Closed competitive bidding

This paper replaces the competitive bidding models of Friedman and Gates with a more general probabalistic bidding model which resolves the conflict between them. The validity of the model is demonstrated by simulation. Practical difficulties of using the probabalistic approach are discussed and several lines of future research suggested.     

The problems of eligibility and endogenous confounders when assessing the mortality impact of a nationwide disease-prevention programme: the case of insecticide-treated nets in Togo

Evaluation of the mortality impact of nationwide disease-prevention efforts is complicated by potential endogeneity: programme recipients may have unobserved characteristics that simultaneously make them both more likely to become recipients and more likely to survive as a result of other health practices. This population-based study assesses the mortality impact of a nationwide programme that distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to mothers of children aged 9-59 months in Togo. By comparing mortality rates before and after the programme according to households' eligibility status, we demonstrate that a one-time programme that restricts eligibility to households with a surviving child excludes some households with a high risk of child mortality. We then apply simultaneous estimation models to untangle the mortality impact of ITNs from the effects of unobserved confounders and show that among eligible households, living in a household with ITNs significantly reduces mortality for children aged 20-59 months, even after controlling for endogeneity.     

An alternative sampling strategy for obtaining child health data in a reproductive health survey

Retrospective demographic surveys typically collect substantial information about child health. This information is often collected for all children born during a specified period. For women with several young children, the interview can become quite long. To shorten the interview, some surveys have asked child health questions only for the last child born. However, data on the last birth may be biased because last children have a younger age distribution and have longer subsequent birth intervals than does the average child. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to collecting child health data - that child health questions be asked only for a child chosen randomly from among the respondent's children younger than age five. This alternative has the advantage of keeping the interview shorter but does not lead to biased information.Abbreviations DHS Demographic and Health Surveys     

Young women's work and family formation in Sri Lanka

"Patterns of family formation in Sri Lanka resemble those of wealthier nations, with late marriage, delayed childbearing, and moderately low fertility. This article addresses two questions: How have these family formation patterns emerged in the absence of the normally expected levels of economic development? And what activities have occupied young women in the premarital, prechildbearing period? Answers are suggested by data from three sources: the 1981 census; a set of focus-group discussions on the rights, obligations, and aspirations of young women related to marriage, work, childbearing, and child care; and a sample survey of 1,535 women of ages 15-30 in Kalutara District. The article describes the interplay of socioeconomic and familial forces that have affected the status of young Sri Lankan women."     

Estimating intercensal age schedules by intracohort interpolation

"This paper describes a procedure for estimating intercensal age schedules of rates of occurrence of demographic events (birth, death, marriage) from tabulations at two points in time of a status of the population (average children ever born, persons surviving, proportion ever married) classified by age." The procedure is called iterative intracohort interpolation. The paper describes a more general version than that originally developed by Ansley J. Coale and provides a probabilistic interpretation of the age-specific rates estimated by the procedure.     

Intra-uterine Mortality and Maternal Nutritional Status in Rural Bangladesh

This paper is an investigation of the relationship of a maternal nutritional status with intra-uterine mortality in a population of chronically malnourished rural Bangladeshi women. First, life-table techniques are used to compare the level of intra-uterine mortality in this population with levels reported in other studies. Then the relationships of maternal nutritional status, age, parity, foetal loss and season of conception with intra-uterine mortality are examined in a multivariate analysis. The results indicate foetal mortality in rural Bangladesh to be markedly higher than in other populations where living conditions and health care are superior. Maternal nutritional status, maternal age and season of conception all appear to be related significantly to foetal mortality.     

Reproductive patterns and child mortality in guatemala

In this paper, we investigate the association of child mortality with maternal age, parity, birth spacing, and socioeconomic status, in a sample of Guatemalan children who were included in a public health intervention program. Our results indicate that maternal age, birth order, and the length of the previous and following birth intervals all have a significant impact on the risk of child mortality and that these associations cannot be accounted for by differences in breastfeeding, socioeconomic status, or the survival status of the previous child.