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1.
Alexei D. Voskressenski 《Russian social science review : a journal of translations》2017,58(6):469-508
The coexistence of modernities of different structural types, with different historical foundations, and with different systemic modes of structural organization leads to the coexistence of traditional and new actors within a single spatiotemporal arrangement of international relations and to the differentiation of macroregions and nation-states in accordance with structural principles of organization. In the final analysis, the type of political access in specific nation-states and the combination of different types of political access in macroregions with different modes of structural organization and at different stages of historical development influence the developmental strategies of states and the character and priorities of their foreign policies; these in turn continue in significant measure to shape the processes that form the space of world politics. The identification of such interconnections makes it possible to analyze the influence of the type of sociopolitical access in states, coalitions of states, and global regions on the formative processes and character of the space of world politics and to engage in social engineering of the format of national and world space with a view to optimizing conditions for national development. Theoretical and practical conceptualization of the interconnection between external and internal processes, including their political component, will enable us to work out applied theories of competitive models of cooperative regional and national development and strategies for national modernization and development with adequate protection of national interests. 相似文献
2.
When simulating a dynamical system, the computation is actually of a spatially discretized system, because finite machine arithmetic replaces continuum state space. For chaotic dynamical systems, the discretized simulations often have collapsing effects, to a fixed point or to short cycles. Statistical properties of these phenomena can be modelled with random mappings with an absorbing centre. The model gives results which are very much in line with computational experiments. The effects are discussed with special reference to the family of mappings f
(x)=1-|1-2x|,x [0,1],1,<,,<,. Computer experiments show close agreement with predictions of the model. 相似文献
3.
Alexei Dmitrienko Z. Govindarajulu 《Journal of applied statistics》1998,25(4):517-523
We consider the problem of finding the probability of a sample mean falling above the (n - k)th-order statistic in a random sample of size n. Explicit expressions are obtained for the exponential distribution. Some applications that pertain to testing for outliers and goodness of fit are given. 相似文献
4.
A. Stepanov 《Statistical Papers》2007,48(1):63-79
LetX
1,X
2, … be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with some continuous distribution functionF. LetX(n) be then-th record value associated with this sequence and μ
n
−
, μ
n
+
be the variables that count the number of record values belonging to the random intervals(f−(X(n)), X(n)), (X(n), f+(X(n))), wheref−, f+ are two continuous functions satisfyingf−(x)<x, f+(x)>x. Properties of μ
n
−
, μ
n
+
are studied in the present paper. Some statistical applications connected with these variables are also provided. 相似文献
5.
Let Δ
k:n
= X
k,n
− X
k-1,n
(k = 1, 2, . . . , n + 1) be the spacings based on uniform order statistics, provided X
0,n
= 0 and X
n+1,n
= 1. Obtained from uniform spacings, ordered uniform spacings 0 = Δ0,n
< Δ1,n
< . . . < Δ
n+1,n
, are discussed in the present paper. Distributional and limit results for them are in the focus of our attention. 相似文献
6.
Let K n (a) be the number of observations in the interval (M n ,?a, M n ), where M n is the maximum value in a sequence of size n. We study the asymptotic properties of K n (a) under the F α-scheme and discuss the influence of the associated sequence α n on the limit behaviour of this random variable. 相似文献
7.
Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different “robust” policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about the parameters of a model, the lag specification, the serial correlation of shocks, and the effects of real‐time data in one coherent structure. We consider both parametric and nonparametric specifications of this structure and use them to estimate the uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy. We then use our estimates to compute robust Bayesian and minimax monetary policy rules, which are designed to perform well in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that the aggressiveness recently found in robust policy rules is likely to be caused by overemphasizing uncertainty about economic dynamics at low frequencies. (JEL: E52, C32, D81) 相似文献
8.
Alexei Onatski 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2009,77(5):1447-1479
In this paper we study high‐dimensional time series that have the generalized dynamic factor structure. We develop a test of the null of k0 factors against the alternative that the number of factors is larger than k0 but no larger than k1>k0. Our test statistic equals maxk0<k k1(γk−γk+1)(γk+1−γk+2), where γi is the ith largest eigenvalue of the smoothed periodogram estimate of the spectral density matrix of data at a prespecified frequency. We describe the asymptotic distribution of the statistic, as the dimensionality and the number of observations rise, as a function of the Tracy–Widom distribution and tabulate the critical values of the test. As an application, we test different hypotheses about the number of dynamic factors in macroeconomic time series and about the number of dynamic factors driving excess stock returns. 相似文献
9.
The author clarifies the concept of "historical politics"; compares its practice in Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and (over the last two to three years) Russia; and considers its harmful consequences for both international relations and domestic political pluralism. 相似文献
10.