WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state‐by‐state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. (JEL H0)     

Rich Sensitivities: An Analysis of Conflict Among Women in Feminist Memoir*

Alors que le mouvement nord‐américain des femmes est surtout connu pour ses efforts en vue de transformer les relations sociales entre les femmes et les hommes, ses partisanes ont également mis l'accent sur la reformulation des relations entre les femmes. Utilisant une source de données novatrice, les mémoires du mouvement social, l'auteure souligne la profondeur de la déception que les féministes s'infligent les unes aux autres. Les mémorialistes débattent des notions provenant du mouvement et du courant principal voulant que les femmes soient compétentes socialement. Cet article présente le concept d'«idéation relationnelle» pour décrire la façon dont les mémorialistes féministes analysent d'une manière critique la compréhension de la socialité des femmes tenue pour acquise et aiguisent leurs désirs d'une nouvelle éthique sociale entre elles. While the North American women's movement is most known for its efforts to transform social relations between women and men, its adherents have also focused on remaking relations among women. Using an innovative data source, social movement memoir, this paper indicates the depth of disappointment feminists cause one another. Memoirists dispute notions found in the movement and mainstream that women are socially capable. The paper offers the concept “relational ideation” to describe the way feminist memoirists critically examine taken for granted understandings of women's sociality and amplify their desires for a new social ethic among them.     

An evaluation of product commonality and group technology production methods in a pre-defined multiple-machine scenario

Group technology has been used successfully for a number of years as a setup reduction tool. It is especially valuable in low-volume high-mix manufacturing environments where products and machines may be partitioned into product families and machine cells. The partitioning of machines or processes into cells may be limited by practical constraints, and the partitioning of products is complicated as the number of products and processes increases. In this paper, the authors examine the behaviour of various grouping strategies lauded as being appropriate in situations where machine partitioning and product routeing are determined by technological constraints. Of specific experimental concern in this paper is the effect of the mean and variance of component part commonality between products on system performance under various grouping strategies in a multiple-machine environment.     

Is Gender Inequality in Social Work Management Relevant to Social Work Students?

Correspondence to Ms C. Taylor, Research Fellow, Social Work Research Centre, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA. Summary This paper reports on a study carried out in 1991 based on questionnaireswhich asked 169 female and male social work students about theiraspirations and expectations in respect of promotion in theirfuture career. Underlying the study is a concern about the unequalrepresentation of male and female workers at management levelsin social services in the UK, there being at present a predominanceof male managers. The phenomenon is not regarded as unique tosocial services, but as part of the pattern of gender inequalityin the workforce as a whole. The view that women contribute to the phenomenon by a fundamentallack of interest in, or unwillingness to apply for, promotionwill be challenged. It will be argued that the differences inthe aspirations and expectations of male and female employees,which previous research studies have reported, may be an effectof the experience of the organization rather than a cause ofthe scarcity of female employees in promoted posts. The paper will focus on some of the findings, including students'aspirations and expectations, their opinions about the unequalrepresentation of men and women in social work management, theimplications of this for their own career and whether they considerthis issue is, or should be, a significant component of socialwork training.     

DO LABOR MARKETS PROVIDE ENOUGH SHORT-HOUR JOBS? AN ANALYSIS OF WORK HOURS AND WORK INCENTIVES

This paper examines the role that work incentives play in the determination of work hours. We use a conventional efficiency wage model to analyze how firms respond to worker preferences regarding wage-hours packages. In contrast to previous work, we study markets in which workers have heterogeneous preferences. In this context we demonstrate that job offers will specify both wages and work hours and many individuals will not be able to work their preferred number of hours. We show that the labor market equilibrium may be characterized by a less than optimal number of short-hour jobs.     

Migration,development and inequality: Eastern Punjabi transnationalism

Abstract Drawing on original, ethnographic research in India and the UK, in this article we discuss the impact of transnational activity on the Doaba region of East Punjab, India. We argue that some recent studies have underplayed some of the less progressive consequences of Indian transnationalism. In particular, we contend that they have underestimated the extent of division between transnational migrants and Indian non‐migrants and downplayed the relationship between transnationalism and caste inequality. This empirical study of transnationalism, when placed in the context of the dynamic caste relations of East Punjab, supports those who contend that access to international migration is becoming an increasingly significant component of contemporary global social stratification, with the ‘broad’ transnational processes of capitalist globalization driving the ‘narrow’ transnationalism studied here. In this article, we question any straightforwardly progressive relationship between transnationalism and ‘development’ within East Punjab, and suggest that the arguments presented have a resonance beyond northwest India.     

Procedures for Evaluating Trends in Public Opinion

This article expresses a variety of theories of public opinionchange in terms of a formal model for analyzing public opiniondata. Statistical criteria are proposed whereby models of varyingcomplexity can be accepted or rejected. The observation is madethat certain substantive theories of change are more parsimoniousthan others in terms of their statistical predictions. The modelfor analyzing change presented here is based on the premisethat the most parsimonious theories should be accepted or rejectedfirst.