Characteristics of a central change programme within a governmental bureaucracy: a grounded theory study

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to present a theory of organisational change within the setting of a governmental bureaucracy. Design/methodology/approach Orthodox grounded theory is employed in the setting of a change programme in 12 Audit departments of the Dutch Ministries (public-sector). Findings The examined organisational change has specific characteristics. The Dutch ‘ministerial autonomy’ and the clearly recognizable role types of the key figures involved have a strong impact on the change programme and the realisation of its goals. Research limitations/implications Findings are derived on the basis of a substantive case study of the change programme of the Dutch Departmental Audit function. The research sheds new light on characteristics related to the occupational group of Chartered Accountants and characteristics of a governmental bureaucracy and it helps to understand change programmes within this bureaucracy. Practical implications The grounded theoretical model draws attention to the impact of key figures and circumstances on a change programme within the central government. Originality/value The paper builds on theories of organisational change but applies them in the typical context of the Dutch civil service where ministerial autonomy, on the one hand, and a move in the direction of more centrally organised activities (concern idea), on the other, require a difficult balancing act of all players in the change arena.     

Comparing quantile residual life functions by confidence bands

In this article we present a nonparametric method for constructing confidence bands for the difference of two quantile residual life (qrl) functions. These bands provide evidence for two random variables ordering with respect to the qrl order. The comparison of qrl functions is of importance, specially in the treatment of cancer when there exists a possibility of benefiting from a new secondary therapy. A qrl function is the quantile of the remaining life of a surviving subject, as it varies with time. We show the applicability of this approach in Medicine and Ecology. A simulation study has been carried out to evaluate and illustrate the performance and the consistency of this new methodology.     

现代消费主义的理性思考

消费是人为了生存而进行的一种基本活动,一种生活方式。但随着科学技术的发展和经济的增长,现代社会已经进入到了生产过剩的时代,这必然引起大量的挥霍性消费随之而来。为此,本来作为人的生存方式的消费就成为一种违背人类可持续生存和发展利益的消费,最终也成为人类生存的最大威胁之一,因而,再次审视现代社会的消费观的理论基础是一项迫切的任务。     

An empirical application of multidimensional scaling to advertising pretesting

One of the least-managed aspects of advertising management may well be that of effectiveness measurement. The problem of obtaining satisfactory indications of advertising effectiveness is particularly critical in pretesting since the rationale for pretesting is to evaluate advertisements before their release for broadscale media distribution. Therefore, the primary purpose of the research reported here is to provide empirical evidence of the value of multidimensional scaling methods to pretesting advertising. The article demonstrates how nonmetric methodology obviates the disadvantages of such methods as consumer jury tests and rating scales. A secondary purpose of the research project is to demonstrate the value of pretesting itself by comparing the perceptions of target market consumers with those of selected group of advertising professionals.     

Loan performance and race

Recent studies find evidence of racial discrimination in mortgage markets. Although these studies explore loan approval rates for whites versus minorities, they do not specifically consider loan performance, either in the form of default rates or loan administration costs. This study considers discrimination in the used car credit market, where the collateral is not subject to location externalities, collateral value and quality do not vary as much as in real estate, and the loan terms are shorter. We find administration costs and default rates are higher for minorities than for whites, controlling for age, income, home ownership, wealth, occupation, loan terms, and geographic location.     

The decreasing percentile residual life ageing notion

Earlier researchers have studied some aspects of the classes of distribution functions with decreasing α-percentile residual life (DPRL(α)), 0<α<1. The purpose of this paper is to note some further properties of these classes, and to initiate a theory of non-parametric statistical estimation of DPRL(α) functions. Specifically, the close relationship between the DPRL(α) and the increasing failure rate ageing notions is studied. Other close relationships, between the DPRL(α) ageing notions and the percentile residual life stochastic orders, are described, and further properties of the above classes of distributions are derived. Finally, we introduce an estimator of the percentile residual life function, under the condition that it decreases, and we prove its strongly uniform consistency.     

The Union Effect on Wages in Chile: A Two‐Stage Approach Using Panel Data

We estimate the union effect on wages in Chile to be between 18 and 24 per cent. We follow a two‐stage procedure that allows us to correct the endogeneity of union status and to separate true from spurious dependence, by exploiting the union history of individuals using panel data. We find evidence of comparative‐advantage sorting in union status, strong true state dependence and a re‐distributional effect of union membership (i.e. wage gains from unionization are larger for lower‐wage earners).     

L-moments of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its extreme value version: estimation,goodness of fit and application to earthquake data

Understanding patterns in the frequency of extreme natural events, such as earthquakes, is important as it helps in the prediction of their future occurrence and hence provides better civil protection. Distributions describing these events are known to be heavy tailed and positive skew making standard distributions unsuitable for modelling the frequency of such events. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its extreme value version have been widely studied and applied due to their attractive properties. We derive L-moment equations for these distributions and propose novel methods for parameter estimation, goodness-of-fit assessment and model selection. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the L-moment estimators, which is compared to that of the maximum likelihood estimators, demonstrating the superiority of the proposed methods. To illustrate these methods in a practical application, a data analysis of real-world earthquake magnitudes, obtained from the global centroid moment tensor catalogue during 1962–2015, is carried out. This application identifies the extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders distribution as a better model than classic extreme value distributions for describing seismic events.     

Bayesian Analysis of a Queueing System with a Long-Tailed Arrival Process

Internet traffic data is characterized by some unusual statistical properties, in particular, the presence of heavy-tailed variables. A typical model for heavy-tailed distributions is the Pareto distribution although this is not adequate in many cases. In this article, we consider a mixture of two-parameter Pareto distributions as a model for heavy-tailed data and use a Bayesian approach based on the birth-death Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to fit this model. We estimate some measures of interest related to the queueing system k-Par/M/1 where k-Par denotes a mixture of k Pareto distributions. Heavy-tailed variables are difficult to model in such queueing systems because of the lack of a simple expression for the Laplace Transform (LT). We use a procedure based on recent LT approximating results for the Pareto/M/1 system. We illustrate our approach with both simulated and real data.