对基础研究投入问题的思考

文章首先从公共财政的角度对基础研究的投入进行分析,其次从布什和斯托克斯的科研模式角度对基础研究的投入进行分析。在此基础上对加大我国基础研究的投入提出了相关建议。     

我国金融支持农业发展的思考

金融促进农业发展，中国社会主义新农村建设离不开金融。由于城乡二元经济结构形成的城乡发展差距、农村信贷制度、统一标准的金融监管、支农资金风险高等原因，国家金融支持农业发展的力度不够，资金供给方向边缘化，农村金融主体自身服务与创新能力不足，民间信贷活跃但弊端多，农村金融服务和管理人才缺乏。提出要加强金融服务创新，优化农村金融服务，通过加强财政政策调控进一步促进农村发展；要根据农业贷款的特点，建立农业风险补偿机制，以降低和减少支农资金的风险和损失和促进信贷；同时完善《担保法》法规，加强农村金融管理和服务人才队伍建设，使金融更好地支持农业发展。     

浅谈燃气企业的局域网管理

从燃气企业的角度,介绍了企业局域网规划的重要性和网络安全,详述了使用AD活动目录进行集中管理、内网中安装WSUS服务器等两种网络系统的管理和维护方法。     

棘腹蛙繁殖生态的初步研究

本文报道了湘西棘腹蛙繁殖生态的初步研究结果。棘腹蛙多数在3月中、下旬出蛰，5月至8月为每繁殖期，6月至7月为繁殖盛期。同时，对棘腹蛙天然产卵场及其环境条件、第二性征与性成熟年龄，怀卵量与成熟系数、生殖行为和卵群形态等方面进行了研究。所获得的资料，为人工养殖棘腹腹蛙提供了理论依据。     

人学探要

人学是关于人的存在、本质及其产生、运动、发展、变化规律的新兴科学。人学首先以人自身为研究对象,并将人纳入自然界和宇宙之中予以通观。人是肉体和精神的物质辩证统一体,精神的实质也是物质。人与自然界物质存在形态在根本上是一致的,人与宇宙在本质上是同一的。人生的意义和价值存在于为他人、为社会、为人类做出的贡献之中。正确的宇宙观、人生观、价值观、时空观和发展观的确立,将会使人走上真正彻底自由和解放的道路。     

“透明的荒诞”与“纯洁的逻辑”——论《卡利古拉》中的暴虐启蒙

加缪戏剧主人公古罗马暴君卡利古拉对于"不可能之域"的追求,是以对价值领域里的"不可能性"的突破来代替对事实领域的"不可能性"的征服,两者的错位进一步凸显了存在的荒诞性。卡利古拉的所有暴行皆意在某种表达,这种表达采取了一贯的纯粹而执著的逻辑形式,以"求真去蔽"为目的,这一切构成某种关于存在之荒诞真相的"暴虐启蒙"。     

基于消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链生鲜度激励机制研究

生鲜供应链整体生鲜度的提升对减少浪费、提高供应链整体盈利水平及社会福利有重要意义。本文基于消费者效用理论研究了两供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链系统，构建了单周期下生鲜农产品生鲜度激励模型，模型以供应商为领导者，采用Stackelberg博弈方法求解得到了均衡状态下供应商、零售商的最优定价策略及供应商新鲜度努力选择。研究结果表明，供应商和零售商利润与消费者价格敏感系数呈反向变化，与新鲜度敏感系数呈同向变化。在价格竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与价格替代率呈反向变化；在生鲜度竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与新鲜度替代率呈同向变化。基于研究结论，厂商及政府应当联手引导消费者的消费观念，尽可能减少由于信息不对称引致的道德风险，在市场价格替代率不变甚至降低的情形下，提高生鲜度替代率，使得消费者的意愿支付价格上升，提高自身讨价还价能力，获取更多利润。     

Statistical considerations in clinical trial design with event-free survival as the primary efficacy endpoint

In late-phase confirmatory clinical trials in the oncology field, time-to-event (TTE) endpoints are commonly used as primary endpoints for establishing the efficacy of investigational therapies. Among these TTE endpoints, overall survival (OS) is always considered as the gold standard. However, OS data can take years to mature, and its use for measurement of efficacy can be confounded by the use of post-treatment rescue therapies or supportive care. Therefore, to accelerate the development process and better characterize the treatment effect of new investigational therapies, other TTE endpoints such as progression-free survival and event-free survival (EFS) are applied as primary efficacy endpoints in some confirmatory trials, either as a surrogate for OS or as a direct measure of clinical benefits. For evaluating novel treatments for acute myeloid leukemia, EFS has been gradually recognized as a direct measure of clinical benefits. However, the application of an EFS endpoint is still controversial mainly due to the debate surrounding definition of treatment failure (TF) events. In this article, we investigate the EFS endpoint with the most conservative definition for the timing of TF, which is Day 1 since randomization. Specifically, the corresponding non-proportional hazard pattern of the EFS endpoint is investigated with both analytical and numerical approaches.     

Changes in risky gambling prevalence among a New Zealand population cohort

Evidence suggests that problem gambling is an unstable state where gamblers move into and out of risk over time. This article looks at longitudinal changes in risky gambling and the factors associated with an increased risk (measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) in the current New Zealand context, which has experienced a doubling of the electronic gaming machine (EGM) market over the last two decades. Respondents from a nationally representative baseline sample (n = 2672) were recontacted two years later to assess changes in gambling behaviours. Among the 901 respondents reached at follow-up, average gambling risk increased over time, and the prevalence of those who had at least some level of gambling risk (i.e. low-risk or greater) more than doubled (from 4.7% to 12.4%). The majority (80.2%) of those who were at risk at follow-up had not been at risk at baseline. Multivariate linear regression analyses show that the predictors of low to moderate increased risk include Pacific ethnicity; high neighbourhood deprivation status; baseline frequent, continuous gambler type; baseline PGSI status; and playing EGMs. These findings highlight the need to develop theories of gambling addiction trajectories and to identify the earliest point along the trajectory where public health interventions should occur.     

Power analysis for clustered non-continuous responses in multicenter trials

Power analysis for multi-center randomized control trials is quite difficult to perform for non-continuous responses when site differences are modeled by random effects using the generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM). First, it is not possible to construct power functions analytically, because of the extreme complexity of the sampling distribution of parameter estimates. Second, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, a popular option for estimating power for complex models, does not work within the current context because of a lack of methods and software packages that would provide reliable estimates for fitting such GLMMs. For example, even statistical packages from software giants like SAS do not provide reliable estimates at the time of writing. Another major limitation of MC simulation is the lengthy running time, especially for complex models such as GLMM, especially when estimating power for multiple scenarios of interest. We present a new approach to address such limitations. The proposed approach defines a marginal model to approximate the GLMM and estimates power without relying on MC simulation. The approach is illustrated with both real and simulated data, with the simulation study demonstrating good performance of the method.