Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

Stress at work and psychological and immunological parameters in a group of Norwegian female bank employees

This study concerned the immunological correlates of stress and work. Self reported stress, emotional state, ego-strength, and defensiveness were examined in relation to measures of cellular immunity (T-cell response to Con A and number of T4 and T8 cells) and humoral immunity (concentrations of immunoglobulins and complement components in plasma) in a group of 96 Norwegian female bank employees. The analyses showed that workload, the stress factor with the highest group mean, was associated with number of T-cells, while strain due to body posture during work was related to concentrations of IgM and C3. Further, depression was significantly correlated with IgM concentration and T-cell number, and anxiety with C3 concentration. T-cell activity was the immunological parameter most consistently associated with psychological well-being, showing positive correlations with defensiveness and ego-strength and negative correlations with anxiety and depression. In conclusion, T-cell number and concentrations of IgM and C3 were sensitive to both work-related stress experience and emotional distress. Coping abilities, indicated by the MMPI Ego-strength scale and emotional distress, were reflected in T-cell activity; insufficient coping was associated with low T-cell activity.     

我国金融支持农业发展的思考

金融促进农业发展，中国社会主义新农村建设离不开金融。由于城乡二元经济结构形成的城乡发展差距、农村信贷制度、统一标准的金融监管、支农资金风险高等原因，国家金融支持农业发展的力度不够，资金供给方向边缘化，农村金融主体自身服务与创新能力不足，民间信贷活跃但弊端多，农村金融服务和管理人才缺乏。提出要加强金融服务创新，优化农村金融服务，通过加强财政政策调控进一步促进农村发展；要根据农业贷款的特点，建立农业风险补偿机制，以降低和减少支农资金的风险和损失和促进信贷；同时完善《担保法》法规，加强农村金融管理和服务人才队伍建设，使金融更好地支持农业发展。     

以科学发展观促进央行内部控制环境建设

作为中央银行的分支机构,应结合实际着力把对科学发展观的理解与把握,转化为谋划金融发展的正确思路,应该贯彻和谐顺央行的理念,坚持以人为本,加强诚信与职业道德建设,从而促进内部控制环境的建设。     

美国进出口银行立法的历史发展及其对完善我国进出口银行制度的启示

美国进出口银行的历史发展,在内容上主要表现为其相对独立法律地位的确立及其与政府行政机构间的关系的成熟和完善,在形式上的表现则是其法律制度的建立和完善。美国进出口银行的历史发展,对完善我国包括进出口银行在内的政策性金融制度具有启示意义。     

世界银行的反腐败战略及其对中国的启示

自从1996年世界银行启动反腐败战略以来,经过多次调整,至今已形成了一个多渠道、全方位而更有针对性的反腐败战略框架。通过加强内部机制建设和管理、严格审查融资项目中的贪污贿赂、援助各个国家的反腐败活动、在国家援助战略中倡导反腐败、支持国际性反腐败合作等措施,世界银行在反腐斗争中发挥了卓越作用。总结世界银行反腐败的经验和特色,尝试提炼出可供中国借鉴的做法,具有十分重要的现实意义。     

国际货币基金组织与世界银行之比较研究

国际货币基金组织和世界银行是全球举足轻重的国际组织,两者在许多方面存在异同。本文从历史沿革、宗旨、组织机构、资金来源、业务领域和贷款程序六个层面对二者进行了比较。     

Participatory shaping of community futures in e‐waste processing hubs: Complexity,conflict and stewarded convergence in a Palestinian context

This article describes an unconventional participatory development approach carried out in an informal e‐waste hub in South‐West Hebron, an area that has collected and processed the bulk of Israeli e‐waste for over a decade. Our approach contributes to the critique and recovery of community representation in participatory development and the search for ways to facilitate representative community engagement. Specifically, we describe our use of a novel Delphi‐like method that allowed us to facilitate a broadly endorsed development trajectory within a heterogeneous and conflicted community. We show how the results yielded by this approach diverged from those that were likely to emerge from more facile forms of participation in ways that are important for other similar e‐waste hubs internationally, which face a destructive status quo on the one hand, or the economically ruinous international policies that ban e‐waste trade from “developed” to “developing” countries on the other. Despite real tensions and cleavages within the affected communities, the process described facilitated a shift from deadlocked environmental versus livelihood positions towards building capacity and regulating existing informal e‐waste trades to preserve livelihoods dependent on these.     

国有商业银行资本市场业务研究

本文首先从国际金融界混业经营 ,国内银行、保险、证券三业互相渗透共同发展 ,我国资本市场发展对银行传统业务的冲击 ,以及加入 WTO挑战的需要等方面论述了国有商业银行拓展资本市场业务的客观现实性。其次 ,从资本市场规模、银行和证券公司、基金、保险公司的业务合作领域 ,以及合作的层次和市场发展潜力等方面阐述了国有商业银行进行资本市场业务创新的动因及其目前在资本市场业务方面存在的问题和解决办法。进而分析了进一步拓展资本市场业务从建立战略同盟、壮大资金实力和实现综合经营有效切入的问题