The quantile-based flattened logistic distribution: Some properties and applications

In this paper, the quantile-based flattened logistic distribution has been studied. Some classical and quantile-based properties of the distribution have been obtained. Closed form expressions of L-moments, L-moment ratios and expectation of order statistics of the distribution have been obtained. A quantile-based analysis concerning the method of matching L-moments estimation is employed to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We further derive the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the matching L-Moments estimators of the proposed model. Finally, we apply the proposed model to simulated as well as two real life datasets and compare the fit with the logistic distribution.     

Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.     

The revolutions of 1989: Socialism,capitalism, and democracy

Many journalists and scholars will look for the correlation of that chain of spectacular transformations that changed, as if at one blow, the fates of tens of millions of individuals and the hitherto firm bipolar picture of the modern world ... Today, many people are talking and writing about the role of the intellectuals, students, and the theatre, or the influence of the Soviets' perestroika, and economic difficulties. They're right. I myself as a playwright would also add the influence of humour and honesty, and perhaps even something beyond us, something maybe even unearthly.Vaclav Havel, Preface to Gwyn Prins (editor),Spring in Winter: The 1989 Revolutions.     

Dietary and Inhalation Intake of Lead and Estimation of Blood Lead Levels in Adults and Children in Kanpur, India

This research was initiated to study lead levels in various food items in the city of Kanpur, India, to assess the dietary intake of lead and to estimate blood lead (PbB) levels, a biomarker of lead toxicity. For this purpose, sampling of food products, laboratory analysis, and computational exercises were undertaken. Specifically, six food groups (leafy vegetables, nonleafy vegetables, fruits, pulses, cereals, and milk), drinking water, and lead air concentration were considered for estimating lead intake. Results indicated highest lead content in leafy vegetables followed by pulses. Fruits showed low lead content and drinking water lead levels were always within tolerable limits. It was estimated that average daily lead intake through diet was about 114 microg/day for adults and 50 microg/day in children; tolerable limit is 250 microg/day for adults and 90 microg/day for children. The estimated lead intakes were translated into the resultant PbB concentrations for children and adults using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Monte Carlo simulation of PbB level variations for adults showed that probability of exceeding the tolerable limit of PbB (i.e.,10 microg/dL) was 0.062 for the pre-unleaded and 0.000328 for the post-unleaded gasoline period. The probability of exceeding tolerable limits in PbB level was reduced by a factor of 189 in the post-unleaded scenario. The study also suggested that in spite of the introduction of unleaded gasoline, children continue to be at a high risk (probability of exceeding 10 microg/dL = 0.39) because of a high intake of lead per unit body weight.     

Decomposition of Changes in Korean Wage Inequality, 1998–2007

South Korea experienced a steep increase in wage inequality between the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper investigates the causes of the sharp change during that time period by looking at the contributions of changes in the distributions of schooling and unionization. The effects are estimated applying two robust distributional function based decomposition methods on Korean Labor and Panel Survey data for the time period 1998–2007. The results suggest changes in the distribution of schooling can explain about 10 % of the changes in the 90/50 percentile wage gap. The declining unionization rate does not have much impact on the upward trend of Korean wage inequality. In addition, aggregate decomposition results suggest that changes in labor force composition can explain a significant proportion of the total wage changes in the upper-tail of the distribution. Based on our findings we provide a list of policy recommendations to address the wage inequality issue in Korea.     

Estimating ordered quantiles of two exponential populations with a common minimum guarantee time

The problem of estimating ordered quantiles of two exponential populations is considered, assuming equality of location parameters (minimum guarantee times), using the quadratic loss function. Under order restrictions, we propose new estimators which are the isotonized version of the MLEs, call it, restricted MLE. A sufficient condition for improving equivariant estimators is derived under order restrictions on the quantiles. Consequently, estimators improving upon the old estimators have been derived. A detailed numerical study has been done to evaluate the performance of proposed estimators using the Monte-Carlo simulation method and recommendations have been made for the use of the estimators.     

Do changes in patent policy influence firms’ technology strategy? Evidence from manufacturing in India

India made patent policy changes to comply with TRIPs agreement that increased the rights of patent owners. Considering that such policy changes influence both in-house research and development investments and technology licensing from external sources, the firms have to accordingly devise their technology strategy. This study employs a simple and fixed effects multinomial logit regression models to study the impact of policy changes on the technology strategy of 402 firms operating in Indian manufacturing sector from 1999 to 2014. The results show that changes in patent policy have a significant impact on technology strategy of firms.     

Protecting the economic health of the poor in India: Are health mutuals the right medicine?

In addition to government‐sponsored health insurance schemes (GSHIS), many microfinance institutions (MFIs) and community‐based organizations (CBOs) in India have started microinsurance health insurance schemes. These include health mutuals for the benefit of their members. This article explores these as an alternative health‐financing model in India. A literature search produced 926 relevant publications. After applying advanced search options and removing duplicates, abstracts of 324 papers were read and then 47 papers reviewed, and finally 29 were included in this review. Five key themes emerged: (1) “Health for all” arguments and opportunities in favour of micro health insurance schemes; (2) micro health insurance products; (3) impact of micro health insurance schemes; (4) systematic irregularities and regulatory framework; and (5) innovation. We also look at the emerging market patterns that will define micro health insurance products. Health mutuals can effectively provide mass health protection to the poor and not so poor through efficient business models, bespoke benefit packages and multiple payment plans. They can reduce financial vulnerability and improve health outcomes. While GSHIS can cover a substantial tranche of expected health‐related costs, the balance can be supplemented through innovative financial products that reduce financial risk.     

India's demand for international reserve and monetary disequilibrium: Reserve adequacy under floating regime

The main aim of this study is to investigate India's demand for international reserve by focusing on the role of national monetary disequilibrium and to present new benchmarks for assessing the adequacy of international reserves. We assessed India's position in terms of reserve adequacy and found that India is well placed and has sufficient stock of international reserves to meet the minimum adequacy requirements. Also, the results reveal that the central bank is holding substantial excess reserves and the related opportunity cost (1.5% of GDP) appears to be quite considerable. Further, the estimates of reserve demand function suggest that scale of foreign trade, uncertainty and profitability considerations play significant role in determining India's long-term reserve demand policies. More importantly, validating the monetary approach to balance of payment, our results show that national monetary disequilibrium does play a crucial role in short-run reserve movements. An excess of money demand (supply) induces an inflow (outflow) of international reserves with an elasticity of 0.56 which also implies that Reserve Bank of India responds to correct the domestic money market disequilibrium; and did not just leave it completely on the mercy of reserve inflows.