Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

Society without the social: the Spanish labour movement and the rise of the social, 1840–1880

Focusing on the Spanish case, this article addresses two fundamental questions: why were many unionized workers sceptical about state intervention in labour issues throughout the nineteenth century, and why did this attitude begin to change from the 1860s onwards? Its main thesis is that workers’ attitudes derived ultimately from different historical notions of ‘society’ that shaped their perceptions and experiences of labour relations and their attitude toward the role of the state. Thus, a notion of society as an aggregation of individuals shaped unionized Spanish workers’ hostility toward state intervention since the creation of the first unions in the 1840s. From the 1860s onward, a new conception of collective relations, namely ‘the social’, began to transform some workers’ expectations of the role of the state in labour conflicts. The main factor that explains this change, it is argued, lies in the relationship between the workers’ imaginary, their actions, and their expectations about these actions.     

Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

The study demonstrates the key role of expenditure policies in explaining fiscal developments during EMU in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries. It compares actual primary expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. Moreover, the implications for debt trends are calculated. Results show that all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies already before the crisis. Consequently, expenditure and debt paths were much higher compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Rule-based expenditure policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. An empirical analysis of the determinants of countries’ expenditure stance confirms the need for stronger fiscal rules and institutions in the euro area.     

Patterns of alcohol use and marijuana use among students at 2- and 4-year institutions

Objective: The objective of this study was to understand substance use patterns of alcohol, marijuana, and simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use among 2- and 4-year college students. Participants: Participants were 526 young adults aged 18–23 (n?=?355 4-year students; n?=?171 2-year students) recruited from February 2015 to January 2016 who were participating in a larger longitudinal study. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify past-month classes of alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use. Results: Among both 2- and 4-year students, a four-class solution yielded the best-fitting model, with 2-year classes tending to include greater marijuana use and less alcohol use and 4-year classes tending to include heavy alcohol use. Demographic characteristics were largely similar across classes. Conclusions: Classes of alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use differed by education status. Screening and prevention efforts for 4-year students may need to be tailored for the needs of 2-year students.     

Traversing gender,sexual orientation,and race-ethnicity: Sexual victimization in a population-based sample of older adults

This research examined the intersectionality of gender, sexual orientation, and race-ethnicity, and its impact on lifetime sexual victimization among a population-based sample of older adults. Data for this study came from the 2011–2014 waves of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. The final sample to be used for analysis included 8.862 individuals ages 50 years and over to examine whether and to what extent lesbian, gay, and bisexual older adults differ from heterosexual older adults in experiencing lifetime sexual victimization, and whether the effect of sexual orientation on experiencing lifetime sexual victimization differs across racial-ethnic groups. Logistic regression analysis revealed that lesbian women were 2.59 times more likely and bisexual women 2.15 times more likely both relative to heterosexual women to experience lifetime sexual victimization. When examining whether race-ethnicity imparts additional risk, the findings revealed that non-White heterosexual individuals were 29.6% less likely relative to White heterosexual individuals to experience lifetime sexual victimization, while non-White women, generally, were 2.29 times more likely relative to White men to experience lifetime sexual victimization. Our findings affirm the importance of the intersectionality of sexual orientation and gender when examining lifetime sexual victimization of older adults, adding to the emerging body of research that examines the complexities of older adult lives from multifaceted perspectives.     

Insights into the appropriate level of disaggregation for efficient time series model forecasting

This paper provides a potentially valuable insight on how to assess if the forecasts from an autoregressive moving average model based on aggregated data could be substantially improved through disaggregation. It is argued that, theoretically, the absence of moving average (MA) terms indicates that no forecasting efficiency improvements can be achieved through disaggregation. In practice, it is found that there is a strong correlation between the statistical significance of the MA component in the aggregate model and the magnitude of the forecast mean square error (MSE) decreases that can be achieved through disaggregation. That is, if a model includes significant MA terms, the forecast MSE improvements that may be gained from disaggregation could be substantial. Otherwise, they are more likely to be relatively small or non-existent.     

The Impact of Public Services Expenditure on the Spanish Income Distribution

This paper performs an assessment and imputation of the benefits produced to the individuals and households well-being by the public services provision. This analysis is very relevant in the current framework of economic crisis of the European economies. Although most of the papers in the literature compare countries, decentralization processes are included in this paper by accounting the effect of public expenditure on regional health care and education upon the levels of inequality and rates of poverty in each Spanish region. This case is relevant because of the high decentralization degree of the Spanish political structure and the persistent regional disparities. The results show a clear downward tendency in both phenomena following imputation, although education shows a greater impact. Furthermore, a decomposition, used in this context for the first time, of the effects shows the very relevant redistributive effect of this public expenditure.