《麦克白》咒语现象解析

咒语现象是《麦克白》整出戏剧极富魅力的表现元素。它既为剧本奠定了一种神秘而阴森的基调,同时确定全局总纲,为剧情发展起到重要的推动作用。咒语与主人公的性格、行为以及内心活动、命运走向息息相关,并最终导致麦克白命运悲剧的发生。集众恶于一身的女巫是咒语现象的主体,艰深晦涩、言辞激烈的诗体是咒语的具体表现形式,咒语的预言性质笼罩全篇,影响着人物的内心恶念,推动剧情发展,成为贯穿全剧始终的主题线索。     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

从百家争鸣到儒术独尊的思想变奏

本文通过对从百家争鸣到儒术独尊这一中国文化"黄金时期"的分析,指出思想解放,博采众家之长,进行创造性思维,正是汉代哲学、思想发展的主流,是其特色.儒家成为正统以后,在汉以后千年未遭倾覆,说明中国文化本身具有巨大的张力.     

后现代之法院形态:考察与反思

后现代法学所描绘的后现代法院之图景，有以下几个方面的特征 ：一、法官的法律推理活动从形式主义导向朝着目的性或政策导向全方位推进；二、后现代 法院赖以为裁判准据的法律规范的普遍性、实在性被消解；三、法院的专业性式微；四、调 解等诉讼外解纷方式兴盛。后现代法院无论是在观念上还是在实践上都不可能成为一种主流 发展趋势。     

裴迪考论

裴迪是和王维同时而稍后的田园诗人 ,他的一生中大概有 2 0年是跟随着王维度过的。裴迪在唐代并不是显赫的诗人。但是他与当时除了李白以外的其他大诗人都有或多或少的联系。考证他的事迹和与这些诗人的关系 ,也可以使这些诗人得到更多的还原以被人们了解。     

家庭暴力的原因及预防对策探微

目前,家庭暴力已成为越来越不容忽视的社会问题和影响社会稳定的不安定因素。其产生的原因既受到封建专制主义的文化传统和宗法等级制度的影响,也与当前社会竞争加剧给人们造成的巨大心理压力以及其他因素有关。其预防对策是要逐渐消除家庭暴力正常化的观念,鼓励被害人增强抗争意识,更要借助于公安机关的预防和打击。     

杜甫《观公孙大娘弟子舞剑器行》诗序辩证

杜甫<观公孙大娘弟子舞剑器行>诗序中所涉及的音乐机构和乐人身份学界向来有不同认识,经过对唐代乐府制度的详细梳理,本文以为诗序中的"高头宜春、梨园二伎坊内人"分别指的是宜春院的女伎和梨园弟子,"外供奉舞女"指的是教坊(即外教坊)女伎.公孙大娘在开元初就已供奉宫廷,其身份为宫廷乐伎,推测是梨园弟子.杜甫之所以在郾城能够看到公孙大娘的表演,是因为在开元初年内廷歌舞曾经到宫外演出.     

Bayesian networks for imputation

Summary.  Bayesian networks are particularly useful for dealing with high dimensional statistical problems. They allow a reduction in the complexity of the phenomenon under study by representing joint relationships between a set of variables through conditional relationships between subsets of these variables. Following Thibaudeau and Winkler we use Bayesian networks for imputing missing values. This method is introduced to deal with the problem of the consistency of imputed values: preservation of statistical relationships between variables ( statistical consistency ) and preservation of logical constraints in data ( logical consistency ). We perform some experiments on a subset of anonymous individual records from the 1991 UK population census.     

文学翻译的艺术性

翻译的语言学理论将翻译提到科学的高度加以描述,可以说比传统理论前进了一步。但是如果因此而否认了翻译的艺术性,就无法阐明翻译中的许多问题。翻译的艺术性至少包括三个方面的内容,即形式表现、异质同构和艺术冲动。