Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Comparison of Four New General Classes of Search Designs

A factor screening experiment identifies a few important factors from a large list of factors that potentially influence the response. If a list consists of m factors each at three levels, a design is a subset of all possible 3 ^m runs. This paper considers the problem of finding designs with small numbers of runs, using the search linear model introduced in Srivastava (1975). The paper presents four new general classes of these 'search designs', each with 2 m −1 runs, which permit, at most, two important factors out of m factors to be searched for and identified. The paper compares the designs for 4 ≤ m ≤ 10, using arithmetic and geometric means of the determinants, traces and maximum characteristic roots of particular matrices. Two of the designs are found to be superior in all six criteria studied. The four designs are identical for m = 3 and this design is an optimal design in the class of all search designs under the six criteria. The four designs are also identical for m = 4 under some row and column permutations.     

The quality of sustainability: Agroecological partnerships and the geographic branding of California winegrapes

Quality and sustainability are both socially constructed, ambiguous terms, but they have not been heretofore linked in the rural studies literature. The “quality turn” has received particular attention from researchers for its potential to organize linkages among various forces in agrofood systems, providing more income to producers by appealing to affluent, reflexive consumers. A distinct line of rural research has attended to the challenge of agro-environmental pollution and regulation, but this research trajectory has been subsumed under the broader paradigm of sustainability. This article seeks to contribute to discussions about quality in the agrofood sector by analyzing the potential of fusing rural resource protection practices with place-based marketing of enhanced quality, drawing from an empirical study of the California winegrape industry. In several California commodities, agroecological partnerships are becoming the chief vehicle for extending sustainable agricultural practices. California's winegrape farmers have undertaken more partnerships to greater effect than those of any other US crop, and they are now discursively linking their sustainable farming practices, environmental quality, and wine quality. This marks a new linkage of two heretofore discrete social imaginaries. This article argues that “quality” is a term that can conceptually link increasing consumer demand for differentiated product taste with increasing regulatory pressure for environmental protection. Synergistic benefits from such a linkage have the potential to strengthen rural development initiatives. Making progress toward sustainability requires collective action on the part of producers, and in some commodities, may mesh well with efforts to enhance foodstuff quality.     

Every Dot has a Meaning

Family therapy in Australia has recently begun a conversation with the indigenous people of this country. Part of this dialogue has involved family therapists listening to the stories of violence and oppression perpetrated against the Aboriginal people under the name of “protection”. This article is part of the ongoing exchange between family therapists and Kooris documenting the suffering of “the stolen generation”. Here two young people removed from their families as small children and raised in the same Aboriginal children's home, speak personally through their art, of an agonising search for family and cultural identity.     

宗教社会学范式及理论的新进展

20世纪90年代以后,宗教社会学领域出现了新的理论范式。新范式是理解美国宗教的框架,旧范式则来源于欧洲的宗教传统。新范式的内容包括理性选择理论、似真性理论和仪式理论。目前,新范式开始运用于中国、印度等国家的宗教研究,似乎要成为普世性的理论模式。     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.     

Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

Mother–Adolescent and Father–Adolescent Relationships After Divorce: Relations with Emerging Adults’ Romantic Attachment

This longitudinal study examined relations between mother–child relationship quality and father support in adolescence (ages 15–19) and emerging adults’ (ages 24–28) romantic anxiety and avoidance in a sample that experienced parental divorce in childhood (n = 72). A significant interactive effect of mother–adolescent relationship quality and father support on romantic anxiety occurred. High levels of father support protected emerging adults from the negative effects of a low quality mother–adolescent relationship. These results highlight the importance of examining effects of one parental relationship in the context of the other and the role that nonresidential fathers play in influencing their offspring’s romantic attachment.