CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Group therapists' countertransference reactions to multiple deaths from aids

Group therapists for those with HIV Related Diseases are becoming the “professional” survivors of this world-wide epidemic. From their experiences we may learn a great deal more about the effects of multiple deaths on mental health care professionals. As therapists they are constantly eliciting and listening to the fears, hopes, agonies and terrors of those with this disease. They become the bereaved. Witnesses to the deaths of many of their group members, they struggle with a wide range of emotional responses while at the same time assisting surviving group members in their struggle to live with these deaths. Mourning reactions and countertransference phenomena are in abundance as these therapists grapple with these group processes. This article identifies and examines these therapists' responses by focusing on clinical illustrations drawn from their bi-weekly supervision sessions.