Tests for compound periodicities and estimating a non linear function

We propose two tests for testing compound periodicities which are the uniformly most powerful invariant decision procedures against simple periodicities. The second test can provide an excellent estimation of a compound periodic non linear function from observed data. These tests were compared with the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel by Monte Carlo studies and we found that all the tests showed high power and high probability of a correct decision when all the amplitudes of underlying periods were the same. However, if there are at least several different periods with unequal amplitudes, then the second test proposed always showed high power and high probability of a correct decision, whereas the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel gave 0 for the power and 0 for the probability of a correct decision, whatever the standard deviation of pseudo normal random numbers. Overall, the second test proposed is the best of all in view of the probability of a correct decision and power.     

Formalization of Urban Poor Vendors and their Contribution to Tourism Development in Manila,Philippines

The growth of tourism and tourism development affects the urban poor both positively and negatively. Positively, they have more opportunities to find jobs in the tourism sector or increase their income when their jobs are related to tourism. They can also be the beneficiaries of pro-poor tourism projects. Negatively, they are viewed as an obstacle to tourism development where clean and modern images are sought. This study looks at park vendors (a type of urban poor) in Rizal Park, Manila, Philippines. This group is unique because it is not treated as a hindrance to tourism development and the vendors are considered as the beneficiaries of pro-poor tourism projects. They are active contributors to tourism development. When a government agency formalized their businesses, vendors' safety and pride increased. This study provides a case in which a shift from the informal sector to the formal sector contributed to the increased welfare of the urban poor. The shift was possible because of a national tourism drive generating favorable conditions, and the vendors' struggle to obtain the right to work in the park. In this paper, I discuss how the vendors achieved a legal status and show current conditions of their work and their relationship with a government agency after obtaining the right. Data for this study were collected between 2005 and 2008.     

Recent Immigrant Settlement in the Nonmetropolitan United States: Evidence from Internal Census Data*

Abstract In the 1990s, studies have documented widespread growth of immigrants in U.S. communities not known as common destinations in the past. This trend has fueled population growth in some nonmetropolitan areas and offset population decline in other areas. In this paper, we examine the implications of recent foreign born in-migration for rural America. Our focus is on a collection of 59 nonmetropolitan counties where growth in foreign born stock offset declines in U.S. native population and resulted in increased local population by 2000. To understand these nonmetropolitan offset counties, we use confidential Census Bureau data that offer us the detailed geography and larger sample size needed to closely examine spatial shifts in the foreign born population, especially those recently arrived. Our findings illustrate dramatic compositional shifts in the populations of these areas, and suggest new demographic complexity in nonmetropolitan areas in the 21^st century.     

东亚近代史中的中日甲午战争

甲午战争虽然已逾百年,但我们从东亚近代史的历史研究视野看,甲午战争的意义不仅仅限于中国和日本两国之间.甲午战争不仅改变了东亚世界的国际秩序,也改变了日本人对国家、天皇的认识,影响了日本整个近代社会.同时,甲午战争不仅是中日五十年战争的开始,也是"大日本帝国体制"从开始到发展、到崩溃的起点.     

A simple test for the treatment effect in clinical trials with a sequential parallel comparison design and negative binomial outcomes

In placebo‐controlled, double‐blinded, randomized clinical trials, the presence of placebo responders reduces the effect size for comparison of the active drug group with the placebo group. An attempt to resolve this problem is to use the sequential parallel comparison design (SPCD). Although there are SPCDs with dichotomous or continuous outcomes, an SPCD with negative binomial outcomes—with which investigators deal eg, in clinical trials involving multiple sclerosis, where the investigators are still concerned about the presence of placebo responders—has not yet been discussed. In this article, we propose a simple test for the treatment effect in clinical trials with an SPCD and negative binomial outcomes. Through simulations, we show that the analysis method achieves the nominal type I error rate and power, whereas the sample size calculation provides the sample size with adequate power accuracy.     

Ecology of the fiddler crabUca (Thalassuca) vocans vocans (Linnaeus) (Decapoda: Ocypodidae) I. Daily activity in warm and cold seasons

Summary Field observations on the behaviour ofUca (Thalassuca) vocans vocans were made in the estuary of the Okukubi river, Okinawa Island. The formation of the feeding aggregation of wandering individuals or drove was found in warm seasons above an average monthly air temperature 20°C from April to early November, while the aggregation was little observed in cold seasons below the temperature from the middle of November to March. The members of the aggregation tended to move down from the upper levels of burrow area, rather than lower levels. This may be related to the richness of organic matters in the substratum of the lower levels as compared with the upper levels. The feeding aggregation was mostly composed of males, but in June females were numerously seen and its peak occurred in June. It suggested that the peak in June is related to both feeding and copulation. Behaviour different from warm seasons was observed in cold seasons. When feeding on surface soil orEnteromorpha the crabs carried a mass of surface soil or the alga into their burrow. It was though that this behaviour was related to the storage of food. It seems likely that the crabs maintain the population by the formation of the aggregation of wandering feeders in warm seasons when there are no algae and by feeding abundant algae as well as surface soil or by storing up food in good weather for bad one in cold seasons.     

Sequential parallel comparison design with two coprimary endpoints

A placebo‐controlled randomized clinical trial is required to demonstrate that an experimental treatment is superior to its corresponding placebo on multiple coprimary endpoints. This is particularly true in the field of neurology. In fact, clinical trials for neurological disorders need to show the superiority of an experimental treatment over a placebo in two coprimary endpoints. Unfortunately, these trials often fail to detect a true treatment effect for the experimental treatment versus the placebo owing to an unexpectedly high placebo response rate. Sequential parallel comparison design (SPCD) can be used to address this problem. However, the SPCD has not yet been discussed in relation to clinical trials with coprimary endpoints. In this article, our aim was to develop a hypothesis‐testing method and a method for calculating the corresponding sample size for the SPCD with two coprimary endpoints. In a simulation, we show that the proposed hypothesis‐testing method achieves the nominal type I error rate and power and that the proposed sample size calculation method has adequate power accuracy. In addition, the usefulness of our methods is confirmed by returning to an SPCD trial with a single primary endpoint of Alzheimer disease‐related agitation.