Foot-and-Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.     

Manufacturing Proactiveness and Performance*

Since Skinner's [40] landmark article depicting the manufacturing function as the “missing link” in corporate strategic processes, a portion of the blame for inferior performance in many firms has been attributed to the subordinate strategic position of manufacturing. It has been argued that part of the solution to misalignments between the capabilities possessed by manufacturing and the requirements dictated by customers is for manufacturing to take a more proactive stance. However, little research has been reported which examines manufacturing proactiveness empirically. In this paper, we address this gap by developing an operational definition of manufacturing proactiveness and testing empirically whether a link exists between proactiveness and performance based on data collected from a sample of manufacturers. Based on the manufacturing strategy literature, we identify two major dimensions of manufacturing proactiveness: (1) the degree of manufacturing's involvement in the strategic processes of the business unit; and (2) the degree of commitment to a long-term program of investments in manufacturing structure and infrastructure aimed at building capabilities in anticipation of their need. We develop reliable scales for measuring each of the dimensions of proactiveness and use the data to provide evidence of a clear link between manufacturing proactiveness and business performance. We show that investments in structural programs coupled with either high levels of manufacturing involvement in strategic processes or planned investments in infrastructural programs correlate with higher than average performance.     

Effects of placement point of background music on shopping website

Consumer on-line behaviors are more important than ever due to highly growth of on-line shopping. The purposes of this study were to design placement methods of background music for shopping website and examine the effect on browsers' emotional and cognitive response. Three placement points of background music during the browsing, i.e. 2 min., 4 min., and 6 min. from the start of browsing were considered for entry points. Both browsing without music (no music) and browsing with constant music volume (full music) were treated as control groups. Participants' emotional state, approach-avoidance behavior intention, and action to adjust music volume were collected. Results showed that participants had a higher level of pleasure, arousal and approach behavior intention for the three placement points than for no music and full music. Most of the participants for full music (5/6) adjusted the background music. Only 16.7% (3/18) participants for other levels turn off the background music. The results indicate that playing background music after the start of browsing is benefit for on-line shopping atmosphere. It is inappropriate to place background music at the start of browsing shopping website. The marketer must manipulated placement methods of background music for a web store carefully.     

The amount of ergonomics and user involvement in 151 design processes

Ergonomics, usability and user-centered design are terms that are well known among designers. Yet, products often seem to fail to meet the users' needs, resulting in a gap between expected and experienced usability. To understand the possible causes of this gap the actions taken by the designer during the design process are studied in this paper. This can show whether and how certain actions influence the user-friendliness of the design products. The aim of this research was to understand whether ergonomic principles and methods are included in the design process, whether users are involved in this process and whether the experience of the designer (in ergonomics/user involvement) has an effect on the end product usability. In this study the design processes of 151 tangible products of students in design were analyzed. It showed that in 75% of the cases some ergonomic principles were applied. User involvement was performed in only 1/3 of the design cases. Hardly any correlation was found between the designers' experience in ergonomic principles and the way they applied it and no correlations were found between the designers' experience in user involvement and the users' involvement in the design process.     

A reduced form of the Workplace Bullying Scale – the EAPA-T-R: A useful instrument for daily diary and experience sampling studies

The need for more longitudinal studies (i.e. daily diary and experience sampling studies) focused on counterproductive work behaviours such as bullying requires shorter scales that at the same time do not compromise their content validity. Our main objective is to develop and validate a reduced version of the Workplace Bullying Scale (Escala de Abuso Psicológico Aplicado en el Lugar de Trabajo): the EAPA-T-R. Two studies (Study 1: 1506 and Study 2: 932 employees, respectively) were conducted to evaluate its psychometric properties and to ensure the external validity of the EAPA-T-R. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to reduce the current 12-item scale to a more parsimonious 4-item scale. Moreover, the psychometric properties of potential models were compared. Subsequently, the new scale was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis. Likewise, statistically significant relationships were found between the EAPA-T-R and other dimensions evaluated, such as job characteristics, transformational leadership, engagement, job satisfaction, and subjective performance. Moreover, bullying mediated the relationship between transformational leadership and burnout. To sum up, the EAPA-T-R showed good reliability and validity across studies, supporting its use in future research. The benefits of this short scale for daily diary and experience sampling studies and when using large surveys are discussed.     

Estimation and Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Distribution Models with Varying Linear‐Index

More flexible semiparametric linear‐index regression models are proposed to describe the conditional distribution. Such a model formulation captures varying effects of covariates over the support of a response variable in distribution, offers an alternative perspective on dimension reduction and covers a lot of widely used parametric and semiparameteric regression models. A feasible pseudo likelihood approach, accompanied with a simple and easily implemented algorithm, is further developed for the mixed case with both varying and invariant coefficients. By justifying some theoretical properties on Banach spaces, the uniform consistency and asymptotic Gaussian process of the proposed estimator are also established in this article. In addition, under the monotonicity of distribution in linear‐index, we develop an alternative approach based on maximizing a varying accuracy measure. By virtue of the asymptotic recursion relation for the estimators, some of the achievements in this direction include showing the convergence of the iterative computation procedure and establishing the large sample properties of the resulting estimator. It is noticeable that our theoretical framework is very helpful in constructing confidence bands for the parameters of interest and tests for the hypotheses of various qualitative structures in distribution. Generally, the developed estimation and inference procedures perform quite satisfactorily in the conducted simulations and are demonstrated to be useful in reanalysing data from the Boston house price study and the World Values Survey.     

A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

Multi-objectives exception management model for semiconductor back-end environment under turnkey service

On-time delivery is the need for customer satisfaction which is a critical factor in the survival of the semiconductor industry. The on-time-delivery performance of the whole semiconductor turnkey service depends on the performance of the back-end factories. Unfortunately, undesirable and inevitable production variations make it difficult to maintain and improve a factory's performance and more objectives such as cycle time, throughput rate and the due-date accuracy need to be simultaneously considered. This paper presents an exception management model in order to compromise the contradicting needs of delivery accuracy, throughput rate and cycle time. The exception model can be divided into three parts: (1) an integrated performance index is proposed to compromise multiple performance measures; (2) an AWDL (available WIP deviation level) determination model is designed to gather proper AWDLs for triggering exceptions and (3) a WIP correction action is proposed to make abnormal WIP levels back to normal levels as soon as possible. To evaluate the proposed WIP exception management model, a simulation model is constructed and experiments are then conducted. The simulation results show that the proposed model helps back-end factories to set proper exception triggering conditions, reduce uncertainty occurrences and achieve better performances on due dates.     

Additive Outlier Detection and Estimation for the Logarithmic Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model

This study investigates the influences of additive outliers on financial durations. An outlier test statistic and an outlier detection procedure are proposed to detect and estimate outlier effects for the logarithmic Autoregressive Conditional Duration (Log-ACD) model. The proposed test statistic has an exact sampling distribution and performs very well, in terms of size and power, in a series of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the test statistic is robust to several alternative distribution assumptions. An empirical application shows that parameter estimates without considering outliers tend to be biased.