Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

A New Multicriteria Risk Mapping Approach Based on a Multiattribute Frontier Concept

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components’ importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high‐risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info‐gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base.     

Community Organization Project for the Development of Aborigines in an Area North and North-East of Alice Springs

It is recognized in the field of social work that institutionalization of any people produces certain negative and detrimental patterns of behaviour. In geriatrics present practice is away from institutionalization. The aged are encouraged to find employment or interests and to move out of institutions. Emphasis is placed upon individual flats and self-care with any supportive services that are necessary. More and more the emphasis in child care is upon foster care in ordinary homes scattered through the general community and culture to which the children belong.     

Medieval origins of constitutional government in the West

Conclusions This survey of the political history of nonwestern countries has shown that Russia, Japan, and China never developed the levels of constitutional government found in late medieval Europe. Three of the four social origins of constitutionalism in the West, rough balance between crown and noble, contractual-feudal military organization, and lordpeasant dynamics have been largely absent from these countries. Nor has any other substantial source (such as religion or economic organization) been uncovered that compensated for these absences or which otherwise fostered constitutionalism. Consequently, the major institutes of medieval constitutionalism, rural local government, autonomous towns, estates, and the rule of law, have also been largely absent. Village government, on the other hand, which was fostered in the West by the continuance of Germanic peasant organization and by the commune movement of the medieval period, has been found to be quite ubiquitous outside Europe. Village government existed — and in vital forms — in all three nonwestern regions, but always dwarfed by the power of authoritarian organs of the surrounding state structures. Thus, village government in and of itself lacked constitutional significance unless it was able to fuse with other, stronger constitutional institutions as it did in the West.To avoid the charge that the present study is only another sentimentalization of remote, mythic past, the modern significance of medieval constitutionalism for liberal democracy must be established. Each component carried forth — and with essential continuity — one or more of the pivotal aspects of modern representative government, at least in those countries in which medieval constitutionalism was not destroyed by military-bureaucratic absolutism or by a labor-repressive commercialization of agriculture. Among those aspects of liberal democracy are citizenship rights, representative institutions, checks and balances on central authority, and the rule of law.Rural local government contained representative government, from tribal popular assemblies to gentry cliques, which persisted in one form or another. Citizenship found its expression in participatory government and in the chartered liberties of village communes and frontier settlements. Local government in itself could not act as a check on central power; it could, however, provide a scattered but collectively almost insurmountable obstacle to state penetration of the localities. Towns provided various levels of citizenship and representation, from narrow oligarchy to representation of the guilds and plebeian classes. The progressiveness of negative freedom (freedom from feudal authority) enjoyed by lower classes is easily missed by focusing too narrowly on the oligarchic nature of many municipalities. To be rid of seigneurial controls and to have access to a more rational judiciary were benefits that were not lost on the urban masses streaming in from the countryside. Royal dependence on revenue from the towns served as a de facto check on central power inasmuch as infringing the rights of one endangered and unified the others.The representative nature of the estates as well as their serving as checks and balances on the monarchy are very straightforward. The estates became the central arena of politics in successive centuries, and the struggle for citizenship rights was fought here in two senses. A main battle of liberalization was fought over the franchise, the right to vote and send representatives to the national assembly. Second, politics within the representative assembly often centered on extending freedoms and liberties by acts of legislation. The rule of law was a crown ornamenting and protecting medieval constitutionalism as well as liberal democracy. Law, that brooding omnipresence in the sky as Oliver Wendell Hohnes called it, served to guarantee citizenship rights, ensure proper consultation with the estates, and provide a normative and procedural grid in which the monarchal state had to act.It is important to note once more that medieval constitutionalism was not almost democracy, nor was it sufficient cause of liberal democracy. It did, however, provide many of the critical components including representation, citizenship, checks and balances, and the rule of law, that were absent in other parts of the world. Nor was constitutional government always accompanied by trust, cooperation, and acceptance of the political status quo. Tension, conflict, and often open hostility were more the norm as monarchs endeavored to rid themselves of meddlesome pests. But their animosities were held in check by constitutional protections and the strength of the opposition. Monarchs could only bide their time, abide by the governing rules and practices, and await the opportunity to shed what they viewed as the fetters of antiquated politics.The constitutional achievement, then, was a modest and frail one that had inherent instabilities owing to monarchal/state ambitions. It would be undermined in many countries where the commercialization of agriculture and the exigencies of modern warfare combined to bring about authoritarian relations and institutions. Elsewhere, where the impact of war and commercialization were less pronounced, medieval constitutionalism would serve as a basis for liberal democracy.     

Pre-Sentence Reports: Does Quality Matter?

In recent years much attention has been paid to research into the value and effectiveness of pre-sentence reports and this has contributed to the emergence of the concept of "quality assurance". This encompasses the practice of monitoring reports for "quality" and "effectiveness" and the assumption that there is a positive association between these two factors. In other words, higher quality will normally be associated with a higher level of agreement or concordance between report recommendation and sentencing outcome. Using evidence gained from a sample of pre-sentence reports from a busy magistrates' court in the south-west of England, the authors' three main findings show that this is not the case. First, contrary to expectation, there was little or no relationship between quality of report and concordance rate for the whole sample of pre-sentence reports. Second, whilst there was some relationship between quality of report and concordance for those reports which proposed community sentences, this was not significant. Finally, whilst report writers were generally in favour of quality assurance systems, they did not have any universal definition of "quality" in relation to pre-sentence reports. As a result of these findings the authors question existing practice and make several suggestions for improvement, including the replacement of pre-sentence reports with a new personal social enquiry report and an alternative model of quality assurance based on models from social science. Finally, several key recommendations are identified as essential in order to safeguard the crucial role of the Probation Service as adviser to sentencers.     

An exploration of the relationships between student racial background and the school sub-contexts of office discipline referrals: a critical race theory analysis

A growing body of research indicates that exclusionary school discipline practices disproportionately impact students of color. Some scholars have theorized that racial disparities likely vary across school sub-contexts, as implicit bias in perceptions of student behavior may be more influential in locations where students and adults have weaker relationships (e.g. bathrooms and hallways, compared to the classroom). Guided by Critical Race Theory, this study used administrative data from a large urban school district (n = 20,166 discipline incidents, 9,170 students, and 185 schools) to consider the relationship between student race and the locations where youth are disciplined. Results indicate that Black, Latino/a, and Multiracial youth were no more likely than White students to have a discipline incident take place outside the classroom. These findings suggest attention is needed to the role of systemic bias and colorblind policies and practices in discipline disparities.     

Lesbian shame: its relationship to identity integration and attachment

Using self-report measures, this survey study explored the relationship between internalized shame and both lesbian identity integration and attachment styles. Compared to other research, this U.S. sample of 317 highly educated, mid-life, mostly European-American self-identitied lesbians reported higher levels of internalized shame, lesbian identity integration, and dismissing attachment. As predicted, shame scores decreased as lesbian identity integration increased. Likewise, high levels of secure attachment were associated with less shame while high levels of fearful and preoccupied attachment were associated with greater shame. Contrary to prediction, high levels of dismissing attachment were associated with greater shame. These results suggest the pervasive effects of shame even for a sample of educationally and occupationally successful lesbians.