Estimation of Polygons and Areas

Abstract.  In forestry the problem of estimating areas is central. This paper addresses area estimation through fitting of a polygon to observed coordinate data. Coordinates of corners and points along the sides of a simple closed polygon are measured with independent random errors. This paper focuses on procedures to adjust the coordinates for estimation of the polygon and its area. Different new techniques that consider different amounts of prior information are described and compared. The different techniques use restricted least squares, maximum likelihood and the expectation maximization algorithm. In a simulation study it is shown that the root mean square errors of the estimates are decreased when coordinates are adjusted before estimation. Minor further improvement is achieved by using prior information about the order and the distribution of the points along the sides of the polygon. This paper has its origin in forestry but there are also other applications.     

Regularized Posteriors in Linear Ill‐Posed Inverse Problems

Abstract. We study the Bayesian solution of a linear inverse problem in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian prior and noise distribution. Our contribution is to propose a new Bayes estimator which is a linear and continuous estimator on the whole space and is stronger than the mean of the exact Gaussian posterior distribution which is only defined as a measurable linear transformation. Our estimator is the mean of a slightly modified posterior distribution called regularized posterior distribution. Frequentist consistency of our estimator and of the regularized posterior distribution is proved. A Monte Carlo study and an application to real data confirm good small‐sample properties of our procedure.     

FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES DO NOT PREDICT REAL ACTIVITY

The past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. We then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible. Either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects, or we (collectively) have failed in our efforts to measure monetary policy. ( JEL E52)     

A post‐socialist legacy in transnational families: Russian and Polish women in Finland

In this article, we bridge the analytical gap between transnational anthropology and the anthropology of post‐socialism to explore the transnational family lives of Russian and Polish women in Finland. We point to three interrelated aspects of the post‐socialist legacy – (1) an inclusive understanding and practice of family that involves the interactions of immediate and extended family configurations; (2) intergenerational solidarity among women; and (3) feminine subjectivity built on the socialist ideal of a working mother. Our ethnographies illustrate that Russian and Polish women maintain their transnational families through networks of transnationally dispersed extended families. In women's lives and selves, traditional gendered motherhood and the liberal idea of a working woman are combined and supported by women's intergenerational companionship across borders. Our case studies show that such concrete, informal relations of affection and care provide women with a sense of security and self‐worth amid transnational change.     

Raising cosmopolitans: localized educational strategies of international families in Shanghai

This qualitative research documents the educational strategies of international migrants to Shanghai who are attempting to raise their children as cosmopolitans through immersion in local Chinese schools. We distinguish this localizing educational strategy from the established network of international schools designed to serve the families of corporate expatriates. Instead, our research subjects consist of self‐initiated expatriates, or ‘middling transnationals’, who have chosen to prioritize immersion in the language and culture of China by sending their children to local schools. This localized, or Sinocentric, model exposes non‐Chinese children to a challenging and nationalistic Chinese curriculum. Our analysis of these practices as a form of cosmopolitan education challenges both the goal of teaching a universal and placeless ethical cosmopolitanism and the assumption that a meaningful cosmopolitan education must take place in the idealized setting of a liberal cosmopolitan school system. We also highlight the difficulties families face in this approach, describing this as an ‘entangled cosmopolitanism’, an enriching but uncomfortable engagement with both local and home‐country educational cultures.     

相约周四,分享成功经验

这是一个人力资源从业人员相互学习和交流的平台这是一个分享成功者经验的机会！     

PRICE PREDICTION ERRORS AND REAL ACTIVITY: A REASSESSMENT

Rational expectations, natural-rate macro-models in which aggregate demand disturbances affect the real sector through price prediction errors, while powerful and tractable analytical tools, are often perceived to be of questionable empirical relevance. This paper reexamines the empirical role of price prediction errors in determining the level of real aggregate activity. The approach is distinguished by accounting for aggregate supply-side disturbances and by more careful treatment of natural rates. Contrary to some previous studies, we find considerable empirical support for the hypothesis that demand-driven price level surprises are positively and significantly correlated with aggregate real economic activity.     

Quasi‐Symmetric Graphical Log‐Linear Models

Abstract. We propose an extension of graphical log‐linear models to allow for symmetry constraints on some interaction parameters that represent homologous factors. The conditional independence structure of such quasi‐symmetric (QS) graphical models is described by an undirected graph with coloured edges, in which a particular colour corresponds to a set of equality constraints on a set of parameters. Unlike standard QS models, the proposed models apply with contingency tables for which only some variables or sets of the variables have the same categories. We study the graphical properties of such models, including conditions for decomposition of model parameters and of maximum likelihood estimates.     

Beyond control? The mechanics and dynamics of ‘informal’ remittances between Europe and Africa

Abstract Policy making usually assumes that the best way to harness migrant remittances for development is by shifting them into the regulated money transfer sector. However, much research evidence concludes that alternative methods are often cheaper and more reliable, accessible and convenient. In this article, we explore this tension between policy objectives and evidence. Based on a review of remittance mechanisms in seven sub‐Saharan African countries, we question the validity of the distinction between ‘formal’ and ‘informal’ remittances. We conclude that the formalization of remittance systems should not be approached as a regulatory task carried out from the top down, but as a bottom‐up evolutionary and organic process that should be encouraged. We suggest that the current regulatory thrust in this area is likely to be counterproductive, since it risks undermining the many vibrant institutions emerging through the movement of migrants and their money, together with their potential to enhance much needed economic and social development.     

Victim-Offender Mediation in the Italian Juvenile Justice System: The Role of the Social Worker

Correspondence to Anna Costanza Baldry, Department of Social and Developmental Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, via dei Marsi, 78, 00185 Rome, Italy Summary Mediation, according to the restorative justice approach, balancesthe victims' needs against holding offenders responsible forthe harm caused and requiring them to make reparation for it.Victim-offender mediation in the Italian juvenile justice systemis not, as yet, widely implemented. Social workers, employedby the Juvenile Criminal Justice Department, are the only professionalsinvolved in mediation. Results from a national survey conducted with social workerswho are responsible for victim-offender mediation as part oftheir probation duties, show that mediation programmes remainlimited and unstructured. Individual, locally based experiences,not equally distributed around the country and mainly involvingpetty crimes, indicate that in most cases primary attentionis paid to the young offender and that the victim's interestsare not considered. Social workers claim that, although theyperceive the advantages of a restorative justice approach tocrime, they lack the skills as well as the time to undertakethis duty adequately. The research findings also address thepotential biases of offering mediation programmes as part ofa probation order, thereby affecting the independence and neutralityof mediation. This risk can be avoided if social workers actingas mediators are thoroughly trained, as in the case study ofattempted murder presented below. The case study reported shows,moreover, that mediation can be successfully undertaken evenwith serious offences and that both the victim and the offendercan benefit from it. Issues related to the implications andsocial policy impact of mediation as a social work practiceare also considered.