On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

从教育理念的视角解读高等教育大众化

高等教育大众化过程中出现了一系列令人深思的问题,教育理念的陈旧是其中一个重要原因。因此,变革教育理念是适应高等教育大众化发展的迫切要求。本文论述了高等教育大众化进程中转变教育理念的初步设想及其现实意义。     

Wer das Stabilisieren vergisst: Warum eine schöne Abschlusspräsentation noch kein gutes Ende bedeutet

Many organizational change projects fail — despite a well thought out concept, professional project management and a binding implementation timetable. The reason why the expected success doesn’t materialize often lies with the missing maintenance. Once the project is officially completed and the client and project manager withdraw, the manner in which the organization will take up these changes is seldom systematically dealt with. Difficulties often arise when no discrete stabilizing measures are planned. We have derived four central action areas which will be clarified by way of practical examples. It will also be shown what is important to pay attention to in the stabilization phase so that a lasting success of the organizational change project can be ensured.     

梁启超的法律思想新探

梁启超是中国近代史上一位著名的思想家 ,他的法律思想 ,不仅以变法维新为主要内容 ,提倡“德治”、正确处理好“法治”与“德治”的关系、主张宪政、强调在法律规定范围内的自由等 ,也是梁启超法律思想的重要内容     

转型期实现内外均衡的政策搭配研究

中国在入世后的10年左右 ,正处于转型经济中。应该通过调节社会总需求、社会总供给等政策工具 ,实现合理搭配 ,以达到中国宏观经济的内外均衡     

Detecting parameter shift in garch models

This paper applies recent theories of testing for parameter constancy to the conditional variance in a GARCH model. The supremum Lagrange multiplier test for conditional Gaussian GARCH models and its robustified variants are discussed. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics are derived from the weak convergence of the scores, and the critical values from the hitting probability of squared Bessel process.

Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample size and power performance of the supremum LM tests are conducted. Applications of these tests to S&P 500 indicate that the hypothesis of stable conditional variance parameters can be rejected.     

A construal level analysis of organizational change processes

To effectively manage planned change and understand differences in leaders’ and recipients’ responses to it, it is essential to understand how change is cognitively represented by organization members. In this theory-development article, we draw upon construal-level theory (CLT) and conceptually explore the role of change construal level in explaining responses to organizational change. We discuss differences between change leaders’ and recipients’ change construals, and differences in the relationships between change construal level and the response to change as a function of the change activities taking place. Specifically, we argue that high-level (i.e., abstract) construals of change will facilitate the effective initiation of change when the focus is on equilibrium-breaking activities, and that low-level (i.e., concrete) construals will facilitate the effective implementation of change when the focus is on institutionalization of the change. We further propose that leaders’ engagement in visionary leadership increases the likelihood that their generally higher level construal of change will be integrated into recipients’ change construals, elaborating and elevating them, and that recipients’ engagement in upward prohibitive voice behaviors will increase the likelihood that their generally lower construal of change will be integrated into leaders’ change construals, elaborating and concretizing them. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of our framework.     

都市回族社区的文化变迁 --以昆明市顺城街回族社区为例

现代化是我国经济发展的必由之路,这一过程造成都市回族社区的文化变迁.本文以昆明市五华区顺城街回族社区为个案,进行都市人类学的考察,展示其文化变迁.在此基础上,拟就当前中国西部地区实施都市化和现代化过程中,都市回族社区的发展前景,如何处理好回族社区的传统与现代化的关系等问题,提出自己的看法.     

异质性视角下中国农村居民减贫效应研究——基于FGT贫困指数的分解新方法

在我国即将完成脱贫攻坚背景下,异质性在居民减贫并防返贫进程中逐渐起到关键作用。本文通过反事实分析法将收入分布变迁分解为均值、方差以及残差三种变化,进而将其引入贫困分解中,对我国农村及区域贫困进行分解。研究表明,引入收入分布变迁贫困分解结果具有稳健性,且农村居民收入增长效应与离散效应存在非对称性,提高收入已不足以弥补收入差距扩大带来的贫困加深效应,而异质效应和离散效应间存在对称性,居民异质性在减贫进程中逐渐起到关键作用。同时从区域视角看,东部区域异质效应减贫效果明显高于增长效应;中部区域增长效应和异质效应均具有显著减贫效果;而西南区域增长效应的减贫效果最显著。     

广西北部湾港集装箱运输发展研究

广西北部湾港集装箱运输区域空间布局已得到进一步优化,表现为集装箱运输分工态势显现以及环北部湾港口集装箱运输格局发生的变化。这种优化得益于钦、防、北三港的整合,政府的政策推动以及路港之间的共同协作。而"一带一路"、中国东盟合作和大规模铁路建设也为北部湾港集装箱运输发展带来了新的机遇。尽管如此,北部湾港集装箱运输却仍然存在着进驻班轮公司少、港口装卸效率低和口岸服务效率不高等问题,并且面临着来自于自腹地内综合运输网络和环北部湾其他港口的挑战。因此,北部湾港集装箱运输应加速打造区域性集装箱枢纽港,加强营销并科学组织货源,大力开展"散改集"业务,加强与国际大型班轮公司的合作,加快中转业务的发展。