Monitoring the parameter changes in general ARIMA time series models

We propose methods for monitoring the residuals of a fitted ARIMA or an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model in order to detect changes of the parameters in that model. We extend the procedures of Box & Ramirez (1992) and Ramirez (1992) and allow the differencing parameter, d to be fractional or integer. Test statistics are approximated by Wiener processes. We carry out simulations and also apply our method to several real time series. The results show that our method is effective for monitoring all parameters in ARFIMA models.     

Teen Childbearing and Depression: Do Pregnancy Attitudes Matter?

The relationship between teen childbearing and depression has been extensively studied; however, little is known about how young women's own attitudes toward becoming pregnant shape this association. This study used data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to investigate whether the relationship between teen childbearing and adult depression is moderated by adolescent attitudes toward becoming pregnant. The results showed that although, on average, women who had first births between ages 16 and 19 experienced no more depressive symptoms in adulthood than women who had first births at age 20 or older, the relationship between teen childbearing and adult depression varied significantly based on adolescent pregnancy attitudes. When they had negative adolescent attitudes toward getting pregnant, teen mothers had similar levels of depression as adult mothers, but when they had positive adolescent pregnancy attitudes, teen mothers actually had fewer depressive symptoms than women with adult first births.     

An Evaluation of a Child Guidance Clinic

An attempt is made to evaluate the effectiveness of a child guidance clinic. The outcome of the clinic's intervention was found to vary according to the nature of the presenting problem and the social class of the client. The categories of problems where treatment was ineffective are discussed in detail.     

The use of a hand-held microcomputer in the collection of physiological,subjective and behavioral data in ecologically valid gambling settings

A small, hand-held micro-computer was linked with telemetry equipment to permit simultaneous collection of heart rate, subjective ratings, and behavioral/environmental events. The two objectives satisfied by the system were unobtrusiveness in real-life gambling settings and capacity to down-load data directly to a host computer.This project is supported by the Australian Research Scheme grant no. A 284157490 I. Receiver and transmitters loaned by the Department of Zoology, ANU, and technical advice from Jim Bishop and Lyle Carpenter.     

Childhood Sexual Abuse,Adult Psychiatric Morbidity,and Criminal Outcomes in Women Assessed by Medium Secure Forensic Service

There is little literature on childhood sexual abuse in women seen by forensic services. A cohort of 225 cases of women seen by forensic services in a medium secure unit in the UK were examined, and childhood sexual abuse and non–childhood sexual abuse cases were compared. Over half the sample had a history of childhood sexual abuse, and 5.6% of this group were victims of a subsequent sexual assault in adulthood. The perpetrators were all male. The majority of intrafamilial cases resulted in victims being raised in environments outside the family home. Childhood sexual abuse was associated with later relationship, educational, and occupational difficulties. Significant associations were also seen with personality disorder, self-harm, and substance misuse. Treating services need to recognize the potential importance of childhood sexual abuse in their models of care given the complexity of the association between childhood sexual abuse and psychosocial needs and its impact on successful rehabilitation.     

A Model for Assessing the Impact of Combat-Related Deployments on U.S. Army Spouses

Cognitive appraisal and coping theory were used to examine parental stress, family stress, and personal stress among wives of deployed soldiers. A random sample of wives of U.S. Army personnel deployed to Iraq provided evidence that length of deployment, rank of deployed soldier, and number of previous deployments, impacted these wives during deployments. Results suggest that rank of deployed soldiers and number of deployments influenced the spouse's perception of family stress; whereas rank and length of the deployment influenced her experience of parental stress. All three factors served as indicators of the personal stress experienced during deployments by these wives.     

Lone Parents and Welfare‐to‐Work in England: A Spatial Analysis of Outcomes and Drivers

Mirroring changes across nations of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, recent UK governments have redrawn lone parents' entitlement to social assistance benefits ever tighter around participation in the labour market. A radical shift since 2008 has been the gradual transfer of most non‐employed lone parents into the ‘activating’ Jobseekers' Allowance (JSA) regime. The enhanced conditionality requirements of this JSA regime have been justified by both paternalistic and contractualist arguments but, however justified, are built on the premise that behavioural factors drive lone parent employment outcomes, a view made increasingly forcefully under the current Coalition government. This article uses up‐to‐date administrative data at local authority level across England to provide a geographical perspective into the sub‐national changes in lone parent employment outcomes since the transfer to JSA from 2008, as well as the relevant importance of the alternative structural and behavioural accounts to these outcomes. The findings suggest that the JSA transfer has increased lone parent employment, that structural rather than behavioural drivers are more relevant causal factors and that there is good reason to be concerned about the effect of the reforms on the well‐being of lone parents and their children.     

Women's groups and individual entrepreneurs: a Ugandan case study

This study is based on interviews conducted among 8 women's income-generating groups and 12 individual women entrepreneurs in 15 villages in Masaka district, Uganda. The Baganda are the main tribe in the study villages. The study evaluates the economic achievement, objectives, and social characteristics of the groups. Groups ranged in size from 9-20 members. All had functioned for 3-5 years. A regular membership fee was paid through the sale of agricultural produce. Groups met at least every 2 weeks. This study revealed that the individual goals were to increase individual wealth, while the stated group goals were to invest in the community. Members considered the groups as useful in providing an easy way to raise capital. Most members considered financial status as a criterion for group membership. Elderly women tended to join social and handicraft groups. The women's group members tended to be friends before the establishment of the group and tended to be currently married to men residing in the area. Of the 12 women entrepreneurs, only 5 were currently married. All 12 women entrepreneurs had considerable initiative. The 12 women and the women's group members derived income from two or more sources: agricultural projects, animal husbandry, craft production, alcohol production and sale, or other activities. Study findings indicate that decisions were often delayed or avoided in order to preserve social cohesion. In a market-oriented enterprise, quick response time is needed and the bureaucratic dynamics would hinder some agricultural ventures. The poorest women experienced barriers to group membership. Women entrepreneurs were more successful than group women.     

Foreword

This article charts the history of MuseumAfrica (formerly the Africana Museum) from its founding vision to the present. Taking the museum’s current abysmal reputation as its starting point, it seeks to fill the void in academic and popular thought that encompasses the institution. Sketching the original mandate under which it was created before focusing on the museum’s work from 1935 to the near present, it explores the ways in which the museum interacted with and impacted the world outside its doors. Paying particular attention to the museum’s engagement with liberal and illiberal forces for change, it presents the museum as something other than the monument impervious to change that it is often assumed to be. Categorising the museum as an archive, this article argues in favour of the museum’s enduring relevance in the post‐colonial order.     

Constructing the Nature Experience: A Semiotic Examination of Signs on the Trail

This paper is an exploratory examination of the role of signs perceived along nature trails in parks and wooded settings and the ways in which they shape the nature experience for individuals. Literature was examined to define what it means to experience nature, the values and meanings people place on nature, hikers’ expectations, and tourism and park management practices. Sign objects, their underlying meanings, and the interpretation of signs along the trail were examined in the context of the existing theory based on semiotics, particularly the work of Peirce. Through a series of hikes, we found that signs contribute to the satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and meaning making in outdoor environments. Areas for further investigation are discussed.