Asymptotical improvement of maximum likelihood estimators on Kullback–Leibler loss

We discuss the general form of a first-order correction to the maximum likelihood estimator which is expressed in terms of the gradient of a function, which could for example be the logarithm of a prior density function. In terms of Kullback–Leibler divergence, the correction gives an asymptotic improvement over maximum likelihood under rather general conditions. The theory is illustrated for Bayes estimators with conjugate priors. The optimal choice of hyper-parameter to improve the maximum likelihood estimator is discussed. The results based on Kullback–Leibler risk are extended to a wide class of risk functions.     

Moment estimators for the beta-binomial distribution

A new moment estimator of the dispersion parameter of the beta-binomial distribution is proposed. It is derived by the method of moments which is constrained to satisfy the unbiasedness of the estimating equation. It gives a better performance than those of the usual moment estimators and the stabilized moment estimator proposed by Tamura & Young. The bias of the estimator is smaller than that of the maximum likelihood estimate in a wide range of parameter space.     

A modified likelihood ratio test for the mean direction in the von mises distribution

The likelihood ratio test (LRT) for the mean direction in the von Mises distribution is modified for possessing a common asymptotic distribution both for large sample size and for large concentration parameter. The test statistic of the modified LRT is compared with the F distribution but not with the chi-square distribution usually employed, Good performances of the modified LRT are shown by analytical studies and Monte Carlo simulation studies, A notable advantage of the test is that it takes part in the unified likelihood inference procedures including both the marginal MLE and the marginal LRT for the concentration parameter.     

Constructing estimators of a mean vector through orthogonal reparametrization and differential equations

The simultaneous estimation of a mean vector is explored by reparametrizing it into its direction and norm components. A type of Pythagorean relation is employed to construct an estimate of the norm component, which results in solving an ordinary amerenuai equation, me james-Diem estimator is snown to be optimum in a class of estimators derived from general solutions of the ordinary differential equation. A new Stein-type estimator in the case of the inverse Gaussian distribution is constructed.     

Saddlepoint condition on a predictor to reconfirm the need for the assumption of a prior distribution

Saddlepoint conditions on a predictor are introduced and developed to reconfirm the need for the assumption of a prior distribution in constructing a useful inferential procedure. A condition yields that the predictor induced from the maximum likelihood estimator is the worst under a loss, while the predictor induced from a suitable posterior mean is the best. This result indicates the promising role of Bayesian criteria, such as the deviance information criterion (DIC). As an implication, we critique the conventional empirical Bayes method because of its partial assumption of a prior distribution.     

Powerful Test of Two Proportions by Assuming a Registered Prior Density

A method for constructing powerful significance tests for the equivalence of two proportions is proposed by assuming prior density values. Recent changes in the medical research environment emphasize the need for choice of a prior density in advance of any study. The proposed test is based on the posterior probability of the alternative model and preserves the significance level with minimal reduction of power. The new test performs better than the familiar mid-p test under the uniform prior density condition. In addition, the computational burden is low. Potential extensions of the proposed test to related problems are also discussed.     

The inverse binomial distribution as a statistical model

A particular case of Jain and Consul's (1971) generalized neg-ative binomial distribution is studied. The name inverse binomial is suggested because of its close relation with the inverse Gaussian distribution. We develop statistical properties including conditional inference of a parameter. An application using real data is given.     

The conditional MLE in the two-parameter geometric distribution and its competitors

The conditional maximum likelihood estimator of the shape parameter in the two-parameter geometric distribution is introduced and explored. The estimator is compared with the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator and the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator.