KF-自证法:可知预言悖论的统一解

对2016年提出的意外考试悖论的“自证”诊断及相应解决方案的明显漏洞,提出新的解决方案,让最终的方法可应用于预言悖论的其他变种,以显示它是一个普遍的解决方案.其他的方法都被证明必须沿着这条路径进行,这包括索伦森的条件句盲点策略以及威廉姆森的KK-否定策略.     

Subsidiary Entrepreneurship and Entrepreneurial Opportunity: An Institutional Perspective

A subsidiary's ability to identify opportunities in the host country and to subsequently exploit these opportunities could create competitive advantages for the Multinational Corporation. While research on subsidiary entrepreneurship has focused primarily on subsidiary-specific resources and capabilities, as well as environmental factors, the type of opportunities that the subsidiaries may find in the host environment has been underexplored. Drawing on the subsidiary entrepreneurship literature, institutional perspectives, and entrepreneurship research, this paper suggests that subsidiaries embedded in institutional contexts that are different from those of their home country have unique advantages that enable the identification of entrepreneurial opportunities. Accordingly, a theoretical framework is proposed, based on contingency perspectives on the different views of entrepreneurial opportunities in relation to business processes in the host country's institutional environment, vis-a-vis uncertainty levels and legitimacy requirements. In addition, appropriate strategic approaches are suggested, through which subsidiaries can exploit these entrepreneurial opportunities.     

Managing Cost Salience and Procrastination in Projects: Compensation and Team Composition

The rising trend of projects with high‐skilled and autonomous contributors increasingly exposes managers to the risk of idiosyncratic individual behaviors. In this article, we examine the effects of an important behavioral factor, an individual's cost salience. Cost salience leads individuals to perceive the cost of immediate effort to be larger than the cost of future effort. This leads to procrastination in early stages and back‐loaded effort over the course of the project. We model the problem confronting the manager of a project whose quality is adversely impacted by such distortion of individual effort over time. Complementary to prior works focused on the planning and scheduling tasks of project management in the absence of human behavior, we find that managers should reward contributions made in earlier stages of a project. Our analysis also yields interesting insights on the project team performance: teams with diverse levels of cost salience will perform better than homogeneous teams. We also address another important facet of team composition, namely, the choice between stable and fluid teams, and find that the practice of creating fluid teams might have previously unrecognized benefits when behavioral aspects of projects are considered. We conclude with insights and organizational implications for project managers.     

An Integrated Approach to Oversight Assessment for Emerging Technologies

Analysis of oversight systems is often conducted from a single disciplinary perspective and by using a limited set of criteria for evaluation. In this article, we develop an approach that blends risk analysis, social science, public administration, legal, public policy, and ethical perspectives to develop a broad set of criteria for assessing oversight systems. Multiple methods, including historical analysis, expert elicitation, and behavioral consensus, were employed to develop multidisciplinary criteria for evaluating oversight of emerging technologies. Sixty‐six initial criteria were identified from extensive literature reviews and input from our Working Group. Criteria were placed in four categories reflecting the development, attributes, evolution, and outcomes of oversight systems. Expert elicitation, consensus methods, and multidisciplinary review of the literature were used to refine a condensed, operative set of criteria. Twenty‐eight criteria resulted spanning four categories: seven development criteria, 15 attribute criteria, five outcome criteria, and one evolution criterion. These criteria illuminate how oversight systems develop, operate, change, and affect society. We term our approach “integrated oversight assessment” and propose its use as a tool for analyzing relationships among features, outcomes, and tradeoffs of oversight systems. Comparisons among historical case studies of oversight using a consistent set of criteria should result in defensible and evidence‐supported lessons to guide the development of oversight systems for emerging technologies, such as nanotechnology.     

Strategies to Improve the World Food Programme's Revenue Mobilisation and Procurement Practices

Currently, a vast majority of WFP food procurement is executed through spot markets, which exposes it to substantial commodity and transport price risk as well as significant delays in delivery. The WFP also has limited flexibility owing to unpredictable revenue mobilisation, partly driven by restricted donor contributions. However, a significant portion of its operations are fairly predictable – both in terms of countries and delivery volumes. There are several types of derivatives contracts available at commodities exchanges that can facilitate strategic hedging. Greater commitments of untied cash donations from the US and other major donors can give the WFP significant operational flexibility to execute prudent financial management operations without damaging local food markets.     

Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?

This study investigates the stability of the relationship among M3 money, output, and prices. The empirical results derived from conventional stability tests, cointegration and error correction models and a test for structural break in a cointegrating vector provide evidence for the existence of a fairly stable relationship among these variables during 1951–1952 to 2000–2001. The evidence suggests that the growth of M3 money can be used as one of the potential indicators of future movement in prices within the multiple indicators framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, evidence regarding the short run dynamic adjustment among these variables indicates that active monetary policy to stabilize short run fluctuation in prices must be handled with caution, as it would amplify rather than moderate price fluctuations in the long run.     

Should countries be more like shopping malls? A proposal for Service Performance Guarantees

Through an examination of existing guarantee mechanisms, this article sets out and explains a proposal for the adoption of Service Performance Guarantees (SPGs) by developing countries working to attract foreign investment. The proposed approach is to offer investing firms the opportunity to purchase insurance against a wider range of risks than is currently possible, with highly visible payouts if service delivery standards fall short of those expected from the programme. The SPG contracts would be covered by a “domestic reserve” funded from premiums paid in by the firms and backed up by a further guarantee issued by a development partner. This approach restructures accountability to create a partnership of donors and recipient governments, accountable to their investor clients.