Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

School governing bodies: Reshaping education in their own image?

Recent educational reforms in England have given considerable responsibilities for the overall administration of schools to governing bodies largely comprised of lay people. The paper explores the knowledge of education possessed by lay governors. Issues considered include: the systematicity of that knowledge; its possible sources, and how gender, ethnicity and social class influence the knowledge held and used by governors. Also examined are the question of whether governors are always knowledgeable actors within the context of education and the implications of this for schools and democratic participation in their governance. Data is derived from a four year qualitative multi-site case study of ten school governing bodies in two English local education authorities undertaken by the authors between 1988 and 1992.     

Adolescent Violence towards Parents: Maintaining Family Connections When The Going Gets Tough

This paper explores some of the dilemmas, difficulties and decisions faced by mothers whose adolescent sons or daughters act in violent and abusive ways and refuse any counselling. A group intervention program, designed to assist these mothers in more fully understanding and addressing their adolescent's behaviour, was evaluated using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Self‐report questionnaire data indicated that following the group intervention the mothers reported less violence in their homes, and significantly less personal anxiety and fatigue. However, these women continued to experience high levels of depression, and the reasons for this are discussed. These findings are integrated with information from post‐intervention, in‐depth interviews which indicated that participants valued the group experience because they realised that they were not alone, their problems were understood, and they developed a wider range of strategies to deal with their children's violent behaviour.     

Desired Outcomes for Children and Adolescents with Autistic Spectrum Disorders

Within children's services, frameworks for assessing outcomes have been developed in the absence of consultation with children with autistic spectrum disorders and their parents. The research reported here worked with parents, other key adults and children with autistic spectrum disorders to identify desired outcomes. It found similarities with non‐autistic children in terms of the broad types of outcomes desired. However, the presence of autism meant either new or different sorts of outcomes were reported. Implications in terms of the ways outcomes for autistic children are defined and measured, and the role of services in achieving outcomes is discussed. © 2006 The Author(s).     

TEACHING TOOLS: ON JOURNALISTS' USE OF MACROECONOMIC CONCEPTS

Five macroeconomic concepts are presented which are prominent in the business sections of newspapers, but which are not given equivalent prominence in macroeconomic textbooks. These are the discouraged worker phenomenon, the use of inventories in forecasting, the effect of changes in the money supply on the bond market, and the effects of inflation and nominal interest rates in the foreign exchange market. These concepts are presented via news clips illustrating the way they typically appear in the press. Instructors are urged to place extra emphasis on these concepts.     

Getting the most for your consulting dollars

Major changes in the health care financing and delivery system have usually been accompanied by an increase in demand within the health care field for consulting services. The passage of Medicare/Medicaid in 1965 is one example. The passage of the DRG-based prospective pricing system in 1983 is another. Both spawned a substantial amount of work, and income, for consulting firms. Now the health care field is engaged in nearly total transformation as the forces of health care reform at the national level are met with myriad adjustments at the local and regional levels. Managed care, already a byword, is being strengthened by a multitude of so-called integrated system initiatives. It is not easy to survive, and the call is out to consultants to save the day, or at least stave off disaster. In the following four articles, Marilyn Kennedy, a member of the ACPE faculty and a consultant herself, gives some advice on how to make the consulting arrangement successful; three physician executives provide a glimpse at consults that have worked, and some that did not work.     

Personal trainer, personal coach

The increasing number of fresh faces in the management ranks, many of them with highly polished credentials but little in the way of practical experience in the work-a-day management world, has increased the need for a new consulting professional--the personal coach. There simply aren't enough volunteer mentors to accommodate the growing medical management profession. Whatever the conditions under which this new professional's services are sought, both the individual to be coached and the organization for which the individual works should approach the arrangement with care and planning. The author offers some guidance for making the arrangement pay off.