CENTRAL BANKING AS A POLITICAL PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM

Due to their ties with elected leaders, central bankers may pursue policies that are not in society's best interests. Consequently, the relationship between the public and the central bank can be characterized as a principal-agent problem. An inflation and stabilization bias arise as a result of this agency problem and the magnitudes of these biases depend on the political environment. Various institutional proposals for eliminating these biases are examined, and we find that central bank independence and performance contracts work best. However, we argue that central bank independence is preferable for resolving the agency problem.     

Approximation of the Distribution of the Location Parameter in the Growth Curve Model

Abstract.  In this paper an Edgeworth-type approximation of order O(n ⁻² ) to the density of the estimator of the location parameter in the growth curve model has been derived. The approximation is a mixture of a normal and a Kotz-type distribution, thus being an elliptical distribution. A condition for unimodality of the mixture was found and marginal distribution of a subvector of the mixture distribution was derived. Finally, a small example was given to demonstrate an application of the approximation.     

‘The distance between us’: a comparative examination of the technical,spatial and temporal dimensions of the transnational social relationships of highly skilled migrants

In this article, through comparing two highly skilled migrant groups in London, we explore how new types of information and communication technologies (ICTs) shape the form and content of transnational practices through time and space. In so doing, we aim to contribute to several debates in the field of migration studies. First, our findings highlight enduring practical constraints emanating from everyday routines and responsibilities, thus questioning the extent to which ICTs may be shrinking the globe and freeing people, even highly skilled ones, from spatial and temporal fixity. Second, we challenge assumptions about the ease of transnationalism by exploring the range and complexity of long‐distance interpersonal relationships and their dynamics over time. Third, by focusing on a comparison of relatively affluent, highly skilled migrants, we question the usefulness of the category of ‘middling migrants’. Our findings illustrate that, within this general and wide ranging category, there are diverse experiences, expectations and opportunities of maintaining contact with friends and family at home.     

Flat and Multimodal Likelihoods and Model Lack of Fit in Curved Exponential Families

Abstract. It is well known that curved exponential families can have multimodal likelihoods. We investigate the relationship between flat or multimodal likelihoods and model lack of fit, the latter measured by the score (Rao) test statistic W _U of the curved model as embedded in the corresponding full model. When data yield a locally flat or convex likelihood (root of multiplicity >1, terrace point, saddle point, local minimum), we provide a formula for W _U in such points, or a lower bound for it. The formula is related to the statistical curvature of the model, and it depends on the amount of Fisher information. We use three models as examples, including the Behrens–Fisher model, to see how a flat likelihood, etc. by itself can indicate a bad fit of the model. The results are related (dual) to classical results by Efron from 1978.