Childhood mortality spatial distribution in Ethiopia

The risk of a child dying before completing five years of age is highest in Sub-Saharan African countries. But Child mortality rates have shown substantial decline in Ethiopia. For this study, the 2000, 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic Survey (EDHS) was used. Generalized linear mixed model with spatial covariance structure was adapted. The model allowed for spatial correlation, and leads to the more realistic estimate for under-five mortality risk factors. The analysis showed that the risk of under-five mortality shows decline in years. But, some regions showed increase in years. The study highlights the need to implement better education for family planning and child care to improve the under-five mortality situation in some administrative areas.     

A Multivariate Quantile Predictor

ABSTRACT

We introduce a nonparametric quantile predictor for multivariate time series via generalizing the well-known univariate conditional quantile into a multivariate setting for dependent data. Applying the multivariate predictor to predicting tail conditional quantiles from foreign exchange daily returns, it is observed that the accuracy of extreme tail quantile predictions can be greatly improved by incorporating interdependence between the returns in a bivariate framework. As a special application of the multivariate quantile predictor, we also introduce a so-called joint-horizon quantile predictor that is used to produce multi-step quantile predictions in one-go from univariate time series realizations. A simulation example is discussed to illustrate the relevance of the joint-horizon approach.     

Thinking about "culture": some programme pointers

This article exhorts development workers to develop an understanding of their own cultural heritage in order to understand how cultural subjectivity influences their work. While not endorsing "cultural relativism," the authors stress that women must work within their own cultures to develop empowerment and combat culturally legitimized practices which are harmful to women. Cultural constructs must be examined in order to understand such issues as the Northern tendency to encourage personal individualism and the Southern tendency to organize along communal lines. Gender identity is also a social construction which calls for a consideration of each situation (or harmful practice) as uniquely based in a given cultural context. General agreement exists, however, that in order to tackle gender oppression, women must be empowered and their status must be improved. Thus development initiatives should support longterm investment in research and programs, illiteracy rates must be decreased, and educational opportunities must be sought in every program. Women's groups must link up to share resources with each other and with traditional nongovernmental organizations. Governments should 1) integrate a gender component into every Ministry; 2) emphasize literacy for girls and women; 3) support local women's initiatives; 4) provide gender-sensitive training for professionals in critical fields; 5) increase attention to the needs of young women; and 6) offer more women visible official posts in public service.