川东北地区须家河组二段储层差异性分析

随着勘探程度的深入，为了扩大四川盆地天然气勘探领域、寻找新的勘探接替区，四川盆地的勘探区域由盆内逐渐向盆缘延伸。在这种背景下，川东北地区须家河组二段相继取得新的勘探成果，但在勘探开发过程中逐渐暴露了诸如区块之间气井产能差异大，储层的碎屑组分、结构及厚度、物性、孔隙结构差异明显等问题，制约了勘探开发的步伐。针对上述问题，根据岩芯观察描述、分析化验资料及测井解释成果，从沉积、成岩方面入手，对比剖析了川东北龙岗和营山地区须二段储层特征的差异性及其成因，认为远离物源区和高能水体的反复淘洗是造成储层差异性的首要因素，强烈的压实作用和多期石英加大对储层差异性起关键作用，自生绿泥石衬边胶结和长石选择性溶蚀最终决定了储层差异性。从而解释了气藏勘探开发中遇到的诸多问题，对有效指导该区的下一步勘探开发工作具有重要意义。     

山西传统民居美学思想初探

从历史、形式与内容、人与自然等三方面对山西传统民居的美学思想做一些探讨     

民族的血缘性及其在当代中国的演化

在中国历史和现实中,谈民族无论如何是和血缘分不开的.中国人有认祖归宗的传统,实质上就是一种血缘认同.基于此,我们对民族概念的界定,也应该从实际出发,回归到中国社会一般理解和运用的那种含义,而不必去跟随外来话语莫衷一是.民族具有血缘性,除了一部分真实之外,更大部分是出于认同需要的“血缘拟制”.民族过程的基本倾向之一是民族的血缘性不断下降,而反映这种变化的直观表现就是族际通婚.改革开放是中国各民族交往交流交融最为深刻的时期,也是中国各民族的血缘性得到最为深刻改造的时期.无论是对照以往的调查资料还是经验观察,都可知当前我国族际婚姻的数量在增多,范围在扩大.族际通婚的增加淡化了各民族自身的血缘性,却增添了各民族之间血缘的联通性.各民族通过族际通婚将自己的血缘扩散到其他民族的过程,也就是中华各民族之间的血缘联系得到更为巩固的过程.     

Sexuality in Older Adults (65+)—An Overview of the Literature,Part 1: Sexual Function and its Difficulties

Objectives: The aim of the current article was to provide an overview of literature on sexual function and sexual difficulties in older adults. Method: The authors conducted a narrative review of papers published in English between January 2005 and July 2015 based on an extensive search in PsycINFO. Results: The review showed that although common biological changes may adversely affect sexual function in old age, sexual experience seems to also be affected by psychological and interpersonal factors. Conclusions: Greater life expectancy and better medical care will result in older individuals with chronic diseases living longer. The need for help to cope with changes in sexual health is likely to increase in older adults, as sexuality may be negatively affected through several pathways.     

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth – A Croatian longitudinal study

Background

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder.

中国养老保险缴费对消费和储蓄的影响

考虑到家庭可能面临信贷约束,同时可能有目标储蓄的动机,当期养老金缴费可能会减少当期可支配收入,进而抑制消费,并可能提高储蓄率。使用城镇住户调查2002—2009年9省市的数据,利用养老保险缴费率和养老保险参与率的城市差别随时间的变化,构建家庭养老金缴费的工具变量,实证研究发现:在2006年之前,尽管增加养老保险覆盖率本身有助于刺激消费,在给定缴费前的收入水平以及养老保险覆盖状态时,提高养老金缴费率会显著抑制缴费家庭的消费。另外,养老保险缴费负担对总消费的影响主要也是负面的。     

推进城镇化是解决"三农"问题的根本出路

十六大报告提出农村要走中国特色的城镇化道路 ,是符合我国国情及农村生产力的发展水平的 ,标明我们已跳出了就“三农”解决“三农”问题的思路 ,开辟了农村经济发展的新思路。要注意从国情出发 ,走多元化的城镇化道路并加强对小城镇的规划和管理。     

A multistate approach for estimating the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus by using data from a prevalent cohort study

Summary.  Cohort studies of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) provide useful information on the past pattern of HIV diagnoses, progression of the disease and use of antiretroviral therapy. We propose a new method for using individual data from an open prevalent cohort study to estimate the incidence of HIV, by jointly modelling the HIV diagnosis, the inclusion in the cohort and the progression of the disease in a Markov model framework. The estimation procedure involves the construction of a likelihood function which takes into account the probability of observing the total number of subjects who are enrolled in the cohort and the probabilities of passage through the stages of disease for each observed subject conditionally on being included in the cohort. The estimator of the HIV infection rate is defined as the function which maximizes a penalized likelihood, and the solution of this maximization problem is approximated on a basis of cubic M -splines. The method is illustrated by using cohort data from a hospital-based surveillance system of HIV infection in Aquitaine, a region of south-western France. A simulation study is performed to study the ability of the model to reconstruct the incidence of HIV from prevalent cohort data.     

统计指数体系理论的若干问题

研究统计指数理论发展的历史,可以发现这样一个问题:东西方统计指数理论都在不同程度上强调数量指标指数和质量指标指数的联系关系,突出指数体系的地位和作用。怎样看待这个问题,如何认识编制指数与指数体系之间的关系,是指数方法论上值得引起重视的问题。 利用经济现象动态之间的联系关系,可以更有效地发挥编制指数的作用,但是,从方法角度考虑,要否严格保持数量指标指数和质量指标指数之间的衔接,建立指数体系关系,却是值得探讨的。有关编制指数和指数体系的关系,能否以指数体系为基点来考虑指数式的应用,或是以指数体系表现的优劣来评价指数式的是非得失,以及指数体系本身的作用,它担负着怎样的分析任务,应该怎样加以合理应用,本文想就这些问题,提出一些看法。     

Modernity as Masquerade: Representations of Modernity and Identity in Turkish Humour Magazines

This article aims at an alternative analysis of Turkish “modernity” by analysing the representations in a popular humour magazine. This study departs from the idea that representations in “low” discourses in Turkey can provide us with a text other than those of the official-dominant discourses in order to see how the certainty and positivity attributed to the modern identity in the dominant ideology is elaborated, demystified, and subverted as well as contained. Essentially, in the magazine, one of the main sources of humour derives from the clash of two main identities, between those who are modern, civil, urban, and effeminate and those who are traditional, uncivil, rural, and super-masculine. In the modern urban space, the modern and traditional become a stake in the power struggles between groups. This struggle operates through tastes, styles, and the body, which are at the same time means of identity construction as well as marks of identity. This duality and the concomitant dualities have come to structure all significatory practices to such an extent that everything gets symbolically overloaded by these series of dualities. In this struggle, the essence and appearance duality is the main framework within which Turkey's modernity and identity are represented. “Modernity” is signified as a masquerade, a play of appearances and a stake in the power struggles among groups rather than as a measure of progress. Bodies, sexuality, and masculinity become the nodal points of the expression of identity struggles, not only of social groups but also of the Turkish nation.