Goodness‐of‐fit methods for matched case‐control studies

The authors propose graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the logistic regression model for matched case‐control data. Their approach is based on the cumulative sum of residuals over the covariate or linear predictor. Under the assumed model, the cumulative residual process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian limit whose distribution can be approximated via computer simulation. The observed cumulative residual pattern can then be compared both visually and analytically to a certain number of simulated realizations of the approximate limiting process under the null hypothesis. The proposed techniques allow one to check the functional form of each covariate, the logistic link function as well as the overall model adequacy. The authors assess the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate them using data from a cardiovascular study.     

Dynamics ofSitotroga cerealella (olivier) (lepidoptera: gelechiidae) andSitophilus zeamais motschulsky (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) populations in a small bulk of stored corn

Summary The dynamics of Angoumois grain moth,Sitotroga cerealella (Olivier), and maize weevil,Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky, populations breeding in a small bulk (initially 5.36 t) of shelled corn were studied over an 8-year period by monthly sampling. The weevil population showed wide fluctuations in density superimposed on a general decline with time. The moth population showed no upward or downward trend for the first 60 months, although it fluctuated widely. Following a decline that occurred between 56 and 60 months, the moth population fluctuated within a much narrower range, and there was a general decrease in density with time. The decline of the weevil population paralleled deterioration of the corn as did that of the moth population after ca 60 months, and the decline of both species probably resulted from increasing scarcity of suitable breeding sites. Both populations exhibited seasonal variation in density with minima in late summer and early fall, following periods of adversely high temperatures in the storage shed. The populations increased during the fall, leveled off or declined slightly during the winter months, and then increased to maximum levels in late spring or early summer. It thus appears that high temperatures had a greater adverse effect on the populations than low temperatures. The grain moth and the maize weevil both tended to be randomly dispersed at low population levels and moderately aggregated at intermediate and high levels, although the degree of aggregation was not correlated with population density when low population levels were considered separately, and the maize weevil showed a greater tendency for aggregation than did the grain moth. Analysis of individual samples at fixed points in time showed a conspicuous bias for negative correlation between numbers of the two species within sampling quadrats, suggesting a tendency for the two species to segregate within the grain mass. This process could have resulted from behavioral differences or from the destruction of one species by the other. Competitive displacement of the grain moth by the maize weevil has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments but has rarely been observed under natural conditions, and in our study the two species coexisted for 8 years in a relatively small grain bulk.     

非礼勿视

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