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1.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
2.
丁卓 《东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版)》2015,(2):139-143
奥威尔在20世纪30年代创作了4部小说,其中《牧师的女儿》长期受到评论界的忽视.在这部小说中,奥威尔面对社会庸俗伪善的现实,准确把握了主人公多萝西的内心挣扎与变异.主人公为逃脱人格逻辑悖论,离开家乡进行身份越界的探索,希望以构建新身份的方式得到身心的解放,但流浪漂泊和从业生涯相继失败,最终在回归后以重拾宗教信仰来拯救自我,而这种拯救又是在不断关爱他人中构建自身,所以多萝西的身份构建永远“在路上”.这种构建身份的新方式也体现在奥威尔后期小说代表作中,成为个人面对极权统治的生存选项之一,因此《牧师的女儿》对我们进行奥威尔小说研究具有特定的价值. 相似文献
3.
de Jong Petra W. Caarls Kim de Valk Helga A. G. 《Population research and policy review》2022,41(2):671-694
Population Research and Policy Review - The welfare state can be perceived as a safety net which helps individuals adjust to situations of risk or transition. Starting from this idea of the welfare... 相似文献
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Sant’Anna Annibal Parracho de Freitas Siqueira Sadok Menna Barreto Márcia 《Social indicators research》2020,148(3):733-746
Social Indicators Research - This paper analyses the Human Development Index (HDI) time series from 2010 to 2017. An alternative index is studied, which combines the same components of the HDI by... 相似文献
6.
明朝成化年间的青花瓷由于瓷器造型、胎釉、青料、纹饰及绘画工艺技术诸多方面的变化,其艺术风格独具魅力。明朝成化青花缠枝纹色调鲜丽清新,构图疏朗工整,线条显现阴柔之美,体现了明成化一朝细致柔美的女性审美情趣。 相似文献
7.
Nairobi ME Network African Evaluation Association Secretariat Rseau Nigrian de Suivi et Evaluation Cape Verde Evaluation Network Rseau Malagache de Suivi et Evaluation Comoros Evaluation Network Eritrean Evaluation Network Malawi ME Network Rseau National de Chercheurs et Evaluateurs de Burundi Rwanda Evaluation Network UNICEF Eastern Southern Africa Region ME Network 《Evaluation and program planning》2002,25(4)
A review of the US ‘program evaluation standards’ (PES), undertaken in a series of workshops and meetings of networks of evaluators in Africa, resulted in modifications to those standards. The result was presented to a plenary session of the Inaugural Conference of the African Evaluation Association in September 1999, attended by over 300 evaluators from 35 countries. The AfrEA Conference decided that a systematic effort should be made to produce a list of African evaluation guidelines, similar to the PES, and that this checklist should be reviewed by national evaluation associations and networks in Africa and field tested in several countries. Ten national and regional networks and associations suggested modifications to the text and endorsed the final version of the guidelines. 相似文献
8.
Fire and restoration of the largest urban forest of the world in Rio de Janeiro City,Brazil 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
National Park of Tijuca in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is about 3,300 ha and considered the largest urban forest in the world. Its floristic composition is typical of Atlantic Rain Forest. The reserve is being altered because of fire occurrences and urban expansion. This study identified locations and causes of forest fires, and makes management recommendations to restore damaged areas. From 1991 to 2000, forest firefighters recorded an average of 75-fire occurrences/year. Identified causes included hot air balloons (24%), intentional (24%), rubbish burning (21%) and religious practices (17%). Primary fuels included invasive grasses and ferns. Although hot air balloons destroyed larger areas of forest in each occurrence, a greater number of fires started in the invasive vegetation along roads that bisect the forest. In response to recurrent forests, invasive vegetation has spread gradually into the forest increasing forest degradation. To decrease fire damage, sites with high fire frequencies and density of invasive vegetation were planted with less flammable species. Results indicate that fire frequency decreased and density of invasive vegetation declined. This approach appears to prevent fire incidence, reduce the need for fire fighting, and preserve existing biodiversity. 相似文献
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10.
韩国大企业集团的海外扩张战略 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
丁溪 《哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,4(4):64-66
自 70年代以来 ,韩国政府通过采取出口导向战略扶持大企业进军海外市场 ,带动了韩国经济的发展。韩国在短短的几十年里由一个农业国变成了一个新兴的工业化国家 ,经济总量居亚洲第三。在韩国经济快速发展中 ,大企业的强力出口、大举投资的海外扩张战略功不可没 相似文献