将分段函数表示为初等函数的方法

本文给出了一种化具有多个分段点，且在各区间段上的表达式为多项式函数的分段函数为初等函数的具体方法．     

Bounded risk estimation of a linear combination of location parameters in negative exponential distributions via three-stage sampling

The paper deals with the problem of bounded risk point estimation for a linear combination of location parameters of two negative exponential distributions. Isogai and Futschik considered the situation when the location and scale parameters are all unknown. They proposed purely sequential procedures and gave second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. In this paper we propose three-stage procedures and derive second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. Further, we compare the results with those from previous work.     

心理学对经济学的贡献

随着人类经济活动的日益丰富与多样化,以新古典理论为核心的主流经济学不断与现实经济世界产生矛盾与冲突,许多经济现象仅通过对理性人模型的量变扩张已无法解释。认知心理学的发展为经济学考察人类的经济行为提供了坚实的科学依据。被称作＂心理学的经济学＂的行为经济学,剥去了假设理性人光鲜的外衣,强调对行为的分析应以行为的真实心理形成机制为基础,不能以主观的先验假定为依据。行为经济学更适合对我国当前整体经济行为的深入研究。将个体行为纳入经济学分析体系,这对我国构建以人为本的和谐社会具有重要的现实意义。行为经济学修正了主流经济理论中＂自利人＂的假定,吸收社会心理学关于＂利他行为＂等研究成果,不仅与我国传统道德文化相吻合,对当前构建市场经济条件下社会主义核心价值体系更具借鉴意义。     

1978年以来中国改革成功的原因探究——有限理性政府试错式改革与满意实现

实现改革过程中经济社会的平稳和发展即满意,需要政府的合理抉择;而政府的有限理性则决定了合理的政府抉择必须是一个基于解决问题,采取合适试错方式的改革过程。解决问题要求政府通过信息分析,准确诊断社会状况,提出事前能为社会接受的改革方案。合适试错式改革要求有限理性政府通过试错式改革平衡社会发展和稳定的动态要求,掌握改革主导权。就迄今为止的中国改革而言,由于政府在试错式改革过程中牢牢把握住了发展、改革和稳定三位一体的执政理念,时刻注意自己的抉择与经济社会的协调,从而能比较满意地实现改革目标。     

工程项目建设和运营阶段有限理性的应对

工程项目的建设和运营阶段在整个项目周期中占重要地位,而决策者有限理性行为导致项目初期目标在这两阶段发生偏差。分析了有限理性在项目建设、运营阶段的表现之后,提出可以通过项目中的知识管理和信息的事后补充两种方法来应对建设和运营阶段的有限理性,并分别构建了两种方法所对应的模型,希望对工程项目管理具有一定的理论及实际意义。     

The role of aspirations and aspirations adaptation in explaining satisficing and bounded rationality

The explanation of bounded rationality in terms of satisficing has been received with skepticism, but Simon's claim that satisficing reflects aspirations and their adaptation could help resolve the matter, particularly taking account of the amplifications introduced by Selten to include motivational factors. Experimental investigations by Guth and his colleagues provide some support. Open-ended, in-depth interviews by Bewley and Schwartz help explain the factors that influence aspirations (which may differ for different tasks), giving attention to affective influences and also to context. They suggest a positive but more complicated relationship between the relative success in realizing profits aspirations and the adaptation of those aspirations, and also in the consequences that aspiration levels have for bounded rationality.     

有限理性背景之下的情绪功能

有限理性模式是基于一种假设,即时间、资源和智力能量是有限的。因为这些局限性,人类理解和解决问题的思维能力非常有限,通常在决策时,我们只能做到有限理性,难以达到完全理性的要求。作为非理性因素的情绪能够影响各方面的决策,通过背景情绪,与任务相关情绪和预期情绪三种途径在决策中起着重要的作用。     

Bayesian boundedly rational agents play the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

In this paper a model of boundedly rational decision making in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma is proposed in which: (1) each player is Bayesianrational; (2) this is common knowledge; (3) players are constrained by limited state spaces (their Bayesian minds) in processing (1) and (2). Under these circumstances, we show that cooperative behavior may arise as an individually optimal response, except for the latter part of the game. Indeed, such behaviorwill necessarily obtain in long enough games if belief systems satisfy a natural condition: essentially, that all events consistent with the players' analysis of the game be attributed by them positive (although arbitrarily small) subjective probability.