Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Cross‐Cultural Perspectives on Career Assessment

The authors present an overview of the discussion and presentations that took place concerning techniques and assessment in educational and vocational guidance at the recent symposium International Perspectives on Career Development. Two topics were examined. The 1st focused on the theoretical foundations of and psychometric issues in career assessment. The 2nd focused on the practice of career assessment and the use of career measures, particularly in cultural contexts for which the measures were not originally developed.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

Art therapy as a modality for crisis intervention: Children express reactions to violence in their community

Ten days after the Symbionese Liberation Army's shoot out in Los Angeles in 1974, the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Department of Family Child Psychiatry, Thalians Community Mental Health Center, sent a crisis team of three psychotherapists to a school in the black community. The psychotherapists used an art therapy approach with a third grade classroom of 21 black children. The team's procedure helped the children ventilate their reactions to a frightening event which occurred in their neighborhood. This paper describes the art therapy techniques which were utilized, the children's vivid pictorial and verbal expressions accompanied by the psychological aspects of their responses.     

Theorizing Managerial Work: a Pragmatic Pluralist Approach to Interdisciplinary Research

Management research is especially open to the benefits of using insights from a variety of social science disciplines but it should not use these indiscriminately. A strategy of pragmatic pluralism is proposed as a way of ensuring that concepts taken from different social science paradigms or disciplines are drawn together into a single coherent perspective to shape the particular study to which they relate. This is illustrated with reference to an ethnographic study of managerial work carried out by the author.     

Point Estimates of Test Sensitivity and Specificity from Sample Means and Variances

In a wide variety of biomedical and clinical research studies, sample statistics from diagnostic marker measurements are presented as a means of distinguishing between two populations, such as with and without disease. Intuitively, a larger difference between the mean values of a marker for the two populations, and a smaller spread of values within each population, should lead to more reliable classification rules based on this marker. We formalize this intuitive notion by deriving practical, new, closed-form expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of three different discriminant tests defined in terms of the sample means and standard deviations of diagnostic marker measurements. The three discriminant tests evaluated are based, respectively, on the Euclidean distance and the Mahalanobis distance between means, and a likelihood ratio analysis. Expressions for the effects of measurement error are also presented. Our final expressions assume that the diagnostic markers follow independent normal distributions for the two populations, although it will be clear that other known distributions may be similarly analyzed. We then discuss applications drawn from the medical literature, although the formalism is clearly not restricted to that application.     

Self‐Construal,Career Decision Self‐Efficacy,and Perceived Barriers Predict Mexican American Women's Life Satisfaction

This study used the social cognitive theory of well‐being (SCTW; Lent, 2004 ) to examine the role of career decision self‐efficacy (CDSE), perceived educational barriers, and independent self‐construal on the life satisfaction of 176 Mexican American college women. A 3‐step hierarchical regression analysis indicated that independent self‐construal, CDSE, and fewer perceived educational barriers significantly predicted greater life satisfaction among Mexican American college women above and beyond the influence of socioeconomic status and generational status. These findings are consistent with SCTW and highlight the need for counselors and researchers to be aware of the role that self‐construal, CDSE, and perceived educational barriers can have on Mexican American women's life satisfaction. Implications for practice at the secondary‐school and university levels are discussed.     

Testing the validity of social capital measures in the study of information and communication technologies

Social capital has been considered a cause and consequence of various uses of new information and communication technologies (ICTs). However, there is a growing divergence between how social capital is commonly measured in the study of ICTs and how it is measured in other fields. This departure raises questions about the validity of some of the most widely cited studies of social capital and ICTs. We compare the Internet Social Capital Scales (ISCS) developed by Williams [2006. On and off the ’net: scales for social capital in an online era. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 11(2), 593–628. doi: 10.1111/j.1083-6101.2006.00029.x] – a series of psychometric scales commonly used to measure ‘social capital’ – to established, structural measures of social capital: name, position, and resource generators. Based on a survey of 880 undergraduate students (the population to which the ISCS has been most frequently administered), we find that, unlike structural measures, the ISCS does not distinguish between the distinct constructs of bonding and bridging social capital. The ISCS does not have convergent validity with structural measures of bonding or bridging social capital; it does not measure the same concept as structural measures. The ISCS conflates social capital with the related constructs of social support and attachment. The ISCS does not measure perceived or actual social capital. These findings raise concerns about the interpretations of existing studies of ‘social capital’ and ICTs that are based on the ISCS. Given the absence of measurement validity, we urge those studying social capital to abandon the ISCS in favor of alternative approaches.     

Rape Jokes

A curated selection of rape jokes taken from various Anglophone websites devoted to crowd-sourced offensive humor. Individual jokes may have been slightly modified to emphasize their poetic features.