Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

NGO Hybridisation as an Outcome of HIV Services Delivery in Global Fund-Supported Programmes in Ukraine

Ukraine has one of the world’s fastest growing HIV rates and was one of the largest recipients of funding from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GF). Doctoral research recently completed by the author investigates the conduct and practice of international and national nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) as Principal Recipients of GF grants in Ukraine from 2004 to 2012. The study aimed to understand how NGO-based services were implemented in the context of a state-owned health care system. An ethnographic enquiry including 50 participant interviews was conducted in three oblasts in Ukraine, and in its capital, Kyiv, between 2011 and 2013. The paper is based on a doctoral research and presents some of the findings that emerged from the analysis. The author argues that the accent on NGO-run services promoted by GF has rendered the original grass roots, community-based NGOs, to be undermined or replaced by ‘quasi’, hybrid NGOs created by health officials and AIDS centres head doctors. The outcome of such hybridization is a weakened civil society that is dependent on external funding and is unable to genuinely represent their communities.     

Transition to First Marriage in Reform-Era Urban China: The Persistent Effect of Education in a Period of Rapid Social Change

The negative association between education and marriage timing is often explained by an economic independence theory: education provides women with independent economic resources to reject the caregiver role in marriage. However, cross-national evidence shows the importance of cultural and historical continuity in marriage formation. This article examines the relationship between educational attainment and the timing of first marriage in reform-era urban China since the 1980s. Reform-era urban China provides a strong case to examine both theories: it has a strong marriage norm, but it has also experienced a rapid increase in gender inequality in the labor market during the economic reform. Using detailed education and work histories of 3,808 respondents from two waves of the Chinese General Social Survey, this article uses discrete-time hazard regressions to contrast the marriage experience between two cohorts that faced different labor market constraints. The evidence fits better with a path dependence theory. Specifically, the effect of education on marriage timing, for both women and men, is not significantly different between these two cohorts. The results encourage attention to local institutions and local culture in understanding the relationship between conditions in the labor market and marriage formation.     

Gender, Ethnicity, and Power

Group-based power is generally associated with three types of group distinctions: adult-child, gender, and ethnicity. We argue that gender-based power is not comparable to ethnic-based power, in part because the forms and degree of institutional discrimination experienced by men and women of subordinate ethnic groups are not similar to one another, and in part because stereotypes and categorization processes pertaining to gender are not comparable across ethnic groups. Finally, in experiments using college students as participants, we show that whether applicants are placed into occupations that would enhance or attenuate group-based inequality depends jointly on job applicants' ethnicity and gender. Implications for theories of inequality based on gender and ethnicity and the relationship of gendered power to other group-based forms of power are discussed.     

Evaluating Weight of Evidence in the Mystery of Balkan Endemic Nephropathy

Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN) is a chronic, progressive wasting disease of the kidneys, endemic in certain rural regions of the Balkan nations Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Romania. It is irreversible and ultimately fatal. Though this disease was first described in the 1950s, its causes have been a mystery and a source of much academic and clinical contention. Possible etiologic agents that have been explored include exposure to metals and metalloids, viruses and bacteria, and the dietary toxins aristolochic acid (AA) and ochratoxin A (OTA). AA is a toxin produced by weeds of the genus Aristolochia, common in Balkan wheat fields. Aristolochia seeds may intermingle with harvested grains and thus inadvertently enter human diets. OTA is a mycotoxin (fungal toxin) common in many foods, including cereal grains. In this study, we analyzed the weight of evidence for each of the suspected causes of BEN using the Bradford Hill criteria (BHC): nine conditions that determine weight of evidence for a causal relationship between an agent and a disease. Each agent postulated to cause BEN was evaluated using the nine criteria, and for each criterion was given a rating based on the strength of the association between exposure to the substance and BEN. From the overall available scientific evidence for each of these suspected risk factors, AA is the agent with the greatest weight of evidence in causing BEN. We describe other methods for testing causality from epidemiological studies, which support this conclusion of AA causing BEN.     

Adolescent Gambling: Understanding the Role of Stress and Coping

The central variables of stress, coping, and gambling severity were examined along three lines of inquiry. The first addressed whether adolescents with gambling problems reported a greater number of minor or major stressful (i.e., negative) life events relative to others. The second examined whether more with gambling problems employed less-effective coping styles, such as those characterized as less task- or solution-focused, and more emotion- or avoidance-focused coping. Finally, the third question explored whether adolescents’ coping styles mediated the association between stress and gambling severity. Ranging from 11 to 20 years of age, 2,156 high-school students completed instruments assessing gambling involvement, gambling severity, stressful life events, and coping styles. Results indicated that, overall, adolescents with gambling-related problems reported more negative life events relative to social gamblers and non-gamblers. When negative life events were further separated into major and minor events, results revealed that problem gamblers reported more major negative life events but not more minor negative life events relative to others. Results indicated that adolescents with gambling-related problems used less task-focused coping, and more avoidance-focused coping. Males, but not females, who experience gambling-related problems reported using more emotion-focused coping strategies. Finally, emotion-oriented coping was found to mediate the relationship between negative life events and gambling severity. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.

The Effects of Metropolitan Residence on the Off-Farm Earnings of Farm Families in the United States1

Abstract Previous research on the effects of urbanization on farming and farm families has focused on the consequences of urban expansion on farming practice rather than on the well-being of farm families. Proximity to urban areas has been found to alter the way farm families utilize the nonfarm labor market. In this study, the off-farm earnings of husbands and wives in farm families are compared across metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas using data from the March supplement to the 1989 Current Population Survey. Censored regression models (tobit) and decomposition are used to demonstrate the effects of nonfarm labor market differences on off-farm labor force participation and earnings. The analysis reveals that farm family members, as expected, have significantly higher rates of participation and earnings in metropolitan areas. But this analysis also reveals that increases in off-farm participation are likely to have a larger effect on total off-farm earnings in nonmetropolitan areas than returns to those already working off-farm. The potential for increases in off-farm earnings will be underestimated in nonmetro areas when changes in participation in the off-farm labor market are not taken into account.