用科学发展观指导新时期机关党建工作

党的十七大报告对科学发展观的时代背景、科学内涵和精神实质进行了深刻阐述,对贯彻落实科学发展观提出了明确要求.科学发展观不仅对我国经济增长、政治进步、文化繁荣、社会和谐有巨大的指导作用,而且对加强党的自身建设具有重大的现实意义.     

智慧导向型知识管理的一种分析框架

本文在剖析知识、智慧的概念及其内在关系的基础上,从知识和智慧有机结合角度提出了一种分层次的智慧导向型知识管理分析框架。该框架反映了知识与智慧之间相互补充、相互促进的内在统一性,并分别将知识管理和组织智慧看作手段和导向,给出了知识和智慧两个层面的集成管理策略,体现了一种全新的系统知识管理思想。其目的是使组织更加有效地实施知识管理战略,更好地发挥知识的效能,从而使组织适应环境的变化,达到与环境长期和谐共存。最后指出了本文观点对组织实施知识管理的影响和借鉴作用。     

城镇化视角下的土地流转影响因素研究——基于安徽5个市的农户调研数据

影响土地流转意愿的因素主要包括制度因素、经济因素、政策因素等.本文在城镇化背景下,基于农户角度,通过入户调查和logistic回归模型,研究家庭所在区域、城市购房打算等社会化因素,和土地收入、土地社会保障等土地功能因素对土地流转意愿产生的影响.研究结果表明,农户的社会化因素和土地功能因素对土地流转意愿均产生显著影响.     

Statistical inference for a relaxation index of stochastic dominance under density ratio model

Stochastic dominance is usually used to rank random variables by comparing their distributions, so it is widely applied in economics and finance. In actual applications, complete stochastic dominance is too demanding to meet, so relaxation indexes of stochastic dominance have attracted more attention. The π index, the biggest gap between two distributions, can be a measure of the degree of deviation from complete dominance. The traditional estimation method is to use the empirical distribution functions to estimate it. Considering the populations under comparison are generally of the same nature, we can link the populations through density ratio model under certain condition. Based on this model, we propose a new estimator and establish its statistical inference theory. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator substantially improves estimation efficiency and power of the tests and coverage probabilities satisfactorily match the confidence levels of the tests, which show the superiority of the proposed estimator. Finally we apply our method to a real example of the Chinese household incomes.     

中国服务业FDI的效应研究:基于技术溢出与竞争排斥视角

本文对服务业FDI技术溢出与竞争排斥效应的内在机制进行了探讨,并通过构建计量经济模型进行实证检验。研究表明,服务业FDI的技术溢出效应确实存在,外资进入能够有效提升我国各地区技术进步,促进各地区全要素生产率提高,但技术外溢效应也呈现地区差异,表现为对东部地区的技术拉动明显高于中西部地区,这可能会加剧地区技术差距水平;而服务业外资的竞争排斥效应呈现非线性特征,即服务业引资相对规模必须在一个合理的区间内,否则服务业外资对服务业国际竞争力的影响将不再是正向效应。     

经济发展视域下的社会稳定关联因素分析

经济发展视域下的经济增长、就业、收入差距、社会保障、弱势群体等因素与社会稳定之间存在复杂和多面的关联.这种关联的复杂性和多面性既取决于这些因素本身,也取决于和这些因素及社会稳定相关的许多其他变量.基于关联视角的社会稳定对策要注重强化经济发展中相关方面与社会稳定的正相关,弱化相关方面与社会稳定的负相关,将正相关发挥到最大限度,把负相关减弱到最低程度.     

高校突发事件网络舆情传播的博弈分析--以香港占中事件为例

高校突发事件网络舆情的管理关系到高校教学乃至社会发展的稳定。以香港“占中”事件为例,运用演化博弈分析方法,建立学生群体面对突发事件策略选择的博弈模型,通过模型分析学生策略选择对网络舆情演变的影响。该模型可推广到一般的高校突发事件,对研究高校突发事件网络舆情具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

高等农业院校的科技特派员制度初探

随着农业经济的飞速发展,旧的计划经济条件下的管理体制已不相适应.建立农业科技特派员推广体系,调动农业高等院校、科研单位、企业、农民参与农业技术推广,实行推广队伍多元化,推广行为社会化,推广形式多样化.逐步形成国家扶持和市场引导相结合,有偿服务与无偿服务相结合的农业科技特派员推广体系.促进农业的各种行业协会和合作组织的发展,发挥其在科技推广中的作用.     

对互动广告中的性别身份建构的统计分析

系统功能语法认为语篇具有三大元功能,即概念功能、人际功能和语篇功能。我们从人际功能和概念功能出发,以男女两组英语互动式性别广告为语料进行讨论,得出以下结论：男性广告在“祈使语气”、“消费者充当的主语一限定成分”、“消费者充当的动作者一物质过程”的构形分布上均明显高于女性广告;而女性广告在“消费者充当的感觉者一心理过程”的构形分布上明显高于男性广告。这些构形分布的显著性差异说明,这类语篇建构的不同性别的身份是不同的,即建构不同的性别身份。