Dynamically Consistent Preferences with Quadratic Beliefs

This article characterizes a family of preference relations over uncertain prospects that (a) are dynamically consistent in the Machina sense and, moreover, for which the updated preferences are also members of this family and (b) can simultaneously accommodate Ellsberg- and Allais-type paradoxes.Replacing the "mixture independence" axiom by "mixture symmetry" proposed by Chew, Epstein, and Segal (1991) for decision making under objective risk, and requiring that for some partition of the state space the agent perceives ambiguity and so prefers a randomization over outcomes across that partition (proper uncertainty aversion), preferences can be represented by a (proper) quadratic functional. This representation may be further refined to allow a separation between the quantification of beliefs and risk preferences that is closed under dynamically consistent updating.     

Dress colour at the court of Elizabeth I: an essay in historical anthropology

Cet article traite de la signification sémiotique et historique de la couleur des vêtements à la cour d'Elizabeth I. Nous émettons l'hypothèse que les couleurs opposées des deux groupes qui fréquentaient la cour servaient d'opérateurs, c'est-à-dire d'outil de définition de l'opposition entre les deux groupes et de mise en marche de changements historiques.
De façon plus générale, l'article présente une conception analytique rendant possible une interprétation anthropologique de l'histoire qui prend en compte et examine en même temps la structure et le changement. De manière plus générale encore, nous traitons du rôle de la culture comme agent historique et nous proposons une grille d'analyse pour aborder ce rôle.
This paper treats the semiotic and historical significance of dress colour at the court of Elizabeth I. It argues that the opposing dress colours of two groups at court served as an 'operator,' an instrument by which the opposition between the two groups was defined, and historical change set in train.
In more general terms the paper offers an analytic concept that permits the anthropological investigation of history in which both structure and change can be simultaneously entertained and examined. Still more generally the paper treats the role of culture as an historical agent, and proposes a way to take account of it.     

THE KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION FUNCTION FOR UNIVERSITY PATENTING

We estimate a knowledge production function for university patenting using an individual effects negative binomial model. We control for Research and Development expenditures, research field, and the presence of a Technology Transfer Office. We distinguish between three kinds of researchers: faculty, postdoctoral scholars (postdocs), and PhD students. For the latter two, we also distinguish by visa status. We find patent counts to relate positively and significantly to the number of PhD students and number of postdocs. Our results also suggest that not all graduate students and postdocs contribute equally to patenting but that contribution is mediated by citizenship and visa status. (JEL C25, O31, O32, O34, O38)     

Appalachian Women’s Use of Substance Abuse Treatment: Examining the Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations

The Gelberg–Andersen Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations was applied to understand vulnerable Appalachian women’s (N = 400) utilization of addiction treatment. A secondary data analysis included multiple multivariate analyses. The strongest correlates of treatment utilization included ever injecting drugs (OR = 2.77), limited availability of substance abuse treatment facilities (OR = 2.03), and invalidated violence abuse claims (OR = 2.12). This study contributes theory-driven research to the greater social work addiction literature by confirming that vulnerable domains related to substance abuse treatment utilization warrant unique considerations compared to nonvulnerable domains. Findings also highlight the importance of understanding the unique role that cultural factors play in treatment utilization among Appalachian women. Inferences relevant to clinicians and policymakers are discussed.     

WHAT MAKES A GOOD ECONOMY? EVIDENCE FROM PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS

Analysis of 35 years of previously unstudied survey data shows how the American public evaluates the health of the macroeconomy. Survey responses are multidimensional, distinct from indexes of “consumer sentiment,” and based mostly on genuine perceptions of economic conditions, not media reports of economic statistics. As such, they contain unique information about current and future values of these statistics, particularly consumption growth, a longstanding focus of the literature. Both “intangibles” and macroeconomic fundamentals explain substantial variation in the survey data; the public equates 2 to 5 percentage points of inflation with 1 percentage point of unemployment. (JEL E32, E27, E01)     

MULTIPRODUCT PRICING IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL: A PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

The empirical analysis of multiproduct pricing lacks clear theoretical guidance and appropriate data, which often render traditional regression‐based analyses impractical. Under these circumstances the factors underlying price variation can be inferred using a new methodology based on principal components. Analyzing ticket, parking, and concession pricing in Major League Baseball with this methodology demonstrates that general demand shifts are the primary factor, but explain only half of overall price variation. Also important are price interactions deriving from demand interrelationships between goods and attempts to maximize the capture of consumer surplus in the presence of heterogeneous demand. (JEL D40, L11, L13)     

DEAD ON ARRIVAL: ZERO TOLERANCE LAWS DON'T WORK

By 1998, all states had passed laws lowering the legal blood alcohol content for drivers under 21 to effectively zero. Theory shows these laws have ambiguous effects on overall fatalities and economic efficiency, and the data show they have little effect on driver behavior. A panel analysis of the 1988–2000 Fatality Analysis Reporting System indicates that zero tolerance laws have no material influence on the level of fatalities, while quantile regression reveals virtually no change in the distribution of blood alcohol content among drivers involved in fatal accidents. (JEL: I18, K32, D11)