Quantifying Water Pathogen Risk in an Epidemiological Framework

Traditionally, microbial risk assessors have used point estimates to evaluate the probability that an individual will become infected. We developed a quantitative approach that shifts the risk characterization perspective from point estimate to distributional estimate, and from individual to population. To this end, we first designed and implemented a dynamic model that tracks traditional epidemiological variables such as the number of susceptible, infected, diseased, and immune, and environmental variables such as pathogen density. Second, we used a simulation methodology that explicitly acknowledges the uncertainty and variability associated with the data. Specifically, the approach consists of assigning probability distributions to each parameter, sampling from these distributions for Monte Carlo simulations, and using a binary classification to assess the output of each simulation. A case study is presented that explores the uncertainties in assessing the risk of giardiasis when swimming in a recreational impoundment using reclaimed water. Using literature-based information to assign parameters ranges, our analysis demonstrated that the parameter describing the shedding of pathogens by infected swimmers was the factor that contributed most to the uncertainty in risk. The importance of other parameters was dependent on reducing the a priori range of this shedding parameter. By constraining the shedding parameter to its lower subrange, treatment efficiency was the parameter most important in predicting whether a simulation resulted in prevalences above or below non outbreak levels. Whereas parameters associated with human exposure were important when the shedding parameter was constrained to a higher subrange. This Monte Carlo simulation technique identified conditions in which outbreaks and/or nonoutbreaks are likely and identified the parameters that most contributed to the uncertainty associated with a risk prediction.     

Examining Patterns of Food Bank Use Over Twenty-Five Years in Vancouver,Canada

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Food banks have grown substantially in Canada since the 1980s but little is known about patterns or predictors of...     

A Simulation Model for Occupational Tuberculosis Transmission

A simulation model of tuberculosis (TB) transmission among hospital employees is described. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 workers was divided into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The number of TB patients admitted daily was treated as a Poisson random variable. A patient imparted a daily infection risk that was identical for all workers within a risk group but that varied between risk groups. In some scenarios, infected employees were assigned a daily risk of developing TB disease. If disease developed, the individual remained on the job for 3 calendar weeks and imparted a substantial infection risk to 25 close contacts. Simulations were run over 5-year intervals. Cumulative infection incidence increased over time and with more TB patients admitted. Given a scenario in which there were 600, 300, and 100 susceptibles in the low-, medium-, and high risk groups, respectively, 50 TB patients admitted annually and accounting for disease among infected employees, at 5 years there were approximately 100 primary infections (due to infection by patients), 40 secondary infections (due to infection by diseased coworkers), five primary disease cases, and two secondary disease cases. The input parameter values and simulation outcomes were reasonably consistent with the sparse information reported in the literature.     

Are There Early Risk Markers for Pedophilia? A Nationwide Case-Control Study of Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offenders

Although prior research suggests associations between parental characteristics and later sexual offending in offspring, possible links between early pregnancy-related factors and sexual offending remain unclear. Early risk markers unique to sexual offending, however, may be more prominent among sexual offenders with atypical sexual interests, such as individuals involved with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM; also referred to as child pornography). We examined the prospective association between parental and pregnancy-related risk markers and a behavioral indicator of pedophilic interest, CSEM offending. All 655 men born in Sweden and convicted of CSEM offending between 1988 to 2009 were matched 1:5 on sex, birth year, and county of birth in Sweden to 3,928 controls without sexual or nonsexual violent convictions. Paternal age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.1, 1.7]), parental education (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI [0.6, 0.9]), parental violent criminality (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI [2.2, 3.8]), number of older brothers (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI [0.6, 0.9] per brother), and congenital malformations (AOR = 1.7, 95% CI [1.2, 2.4]) all independently predicted CSEM convictions. This large-scale, nationwide study suggests parental risk markers for CSEM offending. We did not, however, find convincing evidence for pregnancy-related risk markers, with the exception of congenital malformations and having fewer older brothers.     

Visual Attention Patterns Differ in Gynephilic and Androphilic Men and Women Depending on Age and Gender of Targets

Visual attention patterns measured with eye-tracking techniques provide indirect clues about sexual response. This study aimed to test the category specificity of sexual responses to stimuli varying in gender and age by evaluating both early and late attention of gynephilic and androphilic men and women. We simultaneously presented sexually preferred and nonpreferred stimuli and measured time to first fixation and total duration of fixation on four areas of interest: entire body, then face, chest, and pelvis. Androphilic women’s early attention patterns were nonspecific, whereas gynephilic women and both groups of men showed a category-specific pattern for the entire body. In contrast, all groups showed gender-specific patterns of late attention for all areas of interest. We also found support for age specificity of early and late visual attention in all four groups, with greater attention to adult than child stimuli. This study supports the usefulness of a competing stimulus eye-tracking paradigm as a method to examine gender specificity in gynephilic women and androphilic and gynephilic men, and as a measure of age specificity in gynephilic and androphilic men and women.     

Sample Size Allocation for Food Item Radiation Monitoring and Safety Inspection

The objective of this study is to identify a procedure for determining sample size allocation for food radiation inspections of more than one food item to minimize the potential risk to consumers of internal radiation exposure. We consider a simplified case of food radiation monitoring and safety inspection in which a risk manager is required to monitor two food items, milk and spinach, in a contaminated area. Three protocols for food radiation monitoring with different sample size allocations were assessed by simulating random sampling and inspections of milk and spinach in a conceptual monitoring site. Distributions of ¹³¹I and radiocesium concentrations were determined in reference to ¹³¹I and radiocesium concentrations detected in Fukushima prefecture, Japan, for March and April 2011. The results of the simulations suggested that a protocol that allocates sample size to milk and spinach based on the estimation of ¹³¹I and radiocesium concentrations using the apparent decay rate constants sequentially calculated from past monitoring data can most effectively minimize the potential risks of internal radiation exposure.     

Differences in Visual Attention Patterns to Sexually Mature and Immature Stimuli Between Heterosexual Sexual Offenders,Nonsexual Offenders,and Nonoffending Men

Men, whether gynephilic or androphilic, show both early and late attention toward adults and not toward children. We examined early and late visual attention to sexually mature versus immature stimuli in four groups of heterosexual men: sexual offenders against children (SOAC = 18), sexual offenders against adults (SOAA = 16), nonsexual offenders (NSO = 18), and nonoffending men (NOM = 19). We simultaneously presented adult and child stimuli and measured time to first fixation, number of first fixations, total duration of fixation, and fixation count to four areas of interest: entire body, then face, chest, and pelvis. We found a significant interaction where only SOAC tended to fixate more first times to child than to adult stimuli. Conversely, we found longer total duration of fixations for the bodies of adults compared to the bodies of children in all groups; however, in both the total duration of fixations and the fixation count for the whole body, but especially in the chest, SOAC tended to fixate longer and more often on child stimuli than the other two groups of offenders, but not longer or more often than NOM. This study adds to the limited research using eye-tracking techniques in samples of SOAC.