One parent or two? The intertwining of American marriage and fertility patterns

Marriage and fertility in the United States have become less firmly entwined as more women bear children without marrying and more couples with children divorce. Today a sizeable number of children are expected to spend a portion of their childhood in one-parent households. Despite the trends in illegitimacy and divorce, the actual effect of out-of-wedlock childbearing on the living arrangements of children has not been fully explicated. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle III, this paper estimates the probability that children aged 0–13 in 1982 are living in two-parent households, controlling for their mothers' marital statuses at their births. We find that marital status at birth is an important predictor of household structure at later ages for both white and black populations; however, the childhood environment is actually quite elastic as women marry, divorce, remarry, and redivorce.     

The Salience of Perceived Societal Conflict in Europe: A 27 Country Study on the Development of a Measure for Generalized Conflict Thinking

Social Indicators Research - Over the last two decades, European countries have struggled with several crises (e.g., the Great Recession, the refugee crisis) which had a tremendous impact on (some)...     

Bayesian variable selection approach to a Bernstein polynomial regression model with stochastic constraints

This paper provides a Bayesian estimation procedure for monotone regression models incorporating the monotone trend constraint subject to uncertainty. For monotone regression modeling with stochastic restrictions, we propose a Bayesian Bernstein polynomial regression model using two-stage hierarchical prior distributions based on a family of rectangle-screened multivariate Gaussian distributions extended from the work of Gurtis and Ghosh [7 S.M. Curtis and S.K. Ghosh, A variable selection approach to monotonic regression with Bernstein polynomials, J. Appl. Stat. 38 (2011), pp. 961–976. doi: 10.1080/02664761003692423[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. This approach reflects the uncertainty about the prior constraint, and thus proposes a regression model subject to monotone restriction with uncertainty. Based on the proposed model, we derive the posterior distributions for unknown parameters and present numerical schemes to generate posterior samples. We show the empirical performance of the proposed model based on synthetic data and real data applications and compare the performance to the Bernstein polynomial regression model of Curtis and Ghosh [7 S.M. Curtis and S.K. Ghosh, A variable selection approach to monotonic regression with Bernstein polynomials, J. Appl. Stat. 38 (2011), pp. 961–976. doi: 10.1080/02664761003692423[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] for the shape restriction with certainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method that incorporates the uncertainty of the monotone trend and automatically adapts the regression function to the monotonicity, through empirical analysis with synthetic data and real data applications.     

Engaging Children in Meaningful Charity: Opening-up the Spaces within Which Children Learn to Give

This paper presents qualitative evidence from an in-depth, participative action research project with 150 children aged 4–8 years old, exploring their experiences, perceptions and preferences regarding charitable giving. Most children positively engage in charitable giving through home, school and their community; however, less than 20% are aware of the cause area they are being asked to support, and most have little decision-making in their giving. Children’s willingness to engage increases when they critically examine the cause area and are facilitated to lead on giving decisions, often resulting in increased and sustained efforts to support cause areas that matter to them.     

Effects of variations in water quantity and quality in the structure and functions of invertebrates’ community of a Mediterranean urban stream

Urban Ecosystems - Urban streams provide important ecosystem services to cities’ population, from the maintenance of urban biodiversity, temperature, humidity and air quality to improving...     

Inter‐country wage differences in the European Union

This article investigates the determinants of wage gaps between European Union countries along the wage distribution, applying the methodology proposed by Firpo, Fortin and Lemieux (2009) and Fortin, Lemieux and Firpo (2011). The authors conclude that both wage structure and composition effects contribute to explaining wage differentials, but that the wage structure effect is more important. This latter effect would appear to derive from differences between unknown factors, while the composition effect can largely be explained by differences in the following areas: education, proportion of workers with supervisory responsibilities, occupational structure, and, to a lesser extent, industrial structure.     

‘This is Not Just About History…’ Addressing the Disconnect in Historic (Non‐Recent) Child Abuse Investigations

• Historic (non‐recent) child abuse investigations need to consider the effects of investigative processes on victims and survivors.
• Such investigations include those undertaken by the police and by the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).
• Victim and survivor accounts need to be taken seriously and investigated thoroughly in order for victims/survivors not to feel let down by, and disconnected from, criminal justice and IICSA processes.

‘Historic (non‐recent) child abuse investigations need to consider the effects of investigative processes on victims and survivors’

In response to the then chancellor George Osborne's announcement in 2014 that the UK government would set up an independent inquiry into the handling of historic child abuse cases, then shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper made a statement that highlighted:

‘This is not just about history, this is about the need for proper strong systems of child protection for the future, so that we get both justice for victims in the past but also a system that is strong enough to protect young people going forward.’ (The Guardian, 2014 )

The government held good to its promise and set up the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA) ( https://www.iicsa.org.uk ) in 2014, announced by then home secretary Theresa May. Its objectives would not only be to investigate claims of a cover‐up of an alleged paedophile ring said to have operated in Westminster in the 1980s, but also to investigate broader institutional failures. Today, the IICSA aims to ‘examine the extent to which institutions and organisations in England and Wales have taken seriously their responsibility to protect children’, and to examine allegations of child sexual abuse involving ‘well known people’, that is, those in the media, politics and other areas of public life (see https:// www.iicsa.org.uk ). Its remit also includes collating testimonies from child abuse victims and survivors through its Truth Project (via private interviews and in writing) (IICSA, 2017 ). But for the victims/survivors of abuse, it is at this intersection – between holding to account both public and private institutions over child abuse, and listening to and believing victims – where a disconnect occurs, that is, between past and present; between the abuse itself and the reporting process; and between expectation and outcomes of the investigative process.

‘For the victims/survivors of abuse… a disconnect occurs… between the abuse itself and the reporting process’

This short report considers progress to date on the IICSA drawing on evidence from the inquiry itself, from press reports and from the author's personal experience of reporting historic abuse to the police and to the IICSA's Truth Project.

‘Considers progress to date on the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA)’

A ‘Legacy’ of Failures

In August 2016, after Theresa May launched the ‘new‐look’ inquiry in 2015 with new statutory powers, its chair, Dame Lowell Goddard, resigned. In her resignation statement, Goddard cited family reasons for going but perhaps more tellingly, the fact that the inquiry was ‘not an easy task, let alone one of the magnitude of this’, she added, ‘Compounding the many difficulties was its legacy of failure which has been very hard to shake off’ (BBC News, 2016a ). And it is some legacy. In its first year, the IICSA saw two of its chairs, Baroness Butler‐Sloss and Dame Fiona Woolf, step down over questions about their links to key establishment figures prominent in the 1980s. Since 2014, a number of lawyers supporting the inquiry have also either resigned or been dismissed. Historic or non‐recent child abuse has been at the centre of public, political and media debate since allegations against TV presenter and DJ Jimmy Savile emerged in 2011. This led to the setting up of Operation Yewtree in 2012 (and, down the line, to the IICSA), now just one of many separate similar operations currently being run by police forces across the country. Indeed, such is the scale of the problem that there is now a central hub – Operation Hydrant – to oversee all of these separate police investigations.

‘[Since Savile] historic or non‐recent child abuse has been at the centre of public, political and media debate’

Without a doubt, some of these have been successful in bringing to justice well known figures and ‘celebrities’ such as Rolf Harris, Stuart Hall and Paul Gadd (Gary Glitter). But other investigations have failed to establish the extent of child abuse allegations said to have been committed and subsequently covered up at Westminster, at Dolphin Square in Pimlico (Operation Midland), Elm Guest House in London (Operation Athabasca) and others, some of which have closed and others still being investigated by the police, a number of them linked to prominent public and political figures. At the same time, the police themselves are also under scrutiny as part of the IICSA and the Independent Police Complaints Commission is currently investigating 187 claims of police and establishment cover‐ups involving 18 forces (The Independent, 2016 ).