North-South relations: Alternative policy simulations for the world economy in the 1980s

This article makes projections of the world economy in the North-South context for the period 1981–1990 using a latest global version of a macroeconomic model named FUGI-GNEM type IV 011–62. The model classifies the world into 62 countries/regions, where the North-South interdependence is incorporated into an integral part of the world economy through international economic linkages. Based on alternative simulations, the author presents future images of the North-South interdependent world economy through changes in economic growth rates, employment, wages, prices, money supply, interest rates, public finance, trade, capital movement, international balance of payments, foreign exchange rates, etc., in each country or region. The model forecasts that the real economic growth of the developing countries as a whole in the 1980s will likely be around 4%–7% annual rate according to alternative policy scenarios.     

Different demographic changes and patterns of trade in a Heckscher–Ohlin setting

We examine the effects of different aging speeds on international trade patterns in an open overlapping generations model. An expansion in life expectancy of a country does not necessarily make the country a net exporter of capital-intensive goods when fertility is endogenous, depending on the relative magnitudes of the positive Rybczynski effect of changes in the factor endowments and the negative effect from the consumption–savings choice on the relative price in the autarkic steady state. The incidence of gains from trade among generations after opening trade depends on whether the country becomes a net exporter or importer of capital-intensive goods.     

Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time‐to‐event outcome

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time‐to‐event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ ‐year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time‐to‐event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.     

日本木简资料的检索方法

至今为止,日本出土了几十万件七八世纪的木简。然而,就中日学术交流的现状而言,这些木简并未得到充分的利用。木简为汉字资料,如果仅局限于日本单方面研究,许多争论都不能得到有效的解决。为了便于中国学者有效研究并利用日本木简,本文将介绍一些高效实用的查找木简资料的方法。希望中国学者参与,解决相关争议问题,深化中日学术交流。     

Risk Assessment of the Carbon Nanotube Group

This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m³ was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold.     

Why Do Migrant Workers Intend to Extend Their Stay in Host Countries? The Case of Bangladeshi Workers in Malaysia's Manufacturing Sector

This article explores various factors resulting in temporary migrant workers' decisions to extend their stay in host countries by means of a case study of Bangladeshi factory workers in Malaysia. The employment mediation and passage fees paid to brokers and agents by Bangladeshi workers are very large compared with general living standards in Bangladesh. These large sums are increasing steadily as the number of persons desiring to work overseas increases. Malpractice by brokers and agents causes Bangladeshi workers to overestimate the amount of remittances they can send home, and hence they pay higher mediation and passage fees to brokers or agents. From a humanitarian point of view, the Government should strictly regulate the activities of agents and brokers and provide accurate information to those who plan to work in Malaysia. Statistical analysis suggests that the lower real remittances fall below the expected amounts, and the lower real wages are, compared with passage and mediation fees, the more will Bangladeshi workers wish to extend their stay. These facts imply that if future Bangladeshi migrant workers to Malaysia have the correct information about income levels and living expenses in Malaysia, and hence mediation and passage fees become cheaper, the likelihood of their intending to extend their stays will be much lower.     

Brain drain and technological relationship between skilled and unskilled labor: brain gain or brain loss?

This study analyzes the effect of an increase in the foreign skilled wage rate on the emigration and education decisions of individuals in the home economy. An increase in the foreign skilled wage rate encourages emigration of skilled workers out of the home country, while possible increase in the supply of skilled labor in the home depends on the technological relationship between skilled and unskilled labor in production. Although the average education level will rise when they are complements, the average education level may not necessarily be raised when they are substitutes.