Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

Economic Crisis and Job Quality in Spain: A Multi-dimensional and Micro-data Empirical Approach

Through a representative sample of 9,100 and 8,755 employees in 2008 and 2010, and a using two-stage structural equation model, this article empirically analyses the multi-dimensional determinants (direct effects) of job quality in Spain. The research concludes that: #1 despite the economic crisis, job quality improved over the analysis period; #2 there was a shift in job quality explanation towards a more complete model with greater preponderance of the dimensions connected with the workplace relationships, work intensity, working conditions and work–life balance in detriment to dimensions connected with the intrinsic job quality and extrinsic rewards. These results suggest the importance of the working environment and social relationships, beyond the quality of the workplace, as important tools of employment public policy to improve labor markets and to overcoming the economic crisis.     

Society without the social: the Spanish labour movement and the rise of the social, 1840–1880

Focusing on the Spanish case, this article addresses two fundamental questions: why were many unionized workers sceptical about state intervention in labour issues throughout the nineteenth century, and why did this attitude begin to change from the 1860s onwards? Its main thesis is that workers’ attitudes derived ultimately from different historical notions of ‘society’ that shaped their perceptions and experiences of labour relations and their attitude toward the role of the state. Thus, a notion of society as an aggregation of individuals shaped unionized Spanish workers’ hostility toward state intervention since the creation of the first unions in the 1840s. From the 1860s onward, a new conception of collective relations, namely ‘the social’, began to transform some workers’ expectations of the role of the state in labour conflicts. The main factor that explains this change, it is argued, lies in the relationship between the workers’ imaginary, their actions, and their expectations about these actions.     

Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

The study demonstrates the key role of expenditure policies in explaining fiscal developments during EMU in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries. It compares actual primary expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. Moreover, the implications for debt trends are calculated. Results show that all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies already before the crisis. Consequently, expenditure and debt paths were much higher compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Rule-based expenditure policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. An empirical analysis of the determinants of countries’ expenditure stance confirms the need for stronger fiscal rules and institutions in the euro area.     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

Relationship between duration of second stage of labour and postpartum anaemia

Aim

To assess the relationship between the duration of the second stage of labour and postpartum anaemia during vaginal birth.

Les transferts de fonds et leur effet sur les indicateurs du marché du travail: illustration par le cas mexicain

L'effet des envois de fonds sur les indicateurs du marché du travail est abondamment traité dans la littérature, à partir de microdonnées en général. Les macrodonnées, plus rarement utilisées, posent un problème d'endogénéité lié aux corrélations possibles de la variable relative aux transferts. Dans cette analyse, fondée sur des données de panel relatives au Mexique, les auteurs cherchent à contourner le problème en utilisant un estimateur GMM en système. Ils montrent que les envois de fonds élèvent les taux d'activité tout en réduisant le nombre des heures travaillées, la fréquence de l'emploi «critique» (c'est‐à‐dire de mauvaise qualité) et la durée des épisodes de chômage.     

New lower bounds for the second variable Zagreb index

The aim of this paper is to obtain new sharp inequalities for a large family of topological indices, including the second variable Zagreb index \(M_2^{\alpha }\), and to characterize the set of extremal graphs with respect to them. Our main results provide lower bounds on this family of topological indices involving just the minimum and the maximum degree of the graph. These inequalities are new even for the Randi?, the second Zagreb and the modified Zagreb indices.     

Usability and Feasibility Study of a Remote Cognitive Behavioral Therapy System with Long-Term Unemployed Women

We present the results of the use of a cognitive behavioral therapeutic intervention tool to improve the mental, physical, and social health of a group of long-term unemployed women in Spain. Method: We sent automated text messages (SMS) to the mobile phones of long-term unemployed women selected at random from public social services. During a 28-day intervention period, women received four daily automated text messages on her mobile phone on a predetermined hourly schedule. We measured depression symptoms at the start and end of the intervention and we analyzed qualitative data to determine the acceptability of a remote SMS program. Results: Depression symptoms using the Personal Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), went from an average of 13.8 at baseline to 4.9 at the end of 28 days (p?=?0.89). One hundred percent of the women reported that they liked receiving the text messages and most found them helpful.     

A simulation study of the Bennett test and Miller test for coefficients of variation

In the article, properties of the Bennett test and Miller test are analyzed. Assuming that the sample size is the same for each sample and considering the null hypothesis that the coefficients of variation for k populations are equal against the hypothesis that k ? 1 coefficients of variation are the same but differ from the coefficient of variation for the kth population, the empirical significance level and the power of the test are studied. Moreover, the dependence of the test statistic and the power of the test on the ratio of coefficients of variation are considered. The analyses are performed on simulated data.