宋代北江蛮彭氏及其族属考辨

宋代北江蛮是南方古代少数民族的重要一支.北江蛮彭氏为"蛮酋"大族历来是学界所热议的主题.北江蛮的族属源流问题虽在争论中出现"彭氏江西说""彭氏土著说"等诸多说法,但北江蛮彭氏应是"土著"与汉人等融合的结果.北江蛮彭氏在地理分布上为忠顺、龙赐、溶州、高州等十八处羁縻州,而非正史所载二十余处.同时,北江蛮彭氏世系记载存在诸多错误,例如自允殊至仕羲乃四世而非五世等谬讹.     

清代中缅划界的法律之误

中英1894年签订《续议滇缅界、商务条款》,条约前5条是关于定界的规定,划定了除中缅北段未定界以外的边界。由于对有效占有的理解、条约文本、以及地图的失误,中国反而丧失了实际管辖的小江流域,也遗留下南段未定界。中缅近代遗留的南、北两段边界争端,除近代欧洲列强侵略原因外,也源于中国对领土划界、国际法领土取得和变更理论的理解不够深入和准确。因此,及时理解国际法有关领土理论的产生与变更、在积极运用国际法解决边界争端之时更谨慎地注意技术上的细节,才是真正解决国家边界争端的恰当方式。     

高含水期油藏层间压力结构差异量化方法研究

由于长期注水开发和层间非均质性影响，高含水期油藏各小层层间压力结构差异严重，掌握差异状况是合理调整的重要依据。针对现场分层测压资料少，单层压力资料获取困难的情况，应用渗流力学原理建立了高含水期地层层间压力结构差异量化数学模型，模型的关键参数可以通过生产数据计算获得。枣园油田的实例验证表明，高含水油藏层间压力存在明显差异，该方法能够确定各小层的压力差异状况。量化计算结果和实测资料相接近，有利于认清开发矛盾，为合理调整提供技术依据。     

互联网深化、信息不确定性与企业出口平稳性

互联网作为信息搜寻和传播的重要渠道,有利于缓解国际市场不确定性对企业出口决策的影响,从而有助于稳定企业出口预期,保障出口企业的持续生存。本文首先基于Fernandes 和 Tang(2014)的研究框架将互联网深化程度和出口集聚同时纳入到异质性贸易企业模型,在剥离出口集聚对企业出口行为影响的基础上,从理论视角揭示了互联网深化程度提高影响企业出口行为特别是出口持续生存的内在机理与方向。研究发现,不同于出口集聚会同时影响企业的需求冲击和成本冲击,互联网深化带来的信息溢出效应会通过贝叶斯法则(Bayesian Rule)使得企业修正其对国际市场不确定性的预期,提高其对目的国市场成本冲击的估计精度,从而在互联网深化程度较高的城市,企业进入出口市场的临界生产率较低,有利于其出口参与度和出口稳定性的提高。然而互联网深化程度提高不影响企业在目的国市场产品出口的集约边际。本文使用2000-2013 年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和中国城市统计年鉴数据库的匹配数据从企业-目的国-产品层面实证检验了本文的理论命题。研究表明,我国政府应充分发挥互联网发展降低信息不确定性的微观机制,以推动外贸的平稳增长。     

Modifications of sequential designs in bioequivalence trials

Bioequivalence (BE) studies are designed to show that two formulations of one drug are equivalent and they play an important role in drug development. When in a design stage, it is possible that there is a high degree of uncertainty on variability of the formulations and the actual performance of the test versus reference formulation. Therefore, an interim look may be desirable to stop the study if there is no chance of claiming BE at the end (futility), or claim BE if evidence is sufficient (efficacy), or adjust the sample size. Sequential design approaches specially for BE studies have been proposed previously in publications. We applied modification to the existing methods focusing on simplified multiplicity adjustment and futility stopping. We name our method modified sequential design for BE studies (MSDBE). Simulation results demonstrate comparable performance between MSDBE and the original published methods while MSDBE offers more transparency and better applicability. The R package MSDBE is available at https://sites.google.com/site/modsdbe/ . Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

两汉孙吴会稽郡诸部都尉考

The commander was mainlu in charge of the army in the local administration system during the Han Dynasty to the Sunwu Period. As the border prefectures were important in military defense, the armies of these prefectures were commonly divided into parts. Therefore, the army of Kuaiji Prefecture were divided into West Section Duwei, East Section Duwei and South Section Duwei. The West and East Section Duweis were founded for the purpose of suppressing the adherents of Yuyue as well as the Minyue and Ouyue people in the southeast coastline. In demand of securing the safety of the ship routes alongside the southeast coastline, the East Section Duwei migrated frequently within the area. In the meantime, the foundation of South Section Duwei was the result of the Sunwu government suppressing the local force and pillaging the labor resources in a partition background     

Premium of Endowment Insurance for Civil Servants will be Paid by Employers and Individuals

There is finally precise information about the reform in endowment insurance to abolish the"double-track system".On December 23,2014,Mr.Ma Kai,Vice Premier of the State Council,delivered a work report on behalf of the State Council at the 12th Session of the Standing Committee of the Twelfth National People’s Congress about the progress made in comprehensively advancing the establishment of urban     

美国、中国与朝鲜停战谈判中的战俘遣返问题

在1951年6月至1953年7月的朝鲜停战谈判中，战俘遣返问题是谈判双方争论最为激烈、耗时最长的议题。美国出于冷战需要，拒不同意遣返所有被俘朝中人员；而朝中方面则依据关于战俘遣返问题的日内瓦公约，要求遣返所有战俘。由于在此问题上僵持不下，致使谈判几次陷于停顿。最终，谈判双方各自做出一定让步，使得战俘遣返问题得以解决，为朝鲜停战协定的签订消除了最后也是最大的一个障碍。     

货币增速剪刀差与股票价格波动的相关性实证研究--基于结构突变视角

为深入认知我国货币政策与股票市场间的传导机制,在阐述结构突变理论,揭示数据生成过程运行轨迹的基础上,选用2004年1月至2012年8月的月度数据,以货币增速剪刀差和上证综合指数为考察指标,利用滤波图分析、外生性与BLS内生性结构突变单位根检验及Granger因果关系检验方法,实证检验两者关系。表明货币增速剪刀差序列服从平稳过程,上证指数序列为含有在2006年9月和2007年7月发生结构突变的平稳过程。上证指数与货币增速剪刀差之间存在单向因果关系。