Shoplifting,monitoring and price determination

Shoplifting is a major crime problem costing American retailers more than $10 billion per year. Surprisingly, despite the evolvement of an extensive theoretical literature on the economics of some major economic crimes, shoplifting has failed to attract economists’ attention. The present paper applies the economic toolbox to this problem, developing a principal–agent type model of shoplifting and shoplifting control. The model examines the customer's decision of whether to shoplift or not as well as the store's profit-maximizing price and monitoring intensity. The paper challenges the conventional wisdom that the observed rise in shoplifting calls for intensified monitoring and higher prices, showing that a rational response to increased shoplifting involves a reduction in both monitoring and prices.     

Collecting feedback as a tool to reduce care paralysis: something for family group conferencing coordinators?

Family group conferencing (FGC) coordinators in public mental healthcare are confronted with clients who have little faith in professionals and organizations, who hold off decisions in their family life, who avoid care and who sometimes behave in a hostile manner. A lack of initiative to deal with their situation is not only reserved for clients – all bystanders, including professionals, can suffer from it. The multiplicity and severity of the client's problems lead to a situation wherein everyone involved waits for the initiative of the other. The independence of the FGC coordinator – a fellow citizen, who is free of organizational loyalties and comes to assist other citizens in establishing a plan – seems to work well with the client group of the public mental healthcare. However, the coordinator cannot always prevent deferral or failure of conferences. Drawing on empirical and theoretical findings, this paper considers the possibility of collecting feedback as a way to contribute positively to the alliance between FGC coordinators and those for whom a conference is deployed. We highlight findings from three case studies that centred on multiproblem families. The findings indicate the importance of feedback theory for FGC coordinators in enhancing trust and engagement.     

An Empirical Assessment of Households Livelihood Vulnerability: The Case of Rural Ghana

The recent years witnessed a sharp drop in China’s demographic dividend; therefore, some reform measures about China’s fertility policy have been adopted to optimize population structures and to maintain demographic dividend. However, our simulation results reveal that the new two-child fertility policy cannot effectively deal with population ageing, and that China’s fertility policy needs further adjustment. Specifically, we find that the new two-child fertility policy will deteriorate demographic dividend before 2050, through combination of simulation results and formula derivation. Aiming to stabilize demographic dividend at ideal range all the time, we build nonlinear integer programming model to propose an appropriate reforming path for China’s fertility policy. Then, we simulate and compare demographic developments under the proposed reforming path with those under three possible fertility policies: one-child, two-child and no fertility restriction, verifying that the proposed reforming path has better performance on stabilizing demographic dividend than these three fertility policies have. Finally, sensitivity analysis of upper bound of research interval is conducted to evaluate the effect of the upper bound on proposed reforming path. Based on these results, we suggest that China should continue to execute current strict fertility policy before 2032, then begin to relax it gradually especially during 2036–2041, and completely cancel fertility policy after 2065.     

Adolescents’ and Young Adults’ Online Risk Taking: The Role of Gist and Verbatim Representations

Young people are exposed to and engage in online risky activities, such as disclosing personal information and making unknown friends online. Little research has examined the psychological mechanisms underlying young people's online risk taking. Drawing on fuzzy trace theory, we examined developmental differences in adolescents’ and young adults’ online risk taking and assessed whether differential reliance on gist representations (based on vague, intuitive knowledge) or verbatim representations (based on specific, factual knowledge) could explain online risk taking. One hundred and twenty two adolescents (ages 13–17) and 172 young adults (ages 18–24) were asked about their past online risk‐taking behavior, intentions to engage in future risky online behavior, and gist and verbatim representations. Adolescents had significantly higher intentions to take online risks than young adults. Past risky online behaviors were positively associated with future intentions to take online risks for adolescents and negatively for young adults. Gist representations about risk negatively correlated with intentions to take risks online in both age groups, while verbatim representations positively correlated with online risk intentions, particularly among adolescents. Our results provide novel insights about the underlying mechanisms involved in adolescent and young adults’ online risk taking, suggesting the need to tailor the representation of online risk information to different age groups.     

Data Dependent Cells Chi‐Square Test With Recurrent Events

We consider a recurrent event wherein the inter‐event times are independent and identically distributed with a common absolutely continuous distribution function F. In this article, interest is in the problem of testing the null hypothesis that F belongs to some parametric family where the q‐dimensional parameter is unknown. We propose a general Chi‐squared test in which cell boundaries are data dependent. An estimator of the parameter obtained by minimizing a quadratic form resulting from a properly scaled vector of differences between Observed and Expected frequencies is used to construct the test. This estimator is known as the minimum chi‐square estimator. Large sample properties of the proposed test statistic are established using empirical processes tools. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the test under parameter misspecification, and our procedures are applied to a fleet of Boeing 720 jet planes' air conditioning system failures.     

Factors Affecting Juvenile Court Decisions in Israel: A Multivariate Approach*

This paper investigates the factors influencing the disposition of cases in juvenile courts. The factors considered are the prior record of the offender, the nature of the offense, the recommendation of the probation officer, and the age of the offender. These four factors are essential components of the juvenile justice system and as such are perceived to be crucial for the understanding of the court's decision. A multivariate analysis of the data is undertaken using the method of log-linear analysis for hierarchical models. In contrast to other studies that have utilized the same method but with fewer variables, the model arrived at in the paper seems to be more accurate and suggests that while the offense and the prior criminal record are quite important factors, their influence on the disposition of cases is greatly bound by the age of the offender and the recommendation of the probation officer.     

The Explanatory Power of Choice Bracketing: A Commentary on Read et al., “Choice Bracketing”

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty -