Moderate Deviations for Bayes Posteriors

Let ( X_k ) k be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in a set , and consider the problem of estimating the law of X₁ in a Bayesian framework. We prove, under mild conditions on the prior, that the sequence of posterior distributions satisfies a moderate deviation principle.     

构建电子政务系统的研究

文章介绍了电子政务的内涵及其基本内容 ,分析了实施电子政务的意义 ,指出了实施电子政务的基本原则 ,提出了构建电子政务系统的网络模型和层次模型。     

涡轮叶片尾缘针肋的换热研究

以涡轮叶片尾缘中针肋通道的换热为研究对象，讨论并计算出了一定条件下获得最大针肋通道换热量时针肋的形状曲线和换热优势，系统分析了这种拥有最佳形状曲线针肋的通道散热量随针肋物性参数及几何特征变化的规律。     

A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

1 Introduction Shallow tundra lakes are one of the dominating landscape features in the Alaskan Arctic. They typically cover 20% of the total area of the North Slope of Alaska, and up to about 40% in the coastal plain [1,2]. Many lakes are, in their entirety or in part, shallower than the maximum annual ice thickness, consequently, some ice freezes completely to the lake bottom, nevertheless, large areas of water are deeper than the maximum ice thickness and the ice remains afloat througho…     

民族大迁移造就了北京城

民族大迁移 ,尤其是少数民族大迁移造就了北京城。辽、金、元、明、清五朝 ,均有民族大迁移。尤其是明清两朝 ,均将北京的前朝居民迁移出去 ,本族居民迁移进来。在今天的北京 ,辽代契丹人留下了天宁寺塔 ,金代女真人遗下金太液池的一汪清水 ,元代蒙古人的胡同和六海水系还在沿用 ,明代汉族工匠建成了宫殿、长城和十三陵 ,清代精美的皇家园林和王府建筑后人至今无法企及。     

入世后县域经济发展对策初探

县域经济是整个国民经济的基础.加入世贸组织,既给县域经济的发展带来了难得的发展机遇,又使其面临着严峻的挑战.我们对此应积极进取,沉着应对,结合本地区实际,理出可行思路,拿出过硬措施,趣利避害,走出具有本区域经济发展特色之路来.     

THE ANSWERING MACHINE POSES MANY QUESTIONS FOR TELEPHONE SURVEY RESEARCHERS

The proliferation of the telephone answering machine raisesa number of questions about the continued efficiency of thetelephone as a data-gathering mechanism. The most critical ofthese is what effect the use of these machines might have onestablishing contact with potential respondents. If individualsroutinely use these machines to screen calls, then their accessibilityto telephone survey researchers will be restricted. A secondquestion is the degree to which respondents who own answeringmachines and are reachable are likely to participate in a survey.A third question is the extent to which the incidence of theanswering machine as a response disposition might vary by thetime of calling and the respondent's place of residence. Thefindings of this study, based on a nationwide survey, pointto a significant proportion of answering machine owners beingreachable and willing to participate. Furthermore, the answeringmachine appears to be in use more on weekends than on weekdayevenings and in more urbanized areas than in areas with fewerinhabitants.     

论吸引民间资本发展环保产业的重要性及途径

我国的环保产业历经 2 0余年的发展已初步具有一定规模 ,但与产业自身和经济发展的需要仍有较大差距 ,资金缺乏正是其中最重要的原因之一。因此新的投融资机制和渠道的建立 ,特别是吸引民间资本的参与 ,就成为发展我国环保产业的关键     

Race and gender as bases of class fractions and their effects on earnings

Maints auteurs ont affirmé que la race et le sexe repreésentent des bases de fractions de classe en ce sens que leur construction sociale permet à des segments d'une classe de se constituer à partir de caractéristiques liées à la race et au sexe. Cependant, les études ernpiriques antérieures tendent à considérer seulernent la race et le sexe comme des facteurs de fractionnernent au sein de la classe ouvrière seulement. À l'aide des données du recensement de 1986, cette communication analyse lea effets interactifs de la race et du sexe sur le revenu considéré comme facteur de fractionnement des classes. Les recherches de l'auteur indiquent que les effets produits par le groupement par race et par sexe sont inégaux en ce qui trait au revenu, les hommes gagnant davantage que les femmes tout en étant davantage ‘fractionnés’ par le revenu que les femmes. Lorsqu'on fait abstraction des différences de revenu entre classes, la race et le sexe demeurent des facteurs explicatifs importants du niveau de revenu, bien que leurs effets soient plus marqués chez les cadres, les professionnels et les ouvriers. L'écart entre les sexes est plus prononcé, mais la race demeure importante comme facteur de fractionnement au niveau des revenus des homrnes, měme après correction pour tenir cornpte d'autres variables. L'auteur affirme que l'assimilation des relations de sexe et de race aux relations entre classes est insatisfaisante et qu'il existe de sérieuses considérations théoriques pour considérer que les causes des inégalités entre les sexes et les races se trouvent non seulement à l'intérieur du domaine de la production, mais également à l'extérieur de celui-ci. The literature has argued that race and gender are bases of class fractions in that their social construction enables segments of a class to be constituted on racialized and gender-linked characteristics. However, previous empirical works tend to consider race or gender as fractionalizing the working class only. Using the 1986 Census data, this paper analyses the interactive effects of race and gender on earnings as grounds of fractionalizing classes. The findings indicate that race and gender groupings produce unequal effects on earnings: males have an income advantage over females, but race fractionalizes the earnings of men to a greater extent than for women. When inter-class differences in earnings are removed, race and gender remain important in explaining earnings, although their effects are stronger among the managerial, the professsional, and the working class. The gender gap is more pronounced, but race remains important in fractionalizing the earnings of men even after controlling for other variables. The paper argues that it is insufficient to subsume gender and race relations under class relations, and that there are compelling theoretical grounds to consider gender and race inequality as having roots both within and outside the sphere of production.     

Social Capital, Resource Mobilization and Origins of the Civil Rights Movement

Abstract  This article critiques the contradictory claims of Robert Putnam and Aldon Morris in relation to the American civil rights movement. Putnam identifies the South as the American region most lacking in social capital, and argues more generally that the 1960s marked a watershed beyond which social capital in the United States declined in all regions. Morris identifies the indigenous resources of southern African American communities as fundamental to the civil rights movement's emergence in the late 1950s and sees the social networks and cultural assets of the African American church in particular as central to the movement. The article disputes Putnam's negative judgment of the South by highlighting the role played by various types of social capital in the movement's launch. It also challenges Morris's over-emphasis on the ability of charismatic, black church leadership to deliver mass support and re-affirms the role played by female lay figures, such as beauticians.