The structure and behavior of defoliating insect/forest systems

Summary Using four detailed and complex simulation models we derive a framework for predicting behavior of any defoliating insect/forest system. The framework uses simple and easily gathered biological information on four sets of state variables, each with a characteristic temporal scale, to predict presence, absence or form of key ecological processes acting on or between the variables. The combination of these key processes enables prediction of system equilibrium structure and this structure can be used to derive the temporal behavior of the system. Four qualitatively different classes of system behavior arise from the equilibrium structures. The framework is tested against twelve other systems and field invalidation experiments are outlined. Forest defoliator research and management implications are discussed.     

Optimal paired comparison designs for first-order interactions

In many fields of applications paired comparisons are used in which either full or partial profiles of the alternatives are presented. For this situation we introduce an appropriate model and derive optimal designs in the presence of interactions when all attributes have the same number of levels.     

Optimal design for discrete choice experiments

In this paper we derive locally optimal designs for discrete choice experiments. As in Kanninen (2002) we consider a multinomial logistic model, which contains various qualitative attributes as well as a quantitative one, which may range over a sufficiently large interval. The derived optimal designs improve upon those given in the literature, but have the feature that every choice set contains alternatives, which coincide in all but the quantitative attributes. The multinomial logistic model will then lead to a response behavior, which is apparently unrealistic.     

Detecting the scales at which birds respond to structure in urban landscapes

Little empirical information exists about how birds respond to urban landscape structure across multiple scales. We explored how the variation in percent tree canopy cover, at four different scales, affected the abundance of bird species across various urban sites in North America. Bird counts were derived from previous studies, and tree patches were measured from aerial photographs that represented areas of 0.2 km², 1.5 km², 25.0 km², and 85.0 km². At each of the four areas, we conducted regressions between bird counts and percent cover of various tree patch sizes. From these analyses, we determined the area (called the best prediction area—BPA) and the patch size (called the best patch size—BPS) that accounted for a significant amount of the variation in bird counts, beyond the variation accounted for by these parameters measured at other scales. BPA and BPS were calculated primarily to take into account the high degree of collinearity that existed among the amount of tree canopy cover measured across the four scales.We calculated BPA and BPS values for a variety of bird species and ascertained whether larger species had relatively larger BPS and BPA values. In the spring, middle-sized to large birds (16.6 g–184.0 g) had relatively larger BPS values than did smaller birds (3.2 g–16.5 g), but in the summer, the largest birds (61.7 g–576.0 g) had small BPS values. Spring BPA values showed a similar result but summer BPA values did not. A majority of birds of all sizes had summer BPA values at the finer scales of 0.2 km² and 1.5 km². Overall, body size was an approximate predictor of the area and patch size at which a species responds to trees in a landscape, but many exceptions did occur. These exceptions could be related to a variety of factors, one being the difficulty in relating human-biased measurements to avian measurements of a landscape. The method described in this study will help researchers design multi-scale studies to address the effect of landscape pattern on different animal species.     

The Efficacy of Emotionally Focused Couples Therapy and Behavioral Couples Therapy: A Meta‐Analysis

Behavioral couple therapy (BCT) and emotionally focused couples therapy (EFCT) are well‐established treatments to reduce couple distress. This meta‐analysis summarizes the current state of knowledge on the efficacy of these two therapy methods by focusing on randomized controlled trials only. A literature search revealed 33 suitable primary studies (2,730 participants in total), all of them measuring relationship satisfaction. Robust‐variance random‐effects meta‐analysis revealed medium effect sizes at post‐test (overall: g = 0.60; BCT: g = 0.53; EFCT: g = 0.73) and small effect sizes of 6 months after treatment (overall: g = 0.44; BCT: g = 0.35; EFCT: g = 0.66), but these gains were not maintained after 12 months (BCT only: g = 0.06). Between the two therapy methods, no significant effect size differences could be found. Results have to be interpreted with caution due to potential publication bias.