plants in Japan. The resulting ELB for the loss of Nakaikemi wetland is 9,200 years. This result is combined with the economic costs for conservation of the wetland to produce a value for the indicator of the "cost per unit of biodiversity saved." Depending on the scenario, the value is 13,000 yen per year-ELB or 110,000 to 420,000 yen per year-ELB (1 US dollar = 110 yen in 1999).     

Comparing public attitudes toward providing for the livelihood of the elderly in two aging societies: Germany and Japan

Using an ordered logit model on representative survey data, we study attitudes about who should provide for the livelihood of the elderly in two aging societies—Germany and Japan. We find that in both countries, those with higher income are more inclined toward the private option, whereas age has the opposite effect. Part-time work status negatively (positively) affects the inclination toward a government-based pension system in Japan (Germany). Other significant influences are the pensioner status of the respondents in Japan and specific left-wing party support in the case of Germans.     

An application of a minimax Bayes rule and shrinkage estimators to the portofolio selection problem under the Bayesian approach

This paper shows that a minimax Bayes rule and shrinkage estimators can be effectively applied to portfolio selection under the Bayesian approach. Specifically, it is shown that the portfolio selection problem can result in a statistical decision problem in some situations. Following that, we present a method for solving a problem involved in portfolio selection under the Bayesian approach.