A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Optimum stratification with two variates

For the 2×2 rectilinear stratification of a bivariate normal distribution with proportional and optimum allocation the dependence of the objective function z(x₁;y₁) on the coefficient of correlation ρ and the sampling fraction q=n/N is investigated. With proportional allocation for great values of ρ (but already for q=0) a so-called ρ-effect arises, which results in a saddle-point of z as “optimum” stratification point in the center of gravity of the distribution and two additional minima. With optimum allocation first for smaller values of q also the ρ-effect arises; for grater values of q a so-called q-effect is superposed, which results in a multitude of minima, saddle-points and maxima of z. All these points satisfy the generalized conditions of Dalenius, but for practical use only the global minimum is of interest.