CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Into the IRIS: a model for analyzing identity dynamics in conflict

I propose a lens model for understanding how core identities (ethnic, sectarian, racial or national) are affected by past interactions and narratives increasing the chances of the outbreak of violent conflict. The model can be used to show how core identities are polarized during conflict escalation and how they might de-polarize during periods of de-escalation and conflict resolution, leading to potential transformation of core identities in post-conflict situations. Northern Ireland will be used to illustrate the Integrated Relational Identity Structure model, showing how conflicting identities have changed, or not, as a result of history, the conflict and the peace process.     

A theory of unanimous jury voting with an ambiguous likelihood

Theory and Decision - We examine collective decision-making in a jury voting game under the unanimity rule when voters have ambiguous beliefs. Unlike in existing studies (Ellis in Theoretical...     

Context Matters: Differential Effects of Discrimination by Environmental Context on Depressive Symptoms Among College Students of Color

Clinical Social Work Journal - Experiences with more subtle racism – which have been called microaggressions – have a host of negative effects on health, mental health, educational...     

Neoconservatism,bohemia and the moral economy of neoliberalism

This paper is concerned with the moral economy of neoliberalism. The goal is to show the development of this moral economy through the discourse of neoconservatism. The research pays particular attention to the incorporation of aspects of bohemia in the construction of this moral economy. The paper charts the development of the neoconservative moral critique of political modernity in the second half of the twentieth century by drawing on the leading neoconservative figures, Norman Podhoretz and Irving Kristol. The first part of this research makes clear the homology between the neoconservative critique of bohemia and excessive capitalism, where both are accused of nihilism as part of the moral abyss of liberal modernity. The second part of this research shows how, through the work of George Gilder, neoconservatives re-imagined a moral economy for capitalism that overcame the apparent nihilism whilst retaining the unrestrained nature of accumulation. Through a celebration of the heroic entrepreneur, neoliberalism’s moral economy is based upon a celebration of risk, an embrace of chance and an overturning of bourgeois morality. Neoliberalism incorporates the bohemian critique of bourgeois capitalism into a critique of the social democratic welfare state which, by prioritising safety over pleasure and excess, is deemed to be both incapable of offering spiritual satisfaction as well as being ill suited to a post-Fordist economy. The flexible nature of bohemia that rebelled against organised strictures of bourgeois morality and Fordist organisation is welcomed by the neoliberal turn. The spiritual satisfaction of life on the edge offered to the neoliberal subject acts as a form seduction and mirrors the creative freedom offered through bohemia. Neoliberalism’s gift, however, comes at a price, the edgy existence is coupled with removal of social safety nets and increasing insecurity and precariatisation.     

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life‐Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA‐MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi‐attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary.