Estimation of noncentrality parameters

We propose some estimators of noncentrality parameters which improve upon usual unbiased estimators under quadratic loss. The distributions we consider are the noncentral chi-square and the noncentral F. However, we give more general results for the family of elliptically contoured distributions and propose a robust dominating estimator.     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

Manufacturing management strategies for environmental protection: Toward the environmental upgrading of management and manufacturing systems to cope with environmental laws

Recent environmental problems have been caused by business activities and a lifestyle based on mass production, mass consumption and mass disposal. These problems have also become global in scale. Increasingly, global efforts are being applied to preserve and improve the environment. NEC, a worldwide electronics manufacturer, created its own environment action plan called Eco-Action 21. This is a continuously evolving plan applied throughout the NEC group and subsidiaries. Globally, 34 NEC manufacturing sites have received ISO 14001 certification. NEC Tohoku in Japan and NEC Ireland obtained BS 7750 certification even before this. NEC improves subcontractors' environmental behaviour with our accumulated expertize and technology derived from our ISO experience and our own development. Input for this paper was not only from NEC Tohoku and the NEC group, but also from outside NEC.     

Estimating powers of the generalized variance under the Pitman closeness criterion

For estimating powers of the generalized variance under a multivariate normal distribution with an unknown mean, the inadmissibility of the closest affine equivariant estimator is shown for the Pitman closeness criterion.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

Akaike Information Criterion for Selecting Variables in the Nested Error Regression Model

The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is developed for selecting the variables of the nested error regression model where an unobservable random effect is present. Using the idea of decomposing the likelihood into two parts of “within” and “between” analysis of variance, we derive the AIC when the number of groups is large and the ratio of the variances of the random effects and the random errors is an unknown parameter. The proposed AIC is compared, using simulation, with Mallows' C _p , Akaike's AIC, and Sugiura's exact AIC. Based on the rates of selecting the true model, it is shown that the proposed AIC performs better.     

Benchmarked linear shrinkage prediction in the Fay–Herriot small area model

The empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) is a linear shrinkage of the direct estimate toward the regression estimate and useful for the small area estimation in the sense of increasing precision of estimation of small area means. However, one potential difficulty of EBLUP is that the overall estimate for a larger geographical area based on a sum of EBLUP is not necessarily identical to the corresponding direct estimate like the overall sample mean. To fix this problem, the paper suggests a new method for benchmarking EBLUP in the Fay–Herriot model without assuming normality of random effects and sampling errors. The resulting benchmarked empirical linear shrinkage (BELS) predictor has novelty in the sense that coefficients for benchmarking are adjusted based on the data from each area. To measure the uncertainty of BELS, the second-order unbiased estimator of the mean squared error is derived.     

Estimating common parameters of growth curve models under a quadratic loss

Consider the problem of estimating the common matrix of several growth curve models with possibly different unknown covariance matrices under the quadratic loss. The paper gives a combined estimator with a smaller risk than MLE of each growth curve model.     

Bayesian Estimators for Small Area Models Shrinking Both Means and Variances

For small area estimation of area‐level data, the Fay–Herriot model is extensively used as a model‐based method. In the Fay–Herriot model, it is conventionally assumed that the sampling variances are known, whereas estimators of sampling variances are used in practice. Thus, the settings of knowing sampling variances are unrealistic, and several methods are proposed to overcome this problem. In this paper, we assume the situation where the direct estimators of the sampling variances are available as well as the sample means. Using this information, we propose a Bayesian yet objective method producing shrinkage estimation of both means and variances in the Fay–Herriot model. We consider the hierarchical structure for the sampling variances, and we set uniform prior on model parameters to keep objectivity of the proposed model. For validity of the posterior inference, we show under mild conditions that the posterior distribution is proper and has finite variances. We investigate the numerical performance through simulation and empirical studies.     

《文学杂志》、《文艺月报》与左联活动探赜——以北方左联克服“关门主义”的过程为中心

1933年间,北平相继出现了两种大型文学杂志《文学杂志》和《文艺月报》。体裁与内容相似的这两种公开杂志之间有何关系?关于《文学杂志》,据当时左联负责人员陆万美的证言,它被当做了北方左联的机关刊物。但朱正以王志之在其《鲁迅印象记》里所描写的该杂志发刊筹备的情况为证据,主张它不是左联机关刊物。我再三慎重斟酌两种杂志的内容以及两位论者的主张,最后得出了如下结论:与朱正的主张相反,我认为《文学杂志》的产生是北方左联在纠正"关门主义"的过程中所做的实践之一。但这个富有重要意义的尝试也被文总(即指导左联的上级机关)视为"右倾化"的产物而拒绝了。负责开展左联活动的潘漠华、陆万美等人受到批判,左联又改变了方向。《文艺月报》是在文总的指导下以北平社联的负责人员为中心创办的刊物,它是在推动北方左联全体走上"左倾"路线起了很大作用的一种杂志。