Interactive local bandwidth choice

A tool for user choice of the local bandwidth function for kernel density and nonparametric regression estimates is developed using KDE, a graphical object-oriented package for interactive kernel density estimation written in LISP-STAT. The bandwidth function is a parameterized spline, whose knots are manipulated by the user in one window, while the resulting estimate appears in another window. A real data illustration of this method raises concerns, because an extremely large family of estimates is available. Suggestions are made to overcome this problem so that this tool can be used effectively for presenting final results of a data analysis.     

Estimating Parliamentary composition through electoral polls

Summary.  All electoral systems have an electoral formula that converts proportions of votes into Parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focus on estimating proportions of votes and then apply the electoral formula to give a forecast of Parliamentary composition. We describe the problems that arise from this approach: there will typically be a bias in the forecast. We study the origin of the bias and some methods for evaluating and reducing it. We propose a bootstrap algorithm for computing confidence intervals for the allocation of seats. We show, by Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of the proposed methods using data from Spanish elections in previous years. We also propose graphical methods for visualizing how electoral formulae and Parliamentary forecasts work (or fail).