Misestimating Betting Behavior: The Role of Negative Asymmetries in Emotional Self Prediction

This paper addresses the role of negative asymmetries in emotional self-prediction by looking at the extent to which individuals misestimate their own betting behavior in sequential gambles. In a series of three experimental studies, we demonstrate that losses lead to higher than planned bets whereas bets are on average carried over after gains. Such asymmetric deviations from the plan emerge (1) when monetary and non-monetary incentives are used, and (2) when participants face fair and unfair gambles. The asymmetry is based on people’s inability to predict how much the negative emotions generated by a bad experience (e.g. the loss) will influence them to put more effort (e.g. bet more) than planned in an attempt to re-establish a homeostatic state in the prospect of a good experience (e.g. winning).     

Changes in risky gambling prevalence among a New Zealand population cohort

Evidence suggests that problem gambling is an unstable state where gamblers move into and out of risk over time. This article looks at longitudinal changes in risky gambling and the factors associated with an increased risk (measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) in the current New Zealand context, which has experienced a doubling of the electronic gaming machine (EGM) market over the last two decades. Respondents from a nationally representative baseline sample (n = 2672) were recontacted two years later to assess changes in gambling behaviours. Among the 901 respondents reached at follow-up, average gambling risk increased over time, and the prevalence of those who had at least some level of gambling risk (i.e. low-risk or greater) more than doubled (from 4.7% to 12.4%). The majority (80.2%) of those who were at risk at follow-up had not been at risk at baseline. Multivariate linear regression analyses show that the predictors of low to moderate increased risk include Pacific ethnicity; high neighbourhood deprivation status; baseline frequent, continuous gambler type; baseline PGSI status; and playing EGMs. These findings highlight the need to develop theories of gambling addiction trajectories and to identify the earliest point along the trajectory where public health interventions should occur.     

Full of Sound and Fury,Signifying Something: The Impact of Autonomic Arousal on EGM Gambling

An experiment was conducted to observe the influence of autonomic arousal on subsequent gambling behavior. Thirty-seven male and 32 female regular Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) players were recruited through newspaper advertisements. Participants were randomly assigned to either: (1) a control condition, or (2) an experimental condition that introduced a loud white-noise event (80 db) at fixed 120 s intervals throughout the 5-min EGM gambling session. Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) measurements showed that the manipulation was successful in elevating autonomic arousal. The results showed differences in behavioral response to the manipulation based on prior experience with gambling problems. Persons with many gambling problems had lower average bet-sizes in the white-noise condition compared to the control, while those with few or no problems had higher average bet-sizes. The results suggest that arousal may provide different signals to gamblers with few versus many problems. Gamblers with many problems may interpret their arousal as a sign that they will soon lose money, while gamblers with few or no problems may associate feelings of arousal exclusively with winning.     

An Experiment on the Social Facilitation of Gambling Behavior

Research and theory regarding the social facilitation effect generates the expectation that the presence of other gamblers (or co-actors) in a gaming venue is likely to intensify individual gambling behavior and magnify losses. Fifty male and 66 female participants (116 total) played a computer-simulated electronic gaming machine with a fixed winning sequence, followed by an indefinite losing sequence. Measures of the intensity of gambling behavior included the final payout (a direct measure of losses), average bet-size, number of trials played, and the speed of play. Some participants received false feedback from the computer designed to suggest that other gamers in adjacent rooms were playing and sometimes winning at the same game. Persons who received both sight and sound information, including winning bells and instant messages regarding the wins of other (fake) players, placed more bets and lost more money compared to the other conditions with less information.     

The Four Es 1-Year Later: A Tool for Predicting the Development of Gambling Problems

The Four Es is a 40-item scale measuring psychological risk for the development of problem gambling behavior. One-year follow-up interviews (n = 395) from a previously reported phone survey in Queensland, Australia (n = 2,577) (Rockloff & Dyer, 2006) tested the ability of the Four Es instrument to prospectively identify persons who would later develop gambling problems. Two groups of participants were selected for the 1-year follow-up interviews, including (1) persons who had gambling problems, high-risk alcohol abuse problems, and/or substance abuse problems (abuse group); and (2) a random selection of other persons from the original survey (random group). The results indicated that the “Excess” trait, which measures impulsive behavior, was predictive of relative increases in gambling problems for both groups over the 1-year period. Additionally, the Four Es questionnaire showed good psychometric properties in the surveys, with a test-retest reliability of r = .70 and a Cronbach’s alpha reliability of α = .90 and .92 in the original and follow-up interviews, respectively.     

Olympic rankings based on objective weighting schemes

In this paper, we propose an objective principal components weighting scheme for all-time Winter Olympic gold, silver and bronze medals based solely on the number of medals won. Our results suggest that the approximately equal weights be assigned (or the total medal counts be used regardless of color) if all of the three medal types are retained for ranking purposes. When the proposed methodology is tested against five alternative weighting schemes that have been suggested in the literature using the results for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics, we find a significant agreement in the country rankings. Furthermore, our implementation of principal components variable reduction strategy results in the identification of silver as the best representative medal count for parsimonious Winter Olympics rankings.KEYWORDS: Olympic rankings, principal components analysis, variable reduction strategy, medal counts, objective weighting schemeJEL Classifications: C18, C38, C43     

Toward a teacher solidarity lens: former teachers of color (re)envisioning educational research

Based on a two-year self-study by a group of early-career scholars of color, we explore and purposefully name our role, within the contemporary context of neoliberal reform, as educational researchers of color who are former K-12 teachers. We capture the insights that emerged from our self-study through a close reading of dominant neoliberal educational reform discourses, particularly through an examination of the writings of Michelle Rhee and Wendy Kopp. Along three dimensions of: (1) experience as teachers; (2) solidarity with teachers; and (3) analyses of racism in schooling, we characterize prominent discourses through which educators, researchers, and the public describe teachers and teaching. We name these discursive frames to make explicit the assumptions that are embedded in each and the intentional or inadvertent consequences of each. Finally, we propose a teacher solidarity lens through which we strive to approach our research and work with teachers.     

Stressful Life Events Across the Life Span and Insecure Attachment Following Combat Trauma

Attachment orientations are mostly considered to be stable interpersonal patterns. Still, a growing body of literature shows changes in attachment orientations following stressful and traumatic events. This study examined the implications of stressful life events (SLEs) throughout the life cycle in insecure attachment orientations (anxious attachment and avoidant attachment). The sample included 664 Israeli war veterans from the 1982 Lebanon War, of whom 363 suffered from acute combat stress reaction (CSR) on the battlefield, and 301 comprised a matched control group without antecedent CSR. The findings reveal a positive correlation between insecure attachment and both acute (CSR) and chronic (post-traumatic stress disorder) stress reactions. In addition, post-war SLEs were more powerful predictors of insecure attachment than other types of SLEs. Combat exposure, as well as pre-war SLEs in childhood and adulthood, made differential contributions to both types of insecure attachment orientations. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas

Modeling the dependence between uncertainties in decision and risk analyses is an important part of the problem structuring process. We focus on situations where correlated uncertainties are discrete, and extend the concept of the copula‐based approach for modeling correlated continuous uncertainties to the representation of correlated discrete uncertainties. This approach reduces the required number of probability assessments significantly compared to approaches requiring direct estimates of conditional probabilities. It also allows the use of multiple dependence measures, including product moment correlation, rank order correlation and tail dependence, and parametric families of copulas such as normal copulas, t‐copulas, and Archimedean copulas. This approach can be extended to model the dependence between discrete and continuous uncertainties in the same event tree.